Daily Thread Saturday 17th August

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woolcombe-folly007

woolcombe-folly007

Well-Known Member
May 9, 2011
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East Sussex
15.30 Ripon- Hoof It- 12/1

Hugely progressive horse- had a stormer of a season last year but this year has not shown the same, altho only raced twice this year so far. He did look slightly better in the stewards cup and will definately come on for the run- also has the hood on for the first time so if any where near his form of last year he will take all the beating.
 
have received some information that ferdy murphy has Lap of Honour primed for the seller at market rasen --to provide his lad with a winner.

The source has been erratic in the past, sometimes the info is spot on, other times it seems wayward-- but this does seem plausible--and murphy does lay them out....
 
Also some selections over in the states;

21.52 Arlington Park- Dandino (NAP)
23.02 Arlington Park- Dank- 7/2
23.44 Arlington Park- Side Glance- 12/1 E/W
 
I have two to put up for tomorrow, neither I am afraid is a big price but I am very confident on both and will be having a decent single on each and a double. Both late in the day I am afraid, but could not be more confident.

Doncaster
5.20 Bishops Castle 13-8
This horse had three easy runs gaining a couple of places on the all weather before coming out to take his maiden at odds of 1-2 at Wolverhampton in March. This horse runs tomorrow off of 75 but I think he is much much better.

Newmarket
5.05 Hold on Tight 11-8
This lovely filly was beaten by Bantem who took a decent little race again earlier this week, of more significance however is that before that race Hold on Tight beat a Gosden hotpot who was so well handicapped he went on to win his next two races, the last by 4 1/2 lengths and the one before by a head with the third 12 lengths back. The third horse in Hold on Tight's that race won by 2 1/2 lengths next time out whilst the 4th won by 41/2 next time out for William Hagges. With regard handicap marks the 2nd ran off of 90, 3rd off of 80 4th from 79 (these are the figures of their last win, they will all obviously have gone up since), Hold on Tight runs tomorrow from 79 the same mark she was beaten off by Bantem who went on to win again from 80, If we take it that The Gosden horse will go up from 90 for his last win by say 4 lb and be running off of 94 it means Hold on Tight had the beating of a 94 horse yet today runs in a small field handicap from 79. In short I do not think this horse can lose and 11-8 is superb value whilst Royal Dutch can make up the straight forcast.
 
Ripon
2.50 Clear Spring 14/1 NAP & Bajan Tryst 33/1 e/w
3.30 Dick Bos 11/1

Doncaster
4.15 Threes Grand 22/1
 
Good morning all putting up a Newbury threesome today lannigans biographer hannons democracies and wests hi note 5/1 8/1 4/1 which comes to a tasty 269/1 treble best of luck to anyone playing today
 
A largely sentimental ew bet on the veteran sprinter Borderlescott in the Gt St Wilfred over at Ripon for me today. At 11 years old his best days are behind him and he's not won over today's trip since 2006! However he's not been disgraced in his 2 runs this season in better company than he'll face today and he was still good enough to win a listed event less than a year ago off 102. With the jockey claim he'll be off 101 this afternoon and at 25/1 I reckon he might just get in the shake up. Good luck all today.
 
Although Hoof It carries top weight in the Great St Wilfred at Ripon, if he's anywhere near back to his best he ought to win (the same goes for Borderlescott!).

Here's wishing Gina Bryce was presenting The Morning Line not Rishi!

Tom Lee was showing off just now speaking in French. <laugh>
 
Just the one for me so far today

2.05 Newbury Speedy Approach 6/1

After running well enough on debut i was extremely impressed by his win next time out in a maiden, still green but quickened nicely at the end to win. Probably didnt beat much but the manner in which he won suggested to me that he could be decent. Somewhat looks good but is beatable and i want to oppose him at 11/8 and i cant be backing a godolphin newcomer at that short a price. No fancy entries plus they have stuck Fallon on board and not a stable jock? They either have no faith in their stable jocks or they arent too excited about this one.

Speedy Approach also has the man of the moment Johnny Murtagh on board who is having at least one winner every weekend at the moment! I think today it could be this one and 6/1 looks a good price in my book
 
2 bets for me today in the Great St Wilifrid Handicap at Ripon. .....

Louis the Pious 12/1 GP e.w and Dick Bos 12/1 GP e.w

Backed Louis the Pious in the Stewards cup last time out and he ran well enough...I believe he has improved this season following a wind op. He finished 3rd in the race last year so has course form which i think is important at a track like Ripon with small undulations...Dick Bos gets in at the bottom and has good course form also and has a squeak.. ....

