Daily Thread Saturday 25th May

  • Please bear with us on the new site integration and fixing any known bugs over the coming days. If you can not log in please try resetting your password and check your spam box. If you have tried these steps and are still struggling email [email protected] with your username/registered email address
  • Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!
stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
11,653
113
Maidenhead, Berkshire
A couple on the flat I fancy tomorrow are BOGART 25-1 York 2.55 and ALBERT BRIDGE 12/1 Goodwood 3.05. I expect both to go off a lot shorter.
In the evening we have NH cards at Ffos Las and Cartmel and I have to say that they are not exactly inspiring. You may however choose to have a couple of quid each way on RAINBOW HAZE 40-1 Ffos Las 8.20. Its form recently is very uninspiring but I am told that they think it is better than it has shown recently. On its latest start it really didnt appreciate the application of blinkers and it took off with its young jockey. Headgear off tomorrow, a stronger jockey takes over and its slipped to a very handy mark. It would be foolish to take its bumper form at face value but when I tell you it was second to My Tent Or Yours on its second outing your ears may prick up.
RAINBOW HAZE 50-1 with Victor Chandler now so have had a bit more. Each way of course!



See also specific York thread
 
The Irish 2000 for me looks to have a huge value bet in there that has gone totally unnoticed.

Magician's Chester win is absolutely ridiculous form for which to justify 5/2 favouritism. Van Der Neer can't live with Toronado on the gallops so why he should be up to winning an Irish 2000 is beyond me.

FLYING THE FLAG 25/1 (NAP) is a wonderfully bred horse from the Ballydoyle team, by Galileo out of Irish 1000 Guineas, Nassau winner HALFWAY TO HEAVEN- who was 3rd behind Goldikova and Zarkava in the French version. Halfway To Heaven was by Pivotal but won on extremely fast ground.

Not sure if anyone has seen the French 2000 Guineas from this year but if Flying The Flag isn't eyecatching here, I don't know who is. Held up stone last, miles off the pace, he was switched INSIDE- always harder to do, and ran on strongly to be a 3 and a half length 9th. Subsequently his form figures of 129 have left the bookies and punters unafraid, but I think he is the one to repeat the effort of WAS in last years Epsom Oaks- beautifully bred, promising debut, 'underachievening' and then surprising in the big one.

For my money he would have beaten GALE FORCE TEN with a clear run and beat that convincingly- and that horse was 3rd and is 9/1 today. Why is there such a discrepancy? The dam loved the 1m trip and loved fast ground, and I think we have one ready to outrun its odds.

An absolutely stonking each-way price
 
Far too much racing on a Saturday, do they think we are millionaires?

Two main bets are Afsare 7/4 and Sole Power 2/1, two singles and a double.

Others that I like for smaller stakes

Haydock
3.15 Hay Dude 9/1
4.55 Mappin Time 8/1

York
2.55 Duke Of Firenze 13/2

Curragh
3.20 George Vancouver 14/1
 
2.55 York

Ponty Aclaim 28/1

Tim Easterby's Group 3 winning Juvenile Ponty Acclaim has slipped to a very dangerous mark of 91 and after an ok reappearance run over this C+D she may well be ready to add to her 4 2 year old successes. After winning that Group 3 in decent style on her final 2 year old start, Ponty Acclaim started off her 3 year old season with an absolutely belting run over this C+D when only finding the very highly rated Pearl Secret too good as she was beaten easily enough by 2L by that Colt but she did have to concede him 2lb and she was nearly 2L clear of the 3rd Caledonia Lady who went on to win a Group 3 herself later that season. She then ran in the King's Stand Group 1 when mid division before disappointing in a Listed contest and running well enough in another Listed race at Chester when beaten a little over 2L despite missing the break. Ponty Acclaim then returned to handicap company off a mark of 101 at York over 89 yards further than this with an absolutely belting run against her elders. Under Ted Ducan last August, Ponty Acclaim looked set to run a blinding 2nd before fading very badly in the last 50 yards to be beaten less than 2L in 7th. It was a tremendous effort for a 3 year old against older horses and a reproduction of that effort off a 10lb lower mark would certainly see her land this. She followed that run with a flat effort in a Listed contest at Beverley before running much better in a first time hood (retained since) at Beverley when a never nearer 2L beaten 3rd in a Conditions race and she followed that up with with a good 3rd in a Listed contest at Ascot on soft ground that wouldn't have suited. She was disappointing on her final 2 starts last year on soft ground but she fell in the handicap resultantly to a mark of 94 off which she made her reappearance over this C+D 9 days ago. She very much shaped as if she needed the run that day as she ended up being drawn on the wrong side of the track but David Allan certainly wasn't unnecessarily tough on her as she was beaten less than 6L. She should have come on a lot fitness wise for that run and the handicapper has relented a further 3lb and judged on some of her old form she looks dangerously well handicapped. Like so many others, Ponty Acclaim found it tough at a high level in 3 year old sprints last season but now a 4 year old I think she'll find life much easier back in handicaps. Duran Fentiman, who has won on her before, takes the ride and Tim Easterby has started to knock a few winners in with 3 in the past week and at 28/1 I certainly think she could cause a bit of surprise in this contest.
 
