Daily Thread Wednesday 21st November

ROTO · Nov 21, 2012

Woof

ROTO · Nov 21, 2012

2.40 Market Rasen tomorrow Red Hot Poker 8/1 is my NAP. Write up to come later but feel price will plummet.

ROTO · Nov 21, 2012

ROTO said: ↑

7.00 Kempton

Livia's Dream 14/1

I think Ed Walker's 3 year old filly looks an absolutely ridiculous price at 14/1 and bouncing back from a couple of 'lesser' efforts then I think she will go very well off a mark of 79. In my eyes, she has a progressive profile winning 2 of her 5 handicap starts to date. The latest of these came back in September over today's C+D off a 7lb in what I thought was a very nice performance. Settled just off the pace and travelling wide throughout, George Baker held her together as long as he could and I think she won with a bit more in the tank than her 3/4L victory suggests. The form of that Class 4 race looks very strong with the 3rd Porcini winning her next 3 starts including off a 9lb higher mark. The 6th Just When bolted in by 13L on his only subsequent start in testing handicap at Bath whilst the 2nd Openly had won a Maiden which has prompted the handicapper to raise her 5lb. 2 starts back Livia's Dream ran better than I expected over 1m4f at Windsor in testing conditions when upped 4lb to a mark of 76 as she ran well for a long way before getting weary late on and finishing a 5.75L beaten 6th. The 2nd Aldwich Bay has come out to win again off a 2lb higher mark to solidify the form and I was rather pleased with the effort in the circumstances.

Her last start came at the start of this month when Livia's Dream was stepped into a Fillies Listed contest over 1m5f at Lingfield where she had a very tough task at the weights (at least 10lb inferior than every rival in the field on official terms) and although understandably outclassed I think she performed at least as well as could be expected despite being well beaten (was hampered early on and shuffled back to the rear also). Given that Ed Walker, a trainer who I think is one of the shrewdest operators around, stepped this 3 year old filly into a Listed off a mark of 76 says a lot about what he thinks of her as I feel he wouldn't have risked jeopardising her mark needlessly so he must have thought she would run a big race. The handicapper has upped her 3lb for her effort in the Listed contest to a career mark of 79 but I certainly don't think she's stopped improving yet and the form of her last win has worked out very nicely. With George Baker committed to Gary Moore's Moderator, the excellent Graham Lee takes over in the saddle and looks a very eye catching booking as its his first ride for the yard. She has a lovely draw in stall 2 which should allow Graham Lee to bag the rail just off the pace which should prove an ideal sit. Ed Walker, who has had an absolutely tremendous season so far, has seen his form dry up a bit and is 0-7 in November but that isn't hugely concerning as the flat season is dying down now a bit. I've put up Livia's Dream for her two wins at double prices where she has been well supported on both occasions so if the money comes its a good sign but over a C+D she's proven over and off a mark that I think she has the ability to win off I'm expecting a big run from Livia's Dream and I'm confident she can fill at least one of the three places.
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Argh thats a bit annoying. Can't fault horse or jockey but just pretty rotten she got nabbed close home.

Daily Thread Wednesday 21st November

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Daily Thread Wednesday 21st November

ROTO Well-Known Member

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