Good luck all
 
This is not a great day for trying to pick up some money to lose at the Ebor meeting. I can say that the Newmarket 2:20 will be won by the grey horse!

At Newbury there is a large field for the Geoffrey Freer but there do appear to be a lot that are just making up the numbers. Principally, the race revolves around John Gosden&#8217;s Aiken with the main factor to be considered being the going. Having missed a couple of recent engagements because of the ground and with a record that says he needs it softer, should he be opposed unless rain hits Berkshire?

The form horse in the Listed race at 2:05 is Mark Johnston&#8217;s Somewhat but where the prize money goes may depend on whether newcomer Be Ready is ready: one to watch.

The Hungerford Stakes (3:15) has a very poor turnout of top flight also-rans where Gregorian is the only runner except the favourite Soft Falling Rain who has won a race this year. Ironically, any rain may not be good news for the unbeaten favourite and this race is best watched.

Last night&#8217;s final race at Newmarket was won by Askaud, which ran like a drain at Goodwood carrying my money but has won three of its last four. In the 2:55 at Newmarket today, Midnight Flower, touched off in a hat-trick bid last time when carrying my money can reverse the form with Lucky Beggar.

Over at Doncaster, I will be watching the weather until the 4:15. If there is no rain, Sleepy Blue Ocean may get back to winning ways off the same mark as when beaten in a five runner race by Dettori on an odds-on shot last time.
 
Brough Tiger said:
Just the one for me so far today

2.05 Newbury Speedy Approach 6/1

After running well enough on debut i was extremely impressed by his win next time out in a maiden, still green but quickened nicely at the end to win. Probably didnt beat much but the manner in which he won suggested to me that he could be decent. Somewhat looks good but is beatable and i want to oppose him at 11/8 and i cant be backing a godolphin newcomer at that short a price. No fancy entries plus they have stuck Fallon on board and not a stable jock? They either have no faith in their stable jocks or they arent too excited about this one.

Speedy Approach also has the man of the moment Johnny Murtagh on board who is having at least one winner every weekend at the moment! I think today it could be this one and 6/1 looks a good price in my book
Click to expand...

I really struggled with this horse last night Brough, I watched his last race three times and watched the favourites last two and I came to the conclusion that we had clearly not seen the best of Speedy Approach but that he would have to be Group Two minimum to beat the favourite, and I was not sure that he would be. I almost went for the gamble as I felt 6-1 was too big and I definitely would not back the Fav against Speedy approach at such skinny odds but in the end bottled out of it. I hope he wins for you and will be cheering him on in that race. I have also struggled to see who Johnny has come over to ride as his mount in the big race does not look to be good enough but none of the other races look of significance.
 
If anybody sees Fred, tell him that he has lost a punter. I went into the nearest BetFred this afternoon for a bet in the Newmarket 2:55. When the betting opened the price came up as 11/2 Midnight Flower. I went to the counter, where there was only ONE staff member. She was dealing with an old boy who wanted to know the price of Hoof It in the Ripon 3:30. I said it was 12/1 because it was on a screen ten feet away. The girl would not take my word for it and then spent some time looking it up on the system and the customer then declined to take the 12/1 price (which may have been really stupid as it was probably a Best Odds race) but struck his bet. I then asked for 11/2 but was told it was now 5/1, so I missed the price because Fred cannot manage to staff his shops properly on a Saturday afternoon at a quarter to three. Twenty years ago I worked for one of what was then the Big Four bookies and I can never recall a Saturday when there was only ONE staff member working on the busiest day of the week.

No surprise that the bet lost anyway (backed down to 4/1 favourite; never going) but that is the last of my money that will be staying in Fred&#8217;s coffers. I do not care for all his bonuses on mug punter multiple bets as I never do them and he scored nought out of ten for customer service today and he knows where he can &#8220;push&#8221; that.
 
The ground at Newbury today was clearly not soft enough for Aiken, so that was a loser dodged. Difficult to say whether one should have sympathy with Soft Falling Rain as he ended up having to make his own running due to the poor turnout, but maybe he needs lightening fast ground or maybe his Dubai form is only Group 2 level because of the prize money rather than the quality of opposition.

No surprise that Borderlescott (well past it and only racing because he hated retirement) and Hoof It (no evidence to suggest that he retains any of his old ability since coming back from injury) did not feature in the Great St Wilfred bookies&#8217; benefit.
 
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