If it is so difficult to reach agreements it doesn't sound as if the UK will be leaving very quickly then. Some in government have realized it and are talking about transitional deals that could stretch on for years. Liam Fox said he thought that the UK could simply fall back on WTO rules until he found out that it would not be possible. Slowly but surely reality is kicking in, which is why the prime minister is playing for time. No doubt she is hoping that the supreme court will slow it down even further.
It is a pity you had not advised the hordes of Europeans of the above 'facts' who decided to reject their own countries to relocate to the UK. We would not be heading for Brexit if you had acted sooner.
You have, once again, avoided giving an answer here. Also 'the hordes' you refer to constitute a far lower percentage of the population than is found in other European states - look at the numbers of eg. Poles and Rumanians living in Germany, or Rumanians living in Italy and then compare it to England - and then your 'hordes' pale a little by comparison. There is also another issue here - a while back you brought in material suggesting that Britain would be one of the 2 biggest economies in Europe by 2030. Yet the studies which you omitted are that this would be dependent on a substantial population growth - in order to achieve these future figures Britain would need to increase its population to over 80 million. It would also need nearly a million young migrants every year to keep the balance between working and non working population.
Not all good I'm afraid SH. The boss of Jaguar Land Rover, Dr. Ralf Spath (they are the biggest car exporters in the UK.) has said that there are very strong indications that EU. customers have been veering away from buying British cars since the Brexit vote. If customers are less inclined to buy British goods, or there is a backlash against '' Made in Britain'', then it does not matter whether Britain still has access to European markets or not. We have successfully alienated our best customers already - not good business SH. What business, anywhere in the World, or in any branch, would alienate its best customers in the hope of replacing them at some future date ?
There are plenty of other markets for Land Rover, their export numbers are the highest ever. Of course it helps having a good product, I support the UK by driving a Discovery 4, I look forward to buying the new model next year. I'm sure when the UK sees the negative attitude from the EU negotiators, especially the French, they will buy UK goods where possible. As the UK starts its free trade deals around the world it will vastly increase sales in these markets. The North American sales are nearly as high as Europe, imagine what tariff free trading will do to this market. UK exports to the EU have been consistently dropping for some time as European consumers have had less disposable cash and high unemployment to deal with.
When talking about North American sales you may care to remember that Trump is a protectionist - that he has threatened to place massive tariffs on incoming Chinese goods, and favours American production for American customers. He is not a free marketeer - like the Chinese, his only interest in the free market is to provide a dumping ground for American goods, but to protect his own market.
He has also promised a free trade deal with the UK a.s.a.p. It is the EU that has no chance of such a lucrative opportunity. He is actually keen to go out of his way to damage the institution of the EU, interesting times.
'Hard' Brexit will give Government 'fantastic opportunity' to LOWER food prices THE GOVERNMENT has a "fantastic opportunity" to lower the cost of British families' weekly shop if it opts for a clean break from the European Union, a leading think tank has claimed. By GREG HEFFER, POLITICAL REPORTER PUBLISHED: 09:00, Wed, Dec 28, 2016 please log in to view this image please log in to view this image please log in to view this image please log in to view this image please log in to view this image 627 please log in to view this image 19 please log in to view this image GETTY • PA The PM has been told she has a 'fantastic opportunity' to cut the price of everyday foods By quitting the bloc's Customs Union, a so-called 'hard Brexit', ministers could send the price of a range of everyday foods tumbling, according to the Legatum Institute's Special Trade Commission. In a soon-to-be-released report, the think tank's trade experts will make a series of recommendations to Theresa May's Government for a successful departure from the EU. And near the top of the list will be leaving the EU's restrictive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in order to eliminate quotas and tariffs on all products British farmers cannot grow themselves. This could lead to significant falls in the price of goods such as tuna, bananas, avocados, olive oil, corn, coffee and vanilla. RELATED ARTICLES please log in to view this image New humiliation as Spain rejects Nicola Sturgeon's 'soft' Brexit plan please log in to view this image Ukip lie in wait as ‘dozens’ of Labour MPs could quit before 2020 Speaking at a briefing earlier this month, Legatum Institute research associate Molly Kiniry said: "This is pretty much a no-brainer, you can’t grow bananas in Britain so why would we pay seven or eight per cent [tariff] to import them? "And certainly why would we have any sort of quota on the number of those products that could be imported a year. "We don’t anticipate there’s going to be much pushback from the British farming community on that. "And that should deliver fairly substantial consumer welfare benefits, especially on those foods which are very commonly eaten." She added: "We even pay a 4.5 per cent tariff on communion wafers, which is almost hard to believe." There’s certainly an opportunity for the Government to make policy changes to lower food prices. Legatum Institute research associate Molly Kiniry Leaving the Customs Union would allow Britain to set its own tariffs, which Ms Kiniry told Express.co.uk would offer the Government "a fantastic opportunity to make some changes that would probably lower the price of food for the average Briton while helping our farming community at the same time". She noted how the EU had 12 different tariff lines for tuna, depending on the species, whether it is fresh or frozen and even if it is sold with a head on or off. Ms Kiniry warned, by contrast, other factors could adversely impact food prices, such as regulatory schemes and inflation caused by the fall in the value of the pound since the Brexit vote. She said: "If the pound stays where it is right now and the Government chooses the same policies then food prices will go up." But she added: “There’s certainly an opportunity for the Government to make policy changes to lower food prices."
