Okay, time for some math.
The most important target is, of course, the number of points required. On average, the team finishing fourth has earned 67.4 points, at a rate of 1.77 per game; as we currently average 1.91 points per game we're ahead of the curve. The required total has increased to around 70+ since Everton took 4th but the numbers show in a more competitive season (more big clubs getting turned over) that number decreases substantially.
This season so far 69+ looks like enough but 71 takes us to a 96% chance of 4th.
In goalscoring, as is blatantly obvious, we could do with more. We are currently just behind the average requirement; based on form so far (2.18 home, 1.18 away), we will finish with 61 goals in the ‘for’ column on the league table, and teams finishing fourth have averaged 63 in the past.
Although we are scoring below the average required amount we have scored two-or-more in 45% of our games compared to a fourth place target of 47%. Hopefully the return of Rodriguez and Mane will improve this further and open the floodgates in attack against weaker sides.
Defensively, of course we shine. There's ten clean sheets so far, which means we have shut out opponents in 45% of games. The team finishing fourth has on average managed this in 36% of their games. So far, so good, this should also ease poor statistical representation of our low goal rate. We have conceded 0.73 goals per game against an average 4th place target of 1.01. Looking very lean there, but we need Morgan, Wanyama and Toby back to continue this frugality.
Here's the big one. On current form and with our layout over the season so far,
we are currently 88.1% certain to make the top four. Wonderful, but, a look at positional change over the season indicates that the table only starts to become a useful predictor of final position come January (the old 'bottom at Christmas' bit has merit for a reason, Robson beating it that one year is a statistical wonder). It's only half-reliable after 19 games and from then it's reliability obviously improves week on week.
Until the 25 game mark. This represents two-thirds reliability, or 66%. We need to be firmly encamped in the top four by the time the Liverpool game comes around, at that point we will prove difficult to shift, especially if the squad is fit by that point.
So in conclusion, even if none of us really believe it yet, and it will take a ton of luck and effort, it probably will ****ing happen.
You may all dare to dream.
).
