Afternoon all, nothing on the lay front today as they are a funny couple of cards, but one or two I would think worth of a quid each-way: 2.50 Wolverhampton: Rosairlie 33/1 e.w If you go on her run last time out, you could understand the price, but she hasn't really been given a chance to excel over stamina trips and that is something I think she needs, and gets that over 1m 6f today. The reason I think stamina could be the key is that she was by Halliing, the double Eclipse & Juddmonte International winner (10f), out of an 87 rated handicapper called Mrs Mason, who stayed a mile and a half. Rosairlie has ran largely over 7f and 1m, including on second start beaten just 5 lengths by Sadlers Risk (rated 97) and Sea Moon (rated 121). All but one of those horses from that maiden have gone on to be 12f horses, with the only other running over 10f. In that sense, it is puzzling why they haven't given Rosairlie a sustained chance at the longer trips. She ran a stinker at Ffos Las over 12f but if we can forgive her for that, she is worth taking a chance on. Luke Morris is a good all-weather jockey and usually starts to find the winners around this time of the season. She runs off just 58, which on her 2 year old displays would put her well in here. Down to a class 6 handicap for the first time and if all is well with her, I'd be disappointed if she could not make the frame off that mark. 4.30 Wolverhampton: STARSTUDED 6/1 Looks to me like she has got in very lightly and has hinted at ability that would put her over 10lb well in here today. Doing best work late on debut when beaten into 3rd by OCEANWAY (rated 85), beaten 6 lengths into 5th by BOOGIE SHOES (rated 92) on second start. Disappointed when favourite on 3rd start at Pontefract but wouldn't be the first to struggle at that track. She runs off a mark of 62 today against a lot of exposed sorts. Not only is she unexposed, she has the pedigree to develop into a better horse than this and 6/1 to me looks really fair value in a class 6 handicap.
For the Melbourne Cup will stick with Fox Hunt (mainly because I've already backed him) in the hope he's over his travel problems, etc. He just might go real well in this type of race, which could be run to suit him. We'll soon find out...............
In absolutely shocking form of late but can't have Aiteen Thirtythree winning today. Trip is too short and the track too sharp. Nicholls has said this is his Hennessy horse for a long time and i cannot believe they would risk ruining his mark in this race. Expect him to run a nice enough race, come on loads for the run and be A1 for Newbury at the end of November. He is a lay for me. I couldn't tip a winner in a walkover at the moment so you might just want to fill your boots . . . Going back a page or two . . . I am not sure that we can definitively say that Poquelin didn't stay. To me he was beaten too far out to come to any conclusions. He was beat down the back straight long before stamina should have been a concern. If he had come there swinging on the bridle and then fallen in a heap with 4f to run then i could understand but he never looked comfortable from way out. Interesting to see where they go with him now.
Many thanks for passing that on Wayward Mr Stick: If you are reading excellent information with King of the Night mate
Zenyatta I think AITEENTHIRTYTHREE will win today. Think the 3 runner race will suit and he will keep on galloping from the front. Will back him at 6/4 and probs look daft afterwards
Yorkies: Hate the AW but after consulting my AW expert (Wayward) i have settled for Vitznau mate good luck for whoever you select
Nice double for Miss Knight there with Somersby, ended up an OK price for a near certainty Anyone know how Terry Biddlecombe is doing?
One of us had to be wrong! You might well get your money back in the Hennessy though. Looked like he'd come on for the run and stayed on nicely. Nicholls is sure to have him spot on for the day. Plus, he'll be very unlucky to get his weight bumped up with that performance. Ends a long losing run, by laying a loser! Looks like i should be a layer rather than a player . . .
TopC: Nice shout nd great explanation, Wayward said he was unlucky too but got the EW money for us, many thanks again and great article with T4R mate
Bet365 free bet for me in the 5.00W is VITZNAU 8/1 C&D winner and has good form in Class 1 Company off a much higher mark than today.