6.10 Ffos Las

Fromthetop 11/2

Looking at Fromthetop's Point To Point form, its not at all surprising that there has been a load of support for Michael Scudamore's handicap chase debutant as he could be stones in off a mark of 77. Trained in Ireland by Elaine Palmer, Fromthetop was successful in 3 of his 8 Point To Points (including his final 2 in March last year) and the form of a few of those races make this 7 year old look beyond ridiculously well handicapped. On his 2nd start he was beaten a neck by subsequent Grade 3 winning hurdler My Murphy in April 2011 and followed that up with another 2nd a month later but he seemed to progress massively with another summer on his back as he won 3 of his 4 completed Point To Points. After falling at 2 out when going very well at Dromahane in November 2011, Fromthetop won his first Point To Point at the 5th time of asking in an average looking Point To Point at Avaune that December before an ok 4th a month later when beaten a little over 3L in the mud. It was his final 2 Point To Points that are by far his strongest form when winning both snugly and beating two very useful horses in the process. At the start of March 2012 he beat the now 134 rated chaser Supreme Doc at Kilworth before beating subsequent Grade 2 runner up Ardkilly Witness at Liscarroll later that month. There is no way that Fromthetop could beat those two rivals without a fair degree of ability and if reproducing either of those efforts a mark of 77 could be laughable on handicap chase debut. Fromthetop was picked up for £46,000 at the Cheltenham Sales last April and sent to Michael Scudamore for whom he's had 3 starts so far with a run over fences sandwiched between a couple of hurdle runs between December-February. Although he showed nothing of note in any of those 3 outings, Scudamore did find 3 very useful contests to run him and running in this really poor contest off a mark of 77 is in a different league to those races. Looking back at those efforts, its a small bit worrying that he was very ponderous at his jumps over fences and clumsy over hurdles but the application of first time cheekpieces, in addition to a first time tongue tie, should hopefully help him concentrate better. Its been 110 days since his last run on the track and I'd be very surprised if Scudamore hasn't been gearing him towards this handicap debut ever since. The trainer's brother Tom Scudamore takes the ride and he should relish the return to proper good ground on which his best Point To Point performances came. With Michael Scudamore in good form with 2 winners and 3 places from his last 7 runners, if Fromthetop's Point To Point form is to be believed then he might make an absolutely mockery off 77 on his handicap debut and having already been supported in from 14/1 it very much looks as if the yard are trying to land a touch and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they do so easily.
 
TopClass said:
The Irish 2000 for me looks to have a huge value bet in there that has gone totally unnoticed.

Magician's Chester win is absolutely ridiculous form for which to justify 5/2 favouritism. Van Der Neer can't live with Toronado on the gallops so why he should be up to winning an Irish 2000 is beyond me.

FLYING THE FLAG 25/1 (NAP) is a wonderfully bred horse from the Ballydoyle team, by Galileo out of Irish 1000 Guineas, Nassau winner HALFWAY TO HEAVEN- who was 3rd behind Goldikova and Zarkava in the French version. Halfway To Heaven was by Pivotal but won on extremely fast ground.

Not sure if anyone has seen the French 2000 Guineas from this year but if Flying The Flag isn't eyecatching here, I don't know who is. Held up stone last, miles off the pace, he was switched INSIDE- always harder to do, and ran on strongly to be a 3 and a half length 9th. Subsequently his form figures of 129 have left the bookies and punters unafraid, but I think he is the one to repeat the effort of WAS in last years Epsom Oaks- beautifully bred, promising debut, 'underachievening' and then surprising in the big one.

For my money he would have beaten GALE FORCE TEN with a clear run and beat that convincingly- and that horse was 3rd and is 9/1 today. Why is there such a discrepancy? The dam loved the 1m trip and loved fast ground, and I think we have one ready to outrun its odds.

An absolutely stonking each-way price
Click to expand...

Highlighted his credentials after the FR2000 and your valid point at 4.45pm on the 15/5/13 thread Toppy a couple of weeks back.

Always a concern as to his role in this race though...I was also very taken by the run but wary of the fact that 3l covered so many horses.

Also worried his chance may be spoiled,like Daddy Long Legs last year,as the rabbit.

20/1 is worth a pop though...GL....there is a decent race in this colt,no doubt.
 
TopClass said:
The Irish 2000 for me looks to have a huge value bet in there that has gone totally unnoticed.

