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End of season prediction

Discussion in 'Nottingham Forest' started by PasqualeMendoza, Jan 28, 2011.

  1. PasqualeMendoza

    PasqualeMendoza New Member

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    I thought for my first proper article on here, I would do a little research into the remaining fixtures. I was curious as to whether any of the teams with a realistic chance of promotion saw themselves presented with an easier run-in (and was hoping Forest would be this team). As a result, I set about making an estimation of the amount of points that each team in the top half could realistically expect. I made a number of assumptions in this calculation, as I wasn't prepared to dedicate too much time to this pursuit. I divided the league table into 4 parts, the top six, 2nd six and so on. I then analyzed the fixture list, and gave a points estimation based on league position (more points for playing at home, and more points when playing teams lower down). Notably, my model failed to take any account for form, player acquisitions before the window closes (hopefully), or how many days were between games.

    In the end, it was all a bit of a waste of time - as my estimations showed the whole thing to be pretty close. My results were as follows (number represents points to be gained before the end of the season):

    QPR 32
    Cardiff 33
    Norwich 32
    Swansea 31
    Nott'm Forest 32
    Leeds 30
    Watford 28
    Reading 28
    Burnley 24
    Millwall 24
    Leicester 27
    Hull 26

    Of the top 6, Leeds seemed to have the toughest fixture list, with Cardiff having the easiest - but with only an estimated 3 points in it between all 6 teams there seems nothing in it. Of the teams currently trailing the play-off spots, Burnley & Millwall have the toughest games, but none of them have a sufficiently easy run of games to lead them to expect a play-off finish. My expected end of season league table is as follows (I've seperated level teams by current goal difference):

    QPR 84
    Cardiff 80
    Norwich 79
    Nott'm Forest 78
    Swansea 78
    Leeds 75
    Watford 70
    Reading 69
    Leicester 66
    Burnley 64
    Millwall 63
    Hull 63

    Obviously as a Forest fan, I would like to see it looking somewhat differemt. But with there being so few points in it, perhaps that crucial left-back signing could seal the autos for us.
     
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  2. Sven Makes Me Smile

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    I think we'll get more than that. We'll probably get 25 if not 27 at home, i really cant see many teams getting anything at the walkers. And with our away form rapidly improving as the squad grows together we could well get 40 points from our remaining games. It may sound unlikely but dont put it past us. 40 points on your reckoning would put us around 4th which seems improbable but thats how the table is. And putting all rivalries aside I think you have a strong possibility of autos, along with Swansea, Cardiff and Qpr
     
    #2
  3. PasqualeMendoza

    PasqualeMendoza New Member

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    My calculations made no allowment for in-form sides, otherwise Forest and Leicester would have had more points calculated for them. I also did not calculate for any effect from new signings, which would give QPR, Cardiff and Leicester a boost (and hopefully Forest if we can fill the LB slot). Finally, the biggest discrepancy from my method is the weighting I gave sides currently in the top 6 over those in the next 6 places - so undoubtedly things are likely to be as close at the bottom end of the play-off spots as they will be at the top.

    Ultimately any football prediction model is going to fall short, but leaving rivallries aside, I also think my estimations for Leicester are too conservative. With form and signings accounted for, my model would have seen them get more points. While it will be tight, I think the autos are out of reach for Leicester (too many good teams above them with a points cushion that they won't all slip up, and Leicester have to overcome a rotten goal difference). Still, the play-offs a certainly a prospect for them, provided one of the current top 6 has a bad run (which is eminently possible with many games to play - let's hope it's Leeds if anyone).
     
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  4. Nottingham Forest in the Premier League

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  5. Proud Fox

    Proud Fox Well-Known Member

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    I think Forest have a chance just need a defender but thats my opinion. I think we will get the play-offs, now Sven has sorted the back 4 out and with our strike force with money avalible for more signings i think we are heading for the play-offs
     
    #5
  6. AKCJ

    AKCJ Well-Known Member
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    QPR
    Cardiff
    Swansea
    Norwich
    Florists
    Leicester

    Leeds are getting draws all the time and I expect it to be a 'last dayer' between us and Watford.
     
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  7. NFITCL

    NFITCL New Member

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    1 forest
    2 qpr

    ffs nfitpl
     
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  8. Forest-Till-I-Die

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    I think Forest will come second and I don't give a **** about the rest

    COYR

    please log in to view this image
     
    #8
  9. PasqualeMendoza

    PasqualeMendoza New Member

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    With form and now signings (Konchesky - get in there) there's no reason why Forest can't do better than my mathematical prediction - Will the QPR game in a fortnight decide the title winners?
     
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  10. Yak.

    Yak. Member

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    **** me weve got a left back
     
    #10

  11. PasqualeMendoza

    PasqualeMendoza New Member

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    no thanks Yak - but we have indeed got a left back, fina-****ing-lly
     
    #11
  12. AKCJ

    AKCJ Well-Known Member
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    Yes. QPR will win, therefore leaving the title challengers (Norwich, Swnasea and Cardiff) with too much to do.
     
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  13. trickytree29

    trickytree29 Member

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    1) QPR
    2) Forest

    And a Norwich Leicester playoff final
     
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  14. x

    x Well-Known Member

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    you will win the ccc. remember where you herd it first.
     
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  15. Yak.

    Yak. Member

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    your fuking dead right there x
     
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  16. Quagmire

    Quagmire Member

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    top ****ing comment x <ok>
     
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  17. Yak.

    Yak. Member

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    Its official<laugh>
     
    #17
  18. FOREST-RANGERS

    FOREST-RANGERS New Member

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    93 day emergency loan deal???? what the **** is that about????
     
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  19. FOREST-RANGERS

    FOREST-RANGERS New Member

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    (quote bbc)... Nottingham Forest have signed Liverpool left-back Paul Konchesky on a 93-day emergency loan deal.
    Konchesky, 29, signed a four-year contract when he followed then Reds manager Roy Hodgson to Anfield from Fulham in August 2010.
     
    #19
  20. PasqualeMendoza

    PasqualeMendoza New Member

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    FOREST-RANGERS - He's already been on 2 clubs books permanently this year, so he can't sign for a 3rd except on an emergency loan. 93 days means he will be available for every game except the last (and the play-offs if they are needed), but it will also be possible to extend his loan for another month.
     
    #20

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