Dewhurst & Cesarewitch

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Bluesky9

Bluesky9

Philosopher
Jun 21, 2011
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Newmarket will host two of my favourite Autumn races on Saturday so I thought I would start a preview thread to allow all esteemed forum members to share their view.

By way of a brief preview and early selections..

Dewhurst
This is the big battle between Emotionless and Air Force Blue, whilst both have quite rightly risen to the top throughout the later end of the season, for me Emotionless has excited me hugely and I think he could be special and so gets the nod. I am hoping he can win in a style that makes the winter months full of anticipation of a true champion.

Cesarewitch
The marathon slog, made even more gruelling no doubt by the rain soaked ground this year. This is really open once again and has attracted it's usual share of quality jumps trainers as well as flat. I am not entirely sure where my money will be going but I think Sir Mark Prescott will win it. He has William of Orange, Armour du Nuit and Deauville Dancer, any of which I feel could win, if having to nail my colours to the mast at this stage I would go for William of Orange, who hopefully can gain compensation for not winning so far this season, due somewhat to a couple of appalling rides earlier in the year.
 
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Just had a quick scan of the "Ces" field and one that caught my eye was Gordon Elliot's Bayan off a mark of 84. Not sure if he is an intended runner, but the 2014 Ladbroke winner has some decent flat form (last won off 80) and has been running fairly well over hurdles during the summer. 20/1 available generally with the bookies and 37 on Betfair, might be worth a poke if he does come over.
 
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again in the Cesarewitch I really rate the chances of Golden Doyen. However, he’s far, far, far, far, far from certain of getting in but if he does make the line-up then off a featherweight I can see the old boy going close. We will find out tomorrow morning if he’s ‘made the cut’. The Ces though without a Mr Henderson representative is rather like a ‘Miss Marple murder mystery’ without Miss Marple. Lacking, I say, lacking.

Re the Dewhurst I think those bookie chappies have got the heat about right. Can’t see much value in this market to be honest.
 
Newmarket currently report the going as Good to Soft and the weather is predicted to be dry from Thursday until Sunday.

I usually ignore the Cesarewitch as it is dominated by slow old plodders warming up for the season’s jumping with the prospect of picking up some decent prize money.

Amongst the 56 entries at the five day stage, the one that would attract my cash (and the owner’s wrath for me) would be Sir Mark Prescott’s Amour De Nuit; but I cannot see him getting in the field on bottom weight despite the penalty he picked up for his last victory.

I note that Tony Martin has several entries, Willie Mullins and Alan King have a couple each yet they may all have to play second fiddle to David Pipe’s Low Key under claimer Tom Marquand.

For the best part of a month, the Dewhurst has been touted as a two horse race between Air Force Blue and Emotionless. The former is arguably the form pick after his defeat of Herald The Dawn whilst the latter has turned in two impressive performances, the latest being a defeat of Ibn Malik at Doncaster.

The betting suggests that the winner will be one of the big reputations but I think it is folly to ignore Sanus Per Aquam, Tashweeq and the battle-hardened Buratino. Hopefully the field will not be reduced to just five or six, as I expect Aidan O’Brien to run two or three of the four Ballydoyle entries.
 
Some interesting stats for the Ceasrawitch;

  • Winners have been aged 3, 4 (three), 6 (three), 7, 8 and 11.
  • Winners have carried between 7-13 and 9-10 with six between 7-13 and 8-11.
  • Winners have been rated between 87 and 107 with seven between 87 and 94.
  • Seven winners had been drawn between 1 & 12 with four between 1 & 4.
  • Winners have been priced between 9/2 and 66/1 with six at 16s or less, including two favourites.
  • Eight winners finished in the first four on their previous outing under either code.
  • Eight winners had won or been placed in a class 3 handicap or above over 1m 6f or further. Six of the last eight had won or been placed a class 2 handicap over 2 miles.
  • Seven winners had raced between 2 and 7 times during the current season; one had raced more.
  • Six winners (including one seasonal debutant) had failed to win a race during the current season.
  • Seven winners had won a race with a field of 14 runners or more (under either code).
  • All of the winners had had at least 10 career starts.
 
I shall be backing a NH horse and more than likely a Willie Mullins horse too with Digeanta the most likely at the moment

One interesting read that Ryan has been booked to ride Quick Jack
 
My fav race of the year the Ces, so I will be picking apart my fancies and cross ref them with the knowledge on here to pick out the winner.
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again in the Cesarewitch I really rate the chances of Golden Doyen. However, he’s far, far, far, far, far from certain of getting in but if he does make the line-up then off a featherweight I can see the old boy going close. We will find out tomorrow morning if he’s ‘made the cut’.
Click to expand...

Like a golfer who has had a bad first couple of rounds I’m afraid that Golden Doyen hasn’t made the cut for the ‘Ces’. Regular readers, contain your disappointment stoically.
 
No surprise that my possible selection did not make the cut for the Cesarewitch and since the Pipe horse is the ante post favourite the race goes back to being a ‘no bet’.

The final field for the Dewhurst numbers just seven, they being Adventurous (Mark Johnston), Air Force Blue (Aidan O’Brien), Emotionless (Charlie Appleby), Massaat (Barry Hills), Sanus Per Aquam (Jim Bolger), Tashweeq (John Gosden) and Twin Sails (Dean Ivory). Hopefully it turns out to be a good race for those of us just spectating.
 
Im on Sanus Per Aquam 25/1, backed him for the Guineas at 33s and the Derby at 25s.

Hes my favourite 2yo this season, not convinced he is the best or anything but im a sucker for those good Bolger 2yos in the New Approach colours and I just like him for some reason, from the first time I seen him.
 
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OddDog said:
Just had a quick scan of the "Ces" field and one that caught my eye was Gordon Elliot's Bayan off a mark of 84. Not sure if he is an intended runner, but the 2014 Ladbroke winner has some decent flat form (last won off 80) and has been running fairly well over hurdles during the summer. 20/1 available generally with the bookies and 37 on Betfair, might be worth a poke if he does come over.
Click to expand...

Bayan now best-priced 14s and Ben Linfoot has tipped him up. Wish I'd taken some 20s <doh>
 
Der Kaiser said:
Im on Sanus Per Aquam 25/1, backed him for the Guineas at 33s and the Derby at 25s.

Hes my favourite 2yo this season, not convinced he is the best or anything but im a sucker for those good Bolger 2yos in the New Approach colours and I just like him for some reason, from the first time I seen him.
Click to expand...
I agree, Bolger is a bit of a rogue. He's not here to make up the numbers. Intense focus won the dewhurst retired to stud
 
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