Well got that totally wrong. 3 of the horses I wouldn't have were in the first 4! The non-running as 2yo hoodoo remains however. I thought this year it would be different
Madhmoon ran a cracker. I thought he might have won it at one stage but he came from a fair way back and then didn't quite last home. A great effort and he might be interesting at 10F. Sir Dragonet has run a belter for a horse who was having his first actual race today. Give him some cut in the ground and who knows? Anthony Van Dyck was quoted at 2/1 for the Irish Derby but I would not rule out Sir Dragonet if they clash again. Telecaster was awful and that wasn't his form but it's a bit worrying that Bangkok could not beat the 100/1 shot home either. I felt the Balding horse has been awful value for ages and his Bet365 win at Sandown has been working out terrible. Line Of Duty was on a fools errand today, He was only running because Godolphin had nothing else. A poor show from that outfit. Line Of Duty is in no man's land for now. Delighted with Madhmoon's effort but no cigar.
I really don't think it's up to him. AOB will place his riders on whichever horses he chooses. Ryan Moore seems like a very professional jockey and I imagine he will get his instructions and just do as he's told.
You've been too busy on the Politics thread. We had a thorough discussion of this and there have been 4 winners in the last 100 years. 3 in the last 50, so conclusion it's not easy.
So your definition of “hoodoo” appears to be something that happens less than six per cent of the time. I could accept “not easy” as a definition of something that only happens six per cent of the time. Before today, the Lingfield Derby Trial winner had only followed up at Epsom four times in the last forty years. Is that hoodoo or not easy?
Ryan Moore had a devilish choice to make, if he indeed had a choice at all. Only a few pounds covered most of O'Brien's contenders and the result reflected that fact. Sir Dragonet was only beaten 3/4 of a length in 5th and he was lying second until the last couple of strides. Sir Dragonet has run a monster race for a colt no one had really heard of just five weeks ago. It said a lot about the lack of quality in this season's Derby that Sir Dragonet went off favourite at all and if Moore had a choice it was probably the one most, if not all jockey's would have made in selecting the unbeaten horse. The Racing Post awarded the winner 120 on their Ratings. I would probably err on the side of caution and leave him on 118 myself. I reckon Japan and Broome are a pair of 115 rated colts and The Racing Post gave Madhmoon a personal best by 4 lbs on 118 in 2nd place, which seems a little dubious given his stamina questions coming into the race. Hughie Morrison reflected that it was too much, too soon, for Telecaster and he said they called it right earlier in the year when they took the colt out of The Derby. He rolled out the usual "There's only one Derby though" line in reference to the £85000 lost on supplementing the horse in going back on their original call. Andrew Balding felt Epsom had not suited Bangkok. Anthony Van Dyck, Japan and Broome were all sliced in price for the St Leger to unappetising prices. I am not sure the Derby winner will want that far and perhaps Broome with his soft ground form is most deserving of the shortened odds. My own ante-post St Leger horse Constantinople was also shortened after the Derby and he is a best price of 16/1 now. I backed him at 33/1 for an interest several months ago and I hope he can build on his staying on narrow win in the Group 3 Gallinule over an inadequate looking 10F, when he steps up to real staying trips.