Magician's Chester win is absolutely ridiculous form for which to justify 5/2 favouritism. Van Der Neer can't live with Toronado on the gallops so why he should be up to winning an Irish 2000 is beyond me.

FLYING THE FLAG 25/1 (NAP) is a wonderfully bred horse from the Ballydoyle team, by Galileo out of Irish 1000 Guineas, Nassau winner HALFWAY TO HEAVEN- who was 3rd behind Goldikova and Zarkava in the French version. Halfway To Heaven was by Pivotal but won on extremely fast ground.

Not sure if anyone has seen the French 2000 Guineas from this year but if Flying The Flag isn't eyecatching here, I don't know who is. Held up stone last, miles off the pace, he was switched INSIDE- always harder to do, and ran on strongly to be a 3 and a half length 9th. Subsequently his form figures of 129 have left the bookies and punters unafraid, but I think he is the one to repeat the effort of WAS in last years Epsom Oaks- beautifully bred, promising debut, 'underachievening' and then surprising in the big one.

For my money he would have beaten GALE FORCE TEN with a clear run and beat that convincingly- and that horse was 3rd and is 9/1 today. Why is there such a discrepancy? The dam loved the 1m trip and loved fast ground, and I think we have one ready to outrun its odds.

An absolutely stonking each-way price
Click to expand...

Nice call Toppy, just slipped an early tenner e/w on him at 25/1. Wouldn't be the first time Colm has popped up on a long priced Ballydoyle winner.
 
Can't help thinking Tim Vaughan is going for a plot with Jive Master in the 6.55 at Cartmel this evening. Won a couple of bumpers in his younger days and should have completed a double over hurdles but fell 2 out against Lady Karinga. He was then thought good enough to contest one of those Neptune series hurdles but found that company too hot and went very close next time out at Exeter off 121, looked all over the winner before giving best to the now 124 rated Ugo who he was trying to give 7lbs. Did nowt thereafter (probably a combination of inexperienced jockeys and soft ground) and then was way behind in a beginners chase at Market Rasen on boxing day. That gets him in off 105 here and the booking of Aiden COleman catches the eye. Bit of e/w at 7/1 is a nice little bet.
 
A trip to Chester races for me today. The sun is shining so a good day in prospect. Although when the tickets came through the ol gal had only booked an enclosure which requires a jacket and tie! I've never got dressed up for horse racing before and won't be doing again but all in all a small negative for what should be a decent day out. As far as the punting goes it will be minimal stakes and hoping a certain P D Evans has a decent day. Away from Chester I like the ew chances of Ponty Acclaim at York and an old favourite Kingsgate Native in the big un at Haydock. Good luck all striking a wager today.
 
Gatepost today Chan? If I was betting he would be the only one I back today. Today should suit much more than the flat five he had to race in at the festival thing.
 
NassauBoard said:
Gatepost today Chan? If I was betting he would be the only one I back today. Today should suit much more than the flat five he had to race in at the festival thing.
Click to expand...

Cheers Nass. Haven't picked anything in that race tbh so if I do have go I'll take your advice.
 
OddDog said:
Nice call Toppy, just slipped an early tenner e/w on him at 25/1. Wouldn't be the first time Colm has popped up on a long priced Ballydoyle winner.
Click to expand...

As Dex says Oddy, just got to hope they ride him on merit and dont use him as a pacemaker. At the same time, I hope he isnt too far back like Longchamp.

Beautiful pedigree. He must have made up 7 lenghs at Longchamp from the position he was in. If he could possibly improve for the ground- and some of these Ballydoyle ones do on their rare chances to run on a good surface in Ireland- his credentials are bang there.
 
Morning All, I am going for a punt in the Temple Stakes at Haydock today. Sole Power may well be too good today for these especially as the draw might not help Reckless Abandon but I will pass him over as I really like the chances of Spirit Quartz especially at the price. Was 3rd in the race last year and has been drawn in stall 1 which may help. I think this horse takes a few runs to get him right and Haydock suits him better than Newmarket. He's raced twice at Haydock and finished 2nd and 3rd...jockey booking interesting too so i have taken 10/1GP Each Way
 
Looking at the 4 pattern races in England today I must say I think the favourite will win all 4, so a yankee on:

2.05 Goodwood Afsare
2.20 York Songcraft
3.50 Haydock Sole Power
4.05 Goodwood Noble Mission

Won't make you rich but a pound yankee returns around 114
 
David "The Night" Wachman doesn't fart around when sending one in the Curragh's opener. And I expect his charge to Tap Dance her way to a hands and heels victory under the steering of Wayne "The Machine" Lordan. 12/1 looks a early christmas gift and I will be investing the winnings in the hands of a local tout to see ma boy Mikkel "the Viking Warrior" Kessler defeat Froch 116-112.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom
Back