Daily thread Sat 29th Sept

Along with Bluesky's Big Johnny D, my two are

2.40 Market Rasen

Rebel Du Maquis 8/1 NB

Clearly not the only one who likes this as he has been backed in from an opening show of 12/1 with PP but I think the 8/1 looks more than fair about Paul Nicholls 7 year old. He comes here on the back of 14 month break which is a slight concern but given he has won on the back of a 6 month break (by 20L in what has transpired to be an average Novices Chase) and a 5 month break (on debut for Nicholls) coupled with his trainer's ability to ready a horse make me not really concerned that he won't have this talented gelding fully wound up in what looks a competitive Listed Handicap. He's the class act in the field and as such has the burden of top weight off a mark of 146 but he really looked an exciting and progressive chaser since the backend of 2010. After signing off 2010 with 2 Novice Chase victories and a good 3rd behind the talented Reve De Sivola and Wishful Thinking, he started off his campaign last year after a 3 month break when running a decent race in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown before putting in an under par performance when last of 4 at Newton Abbott on soft enough ground in a Novices Chase. However, he soon got his career back on track in very impressive fashion with an impressive victory in a Novice's Chase at Exeter in April before clearly putting in a career best performance when winning very takingly by 11L off a mark of 142. That race has a fair bit of substance with Swing Bill winning a competitive Class 3 on his next start off a 1lb lower mark (6 month break and step up in trip would have helped a lot) but all in all it was a really likeable effort over Stratford's 21.5f. Further to this, he was top weight as well that day which proves he is more than capable of shouldering heavy weight. He was last seen when finishing a respectable midfield in the Galway Plate last July and on the basis of his progressive profile this now 7 year old looks to have been kept in after that for what could potentially be a very big season. The talented Harry Derham takes the ride tomorrow and takes off an extremely valuable 7lb which drops his racing weight to 11-5 and given that he is only 4lb above his impressive victory two starts ago he definitely looks pretty well handicapped. Rebel Du Maquis represents both the jockey and trainer's only engagements of the day and Nicholls has started the season well with his last 2 runners winning. I think its also rather interesting that this will be Nicholls first runner at this meeting since 2010 when he saddled Five Dream to finish a narrowly 1.25L beaten 2nd in the corresponding race and you've got to take that as a positive. If fully wound up on the back of his 430 day absence, I think Rebel Du Maquis should run a massive race which hopefully results in him landing this decent prize.

3.15 Haydock

Sholaan 7/2 NAP

Quite a progressive 3 year old who I think should take a heck of a lot of beating here today. After what has transpired this year, its hard to believe this gelding was campaigned over 7f and 1 mile on his first 5 career starts as he seems to have a bundle of pace. His 3 best efforts have come over 6f and I think he has more than enough speed now dropping back to the minimum trip and soft underfoot conditions seem to be the absolute key when judging his action. He burst onto the scene in June with an absolute rout of what looked an extremely competitive Class 2 race at York by 6L under Liam Jones on what was his first start on both soft ground and at sprinting trips with first time blinkers also proving the oracle and he followed that up with a fine 1.5L beaten 3rd off a 12lb higher mark of 99 on good ground that wouldn't have been ideal. His last start came last Saturday when running an absolute belter to finish 4th in the Ayr Gold Cup off this same mark of 101. That day under Kelly Harrison, he showed a tremendous dash of speed when kicking about 3L clear of the field with a couple of furlongs to go and he lost absolutely nothing in defeat as he was reeled in by 3 rivals in the final furlong to finish a 4.5L beaten 4th (Captain Ramius was 2.5L clear of 2nd) in the ultra competitive 6f dash. A 3 year old in the shape of Marino Commando winning this last year and Willie Haggas in good form positives, I see the drop back to 5f as and racing off the same mark in what looks a much easier race with Liam Jones reunited further pluses and I think he will take an awful lot of pegging back.

 

I liked Big Johnny D so much after reading Blue's write up I thought I'd do a write up on him as well. If he wins, I give all credit to Bluesky as I wouldn't have looked at the race unless I had read his analysis.