We may find the ground was too fast for Sir Dragonet. He ran a good race but that looked like a poor renewal to me. We needed Sir Dragonet to do a Commander In Chief but wasn't quite up to it. Difficult to know what difference another 3 months and softer going may make, re the Arc. He looked a nice horse and for his size he did well on that track. He must be very well balanced
I should have pointed out that I did not participate in the discussion on this thread because there was no stand out candidates to discuss, the first two in the betting were supplemented in the week of the race and until the final declarations you have no idea what Ballydoyle is going to run because that is up to “the lads”. Since I was not going to post, I did not bother to follow the discussion. On the Politics thread, I could at least respond to evolving circumstances... (when people were not regurgitating the same old arguments)
Disappointing race for multiple reasons, Telecasters complete blowout from a personal point of view, on a line through Japan and Line of Duty his form was more than good enough but races are not run on paper, hopefully he bounces back. The other disappointing aspect is that Telecaster was the only serious contender for the home team, and he was trained by someone with little experience at this level, the horse took them to the Derby unexpectedly rather than it being the plan all along for him. Stoute, Gosden et al, and all their owners, couldnt produce a Derby horse, while 7 emerged from Obriens latest batch of 200 Galileos out of the best mares in the world, and 4 of clones finished in a line of 5, clear of the pacemakers then the rest of the field like a computer game. Total domination is never good anywhere, and jump and flat racing has lost some appeal to me in recent years as a result. How many new fans would have been hooked by that Derby yesterday? 7 of 13 for 1 trainer, all of them lacking personality and charisma, a different result between the closely matched clones every time you run it. And it will be the same pedigrees next year from the next batch of clones,and the year after that, as the breed becomes ever more saturated with Galileo. 5 in line at the finish tells us there is once again no superstar in the Ballydoyle crop, just lots of pretty good horses who will win multiple G1s as a team in numbers. Madhmoon looked the winner 2 out but as expected, didnt have the pedigree to stay well enough and see off the arguably lesser talented Ballydoyle runners. Japan ran a good trial for the Leger. See what the ratings are but this will likely be the lowest rated Derby winner for a long time, sub 120 possible.
Looking back on the race, Sir Dragonet, unraced 2yo, having only his 3rd run finished just ¾l behind the winner. On a more galloping track with some ease in the ground and more experience, surely he can beat these if they meet at Longchamp. Whether he, or any of the Derby runners, are good enough for the Arc remains to be seen. If any are, it must be Sir Dragonet for me - at 20/1 seems decent ew price
I don't think you can use Line Of Duty to gauge the form. He has flopped in both the Dante and the Derby, running to less than 100 in both races. He was only there because Godolphin had nothing else. Japan was probably seriously undercooked in the Dante. He needed that race and he also needed further. The Racing Post had Japan running 12 lbs better in the Derby than he had done in the Dante, so direct reading of the form with Telecaster is probably not feasible. The Morrison colt was fit and ready to go at York. The Dante third Surfman was beaten 11 and a half lengths in the French Derby today, which was 6 and a half lengths further than in the Dante. You can say he didn't run his race today but with his last 3 runs on RPR being 97, 108, 97 then a case might be made for arguing that the Dante might be the overrated race. Dante runner up Too Darn Hot recorded a lower rating in the Irish Guineas than he had in the Dante and they had to give Phoenix Of Spain a 6 lbs personal best in order that Too Darn Hot's rating wasn't lower still. The Official Handicapper had to put Phoenix Of Spain UP 8 lbs and Too Darn Hot DOWN 6 lbs to try to make some sense of the Irish Guineas result and I have a slight concern as to whether the Dante was as strong as first thought. I had felt for a while that this was a mediocre Derby in prospect. I voiced earlier the possibility of a sub 120 winner. I would leave Anthony Van Dyck on 118 myself. He has beaten a non-staying Madhmoon by half a length and equally a non stayer managing to hold off all bar one runner is another reason to question the strength of the form.
Line of Duty was beaten 6L by Japan in the Dante, he was beaten 8L by him in the Derby, Japan improved from the Dante as expected but how much? For all we know Surfman ran a throwout race today like Telecaster yesterday. Form on paper is irrelevant at the best of times and especially so in a season like this it appears.
Just remembered, Anthony Van Dyck ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Produces the Derby(2 years running) and Preakness winners. Perhaps we should be keeping a keen eye on the race this year with a view to next years classics.
Just scrap the form then Eddie. I am tired of explaining my Breeders Cup criterion to you. Keep backing those losers and making excuses. Good luck with that. If you were half as good at tipping as you were at making excuses you might make a profit one day. I doubt it though. Your head is too far up your own arse.
i stopped tipping years ago, and what excuses you talking about? you know about a tiny percentage of my bets on the odd big race, you are the one who rushes on here to put up all your value bets, as far as I can tell none of your antepost advices have won, Persian King was another gubbed today despite getting the value, at least it was only for a few pounds I can tell from your comments you are the one who cares about being perceived as a good tipster, as I said, ive already been there and wore the tshirt, doesnt do anything for me anymore. You know nothing about me, as far as I can tell. I had to wind you up a little bit, was tongue in cheek. You must admit its quite funny that for all the talk of your Breeders Cup Juvenile theory, the race has produced the Derby and Preakness winner.
