Right tough h'cap that. I'll go for for Monellisio for the fun. Didn't seem to get home last time over almost 3m after getting outpaced over 2m...this could be his trip. Tbh not obviously well h'capped on his first open venture but unexposed and might be worth a £5'er e/w at 25's with a handy young jock up claiming 7lb.
Bob - When it comes to Ante post I personally am very cautious and only get involved if I feel that there is real value to make it worth the many uncertainties that could conspire against the bet. If it is a very high stake bet as you suggest the real sickner would be to lose a sum like that in cold blood without a run, where as to have an easy winner at 1-4 instead of the 2-5 that you could have had is not going to cause you too much disappointment as you have won. It will also allow you to double with Quevega as well which again should be an easy victory. I do also like the chances of Simonsig in the treble as although his jumping has not been tested as of yet this horse has real class.
That 2.30 is an absolute nightmare, Shariyan looks sure to run a big race, Talbot Road could be well handicapped as could Stickwise horse Chestnut Charlie, Sammy Black weighted to get closer to Shariyan and should have come on for the last run. My two against the field are Kilavalley 16/1 and Wheres The Dosh 20/1, interestingly Brian Cooper rides the Gary Ducey horse and Mark Enright rides Kilavalley for Dessie Hughes. Enright is a quality 5 pound claimer, one of the best apprentices in Ireland imo, the question is tho, did they just want to take 5 pounds off Kilavalley or does Cooper know something about Wheres The Dosh, who is having only his second run in 3 years? Kilavalley looks to have a decent chance so if Cooper could have sat on him but decided to ride Wheres The Dosh, I think that would look very interesting considering the horses profile, but as I say, maybe he didnt, maybe they just wanted to take the 5 pounds off and Wheres The Dosh is all Cooper has been offered in the race... in which case Wheres The Dosh will probably be 150 on Betifair before the race. Spent far too much time on this lottery, maybe im just losing the plot
I think today is all about the each way play. 12.25 Angela's Money 12.55 Way Up In The Air 1.25 Our Vinne 1.55 Thousand Stars 2.30 Happy New Year 4.10 Competitive Edge 3.05 Blackmail will be my only win bet. Good luck all
Morning all 2.30 Leop - CROCUS BAY @ 25/1 Ran a nice race off last time out when beaten a length into 3rd at Tramore after a lengthy break and is only 2lb higher today. Lightly raced and i'm sure there's tons of improvement in him. Geraghty takes the ride. Good luck all!
Morning all, would love Murray to somehow break back and force a nervous 5th set. 12.20 Leopardstown: Legal Exit 12/1 This is a quite stonking price against an overrated Willie Mullins novice in the shape of Urano. Legal Exit made quite an impression on the point to point scene last year and Jim Culloty thinks an awful, awful lot of him. He is a stayer in the making so I can see why people are taking him on today, but his last race was full of so much promise before he tipped up two out, responding very well to pressure and looked like he would go past what ended up an easy winner. He was 5/2 that day which indicated the Culloty confidence, and he will relish a) the extra 2f today, and b) the very testing conditions. I can see him staying on very, very strongly and if the ground blunts Urano's speed, I really fancy the selection to find him out at a nice price.
BOOM BOOM BOOM HAVE IT! Went past him beautifully and is a lovely horse to follow up in trip. What a fantastic opening to a Sunday!
My review of yesterday is on the blog. Today I have taken Glens Melody to jump better and beat stablemate Zuzka in the mares race.
The way I look at ante post is what price would I expect the horse to be if it was at the post and ready to go, and any difference in that and the ante post odds are the odds you are taking about turning up. Then, are the latter odds good value? Some stats about fancied ante post bets that didn't turn up might help in that choice.
