I thought for my first proper article on here, I would do a little research into the remaining fixtures. I was curious as to whether any of the teams with a realistic chance of promotion saw themselves presented with an easier run-in (and was hoping Forest would be this team). As a result, I set about making an estimation of the amount of points that each team in the top half could realistically expect. I made a number of assumptions in this calculation, as I wasn't prepared to dedicate too much time to this pursuit. I divided the league table into 4 parts, the top six, 2nd six and so on. I then analyzed the fixture list, and gave a points estimation based on league position (more points for playing at home, and more points when playing teams lower down). Notably, my model failed to take any account for form, player acquisitions before the window closes (hopefully), or how many days were between games. In the end, it was all a bit of a waste of time - as my estimations showed the whole thing to be pretty close. My results were as follows (number represents points to be gained before the end of the season): QPR 32 Cardiff 33 Norwich 32 Swansea 31 Nott'm Forest 32 Leeds 30 Watford 28 Reading 28 Burnley 24 Millwall 24 Leicester 27 Hull 26 Of the top 6, Leeds seemed to have the toughest fixture list, with Cardiff having the easiest - but with only an estimated 3 points in it between all 6 teams there seems nothing in it. Of the teams currently trailing the play-off spots, Burnley & Millwall have the toughest games, but none of them have a sufficiently easy run of games to lead them to expect a play-off finish. My expected end of season league table is as follows (I've seperated level teams by current goal difference): QPR 84 Cardiff 80 Norwich 79 Nott'm Forest 78 Swansea 78 Leeds 75 Watford 70 Reading 69 Leicester 66 Burnley 64 Millwall 63 Hull 63 Obviously as a Forest fan, I would like to see it looking somewhat differemt. But with there being so few points in it, perhaps that crucial left-back signing could seal the autos for us.
I think we'll get more than that. We'll probably get 25 if not 27 at home, i really cant see many teams getting anything at the walkers. And with our away form rapidly improving as the squad grows together we could well get 40 points from our remaining games. It may sound unlikely but dont put it past us. 40 points on your reckoning would put us around 4th which seems improbable but thats how the table is. And putting all rivalries aside I think you have a strong possibility of autos, along with Swansea, Cardiff and Qpr
My calculations made no allowment for in-form sides, otherwise Forest and Leicester would have had more points calculated for them. I also did not calculate for any effect from new signings, which would give QPR, Cardiff and Leicester a boost (and hopefully Forest if we can fill the LB slot). Finally, the biggest discrepancy from my method is the weighting I gave sides currently in the top 6 over those in the next 6 places - so undoubtedly things are likely to be as close at the bottom end of the play-off spots as they will be at the top. Ultimately any football prediction model is going to fall short, but leaving rivallries aside, I also think my estimations for Leicester are too conservative. With form and signings accounted for, my model would have seen them get more points. While it will be tight, I think the autos are out of reach for Leicester (too many good teams above them with a points cushion that they won't all slip up, and Leicester have to overcome a rotten goal difference). Still, the play-offs a certainly a prospect for them, provided one of the current top 6 has a bad run (which is eminently possible with many games to play - let's hope it's Leeds if anyone).
I think Forest have a chance just need a defender but thats my opinion. I think we will get the play-offs, now Sven has sorted the back 4 out and with our strike force with money avalible for more signings i think we are heading for the play-offs
QPR Cardiff Swansea Norwich Florists Leicester Leeds are getting draws all the time and I expect it to be a 'last dayer' between us and Watford.
I think Forest will come second and I don't give a **** about the rest COYR please log in to view this image
With form and now signings (Konchesky - get in there) there's no reason why Forest can't do better than my mathematical prediction - Will the QPR game in a fortnight decide the title winners?
Yes. QPR will win, therefore leaving the title challengers (Norwich, Swnasea and Cardiff) with too much to do.
(quote bbc)... Nottingham Forest have signed Liverpool left-back Paul Konchesky on a 93-day emergency loan deal. Konchesky, 29, signed a four-year contract when he followed then Reds manager Roy Hodgson to Anfield from Fulham in August 2010.
FOREST-RANGERS - He's already been on 2 clubs books permanently this year, so he can't sign for a 3rd except on an emergency loan. 93 days means he will be available for every game except the last (and the play-offs if they are needed), but it will also be possible to extend his loan for another month.