5.25 Newmarket

Big Johnny D 10/1

As Bluesky stated, if purely looking at the bare facts from Big Johnny D's last race then he looks extremely overpriced in relation to current favourite Marshgate Lane. In the 10f Maiden at on the July Course off level weights, John Dunlop's 3 year old finished 1.88L behind Marshgate Lane on soft ground and given he now gets a 12lb swing in the weights with that rival now going handicapping and looks the clear value call. However, there is a fair bit more to it than that. Blue put it very well as Big Johnny D travelled beautifully into the race and was definitely taken care of by Ted Durcan in what looked an educational ride as he finished a cosy 3rd behind the two Godolphin rivals. It looked as if this colt had a fair bit left in the tank and he pulled back about 3/4s of a length in the final 50 or so yards under hands and heels riding. Furthermore, in my eyes it definitely looked as if he would appreciate the step up in trip which he gets upped to 1m4f for this contest on handicap debut off a mark of 82. If these two equally unexposed rivals are equally as effective on tomorrow's better ground, the price disparity between the pair looks very big and I'd much rather side with John Dunlop's representative. Marshgate Lane had boosted the form of that race when running an excellent handicap debut off a mark of 88 when very narrowly beaten at Goodwood in a competitive handicap which, if looking at the race from a handicap mark perspective, looks very good for Big Johnny D's CV.

That was son of Alhaarth's only start as a 3 year old to date and although its hard to tell from the small replay screens how much he's grown into himself from his juvenile days the fact he has 'Big' in his name would lead me to believe he was probably a sizeable colt with a fair bit of scope. Regardless of that fact, he showed some extremely nice form on his debut before what was a bit of an under par second effort both over 7f. Again at the July Course last August, Big Johnny D ran a very pleasing debut when finishing a 2.5L beaten 3rd on good ground in a race that has turned out to be miles above average for a maiden. He travelled into the race very sweetly and after being switched left handed late on he was beaten by two horses that have turned out to be excellent as he finished 1L clear of the others. The winner Kinglet has subsequently won a Group 3 over in Meydan and is a horse rated in the 100s and the 2nd Most Improved has proved very classy and has this season won the Group 1 St James's Palace Stakes. Furthermore, in behind him that day were also the talented Juvenal (6th) Wrotham Heath (7th) and Quixote (9th) who are now rated 84, 95 and 83 respectively and it really was a superb debut effort. A month later he was a touch disappointing at Ascot when sent of a 9/4 shot as he was beaten convincingly. I don't really know why he underperformed that day (race does look decent but not unbelievable) but given that he has come out as a 3 year old and run so well on his last start on the back of a 10 month absence allows me to discount this run pretty easily. Based on his 2 year old and 3 year old debuts, his mark of 82 looks very lenient and he's both unexposed with only 3 starts to date and looks sure to be suited by the step up to 1m4f. Ted Durcan remains on board and has done for all 3 starts and John Dunlop, who brings a close to his tremendous training career at the end of the season, has finally gotten over his early season slump and is operating at a 16% strike rate this month. If all goes to plan from a good draw in stall 4, Big Johnny D could prove too well handicapped against his rivals and make 10/1 look very big at about 5.30 tomorrow.

 

Morning all, one I like today.

Chester 4.40 Gabrial The Great 11/1 This colt loves soft ground, has ran on it 3 times with form figures of 121. Gets his ground today and is better than his mark of 91 imo, at 11/1 his price is to big.

Best Of Luck All

 

Not been getting an awful lot right recently and given my woeful saturday record this season I dont expect much to change.

Newmarket
1.55 Fantastic Moon 7/2
2.25 Upward Spiral 22/1
3.00 Beauty Parlour 9/4
3.40 Chill The Kite 12/1
4.50 Johnny Mudball 33/1
5.25 Daghash 20/1

Strong on Fantastic Moon and Beauty Parlour, the others just an interest.

 

2.35 Newmarket: Jillnextdoor 40/1 e.w

Expect a few eyebrows raised and on bare form it is understandable. However Jillnextdoor could have had 3 career successes to her name at least now when touched off twice in maidens and the most interesting run of all for me was two starts ago at Goodwood behind Steeler, who incidentally is a 7/2 shot in the race preceeding this.

