4.40 Wolves
Sweet Lavender 50/1
This 4 year old filly obviously has to bounce back in a big way but I think she's more than capable of winning this if coming back to the form she showed in her first two starts as a 3 year old and I think at 50/1 these doubts are negated and she looks rather overpriced. Formerly with Godolphin and Saeed Bin Suroor, this pretty well bred filly obviously had a fair amount of problems as she only made her debut at the end of August last year. Starting out over a 10f trip at Kempton, Sweet Lavender looked badly outpaced before staying on very well at the finish and it was clear that a step up in trip would suit. It obviously wasn't just me who thought there was a lot to like about this effort as she was sent off 11/10f on her next start as she finished a decent 2nd stepped up to 12f again at Kempton. Racing prominently throughout, I really don't think the run of the race suited as it kinda turned into a race where horses with a quick turn of foot benefited at the finish but it was still a decent enough effort to finish a 1.25L runner up (although winner won cosily). The form of that race looks strong, with the 3rd Chabada winning her next 3 starts and she's now an 87 rated animal (should note that this was Chabadas debut so the comparison isn't merely black and white). The 4th Derassa won a maiden on he next start by 10L (Sweet Lavender disappointed in that race) whilst the 5th Moment Juste ran a cracking 3rd behind two progressive rivals in the shape of Gulf of Naples and Exemplary off a handicap mark of 76 on her only subsequent start. As stated, Sweet Lavender disappointed on her 3rd start being beaten 13L by her former stablemate on the fibresand and I think you have to forgive any horse a poor run at Southwell.
Last October brought about Sweet Lavender's handicap and turf debut as she was pretty damn disappointing in a first time visor off a mark of 75 at Newmarket. Can't really make much excuses for it but Godolphin got rid of her as a result as she was sold to the Gay Kellaway stable for 4,500gns in February of this year. Her debut for Gay Kellaway came last month again at Newmarket where she finished tailed off over the 10f trip. After being outpaced with about 5f to go, she started dropping back quickly as she was taken care of by jockey Neil Callan who allowed her to come home in her home time. Given the trip was clearly inadequate, it certainly looked to me as if connections were looking to get a run under her belt after a 7 month break. Today Sweet Lavender is returned to the AW which has shown her to best effect so far to date which is a definite encouragement. Further to this, she's upped to 1m6f for the first time which looks sure to suit and it could bring about some improvement, especially as the visor which has been applied for her last two awful efforts has been removed. Pat Cosgrave takes the ride and he is a very, very eye catching booking for me. This represents only his 2nd ride for Gay Kelleway with the first being a 1L beaten 2nd back in 2009 and considering Micky Fenton is at Wolves and is the 2nd most utilised jockey by the trainer I think it could be potentially very significant that Cosgrave is on board. Given her breeding, her efforts as a 3 year old (which were less than 9 months ago), the return to the AW and step up in trip a mark of 72 doesn't really look beyond her. Although clearly needing to bounce back in a big way, I feel she definitely has a big effort in her locker off this sort of mark and at 50/1 she definitely warrants a chance if rediscovering her earlier form.