A free trade deal which will be very one way SH. The USA does not have 'special relationships' it has external relationships which are there for their own benefit. A deal which will open up Britain to all the ravages of the TTIP deal which the EU. wisely defended itself against. The deal is, that Britain opens itself up to gene manipulated rubbish which America cannot dispose of anywhere else. It means opening Britain up to products which do not satisfy EU. safety and environmental standards.
SH. you use these statistics and other external material in the same way as a drunk uses lamposts ie. for support rather than illumination.
Most of these reports are from independent organisations. I know they do not support your pessimistic attitude but you would be advised to read them so you can broaden your knowledge base.
The UK is quite capable of negotiating a mutual trade deal similar to the one just concluded by Australia in a very short time. Australia is very pleased with the outcome. The EU will become increasingly irrelevant.
Another point is SH. Your whole plan appears to revolve around the idea of exchanging Europe for America. As you probably know 95% of imports and exports from, and to, Britain are by ship - your idea involves a dramatic expansion of trans Atlantic trade. British and American port capacity is not geared up for this - only deepening and extending of harbour basins would accomodate this. You cannot simply sign trade deals and think that everything else will automatically fit in with this. In the scenario which you imagine, Britain would need several other ports with the capacity of Felixstowe - preferably facing west. American commercial shipping has been in terminal decline since the 80s with all of the major reeders in the World concentrating on the Europe to Asia route - measured on port capacity there is not one American (Atlantic) port in the World's top 50. To change this would be an environmental nightmare. North European container shipping is concentrated on the relationship between Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Felixstowe and Le Havre, with nearly all container ships taking in at least 4 of those on one journey.
Part of my workload for many years was being in charge of shipping, particularly from the Far East. Most containers came directly into Felixstowe or Southampton without stopping in mainland Europe. We did have some diverted, seized for x raying and many delayed. If there is increased trade then commercial decisions would be made about sole UK goods. The UK has recently built London Gateway, a super port with Europe's biggest logistics park in Europe. Liverpool is also building a deep water sea port. With Felixstowe expanding there is spare capacity in Europe and in the UK. When London Gateway is finished it will be able to handle 6 super sized containers at once with the most efficient handling. You are at least 10 years out of date with your information. There will still be lots of trade between the UK and Europe after Brexit, too many jobs depend on it.
The protectionist EU has ruled out a free trade deal with China for decades which has damaged British companies. Recently the Chinese have indicated they would like a free trade deal with the UK once we have left the EU. Part of my job was working out with the freight forwarders the applicable tariff for each imported product. In the early days import duty and VAT were due to customs on entry before bonded warehouses were used. This is unnecessary hassle if it can be avoided. I cannot believe the EU will want to revert to this system but logic does not come easy to the eurocrats.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...rn-france-brexit-road-beaucaire-a7498116.html A French town is to honour UK's decision to leave by naming a road Brexit Road. I do like the bit that says " ...it emerged the road was actually a circular road that led nowhere." Says it all really.
Not 10 years out of date SH. Once again you are making assumptions about people you do not know. Of the top 50 busiest ports in the World, Felixstowe is on place 37 and there is no eastern seeboard port in the USA. on the list. Their 3 biggest are on the Pacific side ie. Los Angeles (place 19), Long Beach (place 21) and Seattle-Tacoma (place 44). They do not have the port capacity on the Atlantic coast. Felixstowe handles just under a third of the volume from Rotterdam, and less than half of that of Antwerp. There is a lot of building to do if you are serious about a revival of trans Atlantic trade. My son is second officer on one of the Maersk E-Class container ships and I can tell you that most big container ships call at several North European ports whilst in the area - always Rotterdam, often Antwerp or Bremerhaven and sometimes Felixstowe as well.
The UK will have more than enough capacity for the increased trade with the rest of the world. The USA would soon react to increase capacity if required, you are really scraping the negative barrel now. I cannot see a problem even if container ships do dock in Europe first, the goods destined for the UK will be unaffected as those containers remain on board.
Not being negative SH. Just pointing out the possible pitfalls ahead - just like I would point them out to someone about to jump off a cliff. I wouldn't stand there trying to convince them that it wouldn't be so bad after all - like, there are possibilities in this, like the freedom, and sovereignty found in free flight. You still haven't answered my question from earlier - What is your definition of a successfull country ? And don't answer quoting only production figures and GDP. I will scream !