Jillnextdoor ambled up on the bridle when Steeler was just getting reminders under pressure and although Steeler had the shortish ttil against him and stayed on strongly to win, we dont really know whether Jillnextdoor would have got close if she wasnt bumped and squeezed out by Tamayuz Star (winner since). Tamayuz Star quickened well that day but was outstayed whereas Jillnextdoor is strong at the finish in all of her races despite her luckless record.

Mick Channom thinks she is a nice filly and did seem to think that Martin Harley choosing Sandreamer didnt really mean she was relatively any better. I just think if she'd have had the breaks she could be anything from a 14/1 shot to a 6/1 shot depending on how close she might have got to Steeler.

 

SEAL ROCK 3.30 Chester 2lbs below last winning mark - first time blinkers on today and will love the heavy ground imo tempted at 14s but will just watch it win

 

ROTO Re: big Johnny D's second maiden run last year a think for whatever reason that piece of form can be discounted as it was certainly an odd result as the first four home were 66-1, 66-1, 10-1 & 28-1. Big Johhny went of 9-4 second fav and finished well out the money as did the favourite Starboard who went of 2-1 that day. Starboard now races off of 104 and recently won a Group 3 at Longchamp. I could certainly say with fair certainty that none of the horses in that maiden would get near Starboard if run again. As you mention his first run was superb and in finishing 2 lengths behind most improved (Dunlops are never tuned first time up either) a group 1 winning 114 rated horse makes a rating of 82 look mouth watering. I think if i were to be worried, as i tend to get when having gone in for one properly i would wonder why it's nearly October and he has had only the one run. After seeing him as having a huge chance last night i will now spend all day getting him beat, i backed him to win but am wondering if i should have gone safe and had each way at 10's.

 

Cambridgeshire: Spanish Duke 33/1e.w

Spanish Duke is a serious talent when in the mood and is the sort of horse Eddie Ahern will be having wet dreams over in the Cambridgeshire.

He was talked about as Group class when demolishing a good handicap field at Epsom last year and has shown glimpses of it since, being a bit in and out and unlucky in running once or twice.

Ahern was on him at Epsom and I have visions of him swinging in on the bridle so have put some loose change on a John Dunlop fairytale on this Saturday afternoon.

He likes the ground on the slow side of good so it looks like he has decent conditions.

 

2.10 Laudatory EW

I liked his win on his penultimate start and I thought he was given a very novicey ride last time out in a handicap. He wasn't fluent at the first and he took time to get into the race, before losing places again (whilst on the bridle) at the crucial time and wasn't able to land a blow when he was asked for his effort. They have now put Andrew Tinkler on who has a lot more experience and hopefully he can deliver him in a better position to give his effort today.

2.40 Rebel Du Maquis - 6/1

This horse impressed me before his run in the Galway Plate. He to me is the class horse in the race, and the only worry is that he is lacking fitness, but that isn't something that Paul Nicholls is known for. I think he will be ready to strike on his return and he obviously could carry on his improvement over the fences this season.

3.40 Talk About - EW

I watched this horses last run back and I was very impressed by the way he finished the race, I think he seems to be on a fair enough mark and I think the pace is high draw. I think he is overpriced in comparison to some of those drawn in the high stalls.

 

I've also backed this. No great science behind my selection, I just suspect like he's been laid out for this since the York win. That, and I like the trainer. Great interview with PCH in last Sunday's post, the guy's really been to hell and back and thoroughly deserves the revival in his fortunes the yard has experienced this season.

 

Reason I never mentioned Starboard was because it was that ones debut in that maiden so was giving it the benefit that it needed experience (quite possibly did). I overlooked the form quite readily. Horse may need a rest period between runs or Dunlop didn't want to run him when he was out of form. Who knows.

Your cash is down and as I said last night great spot regardless of what happens. If he's beaten out of sight you've done nothing wrong in picking this fella

 

Al Waab would be my pick in the first race - couldn't be betting in it though. Decent renewal of the royal lodge.

 

And that is why I wouldn't be betting in that race . For Steeler to be up with the pace the whole way without getting outpaced shows how slow the animals in behind are. Expected Steeler to be rattling home from far back.

 

Steeler the only horse to take out of that race for me.Fantastic Moon was too slow to get into it when they quickened up.

Wonder if the winner will running in the Godolphin livery next year.

 

Local Hero not bet

 

Forget that !!!