4.10 - Lease Lend The 4.10 is a competitive little heat with last time out winners Brave Spartacus and Shangani leading the market, and it is the top weight in the handicap that takes my eye. Lease Lend is a tricky horse, he has bags of ability but he doesn't seem to be able to put it all in, and when he does, he often finds a way of being beaten, and yet this race looks set up for the horse to show his true potential. Brave Spartacus is a front running sort who has been a revelation this season for the Reveleys, but he has gone up massively in the handicap as a result (18lbs for last win) and that could curtail his improvement. He has been able to dictate races from the front, and in this race I think he may struggle to do that, with a good few of the field likely to want to race on the pace or close to it. This includes the Venetia Williams trained Shangani. Shangani finally won a race over fences last time when he made all the running over 2 miles at Sandown, and he did so with great fluidity at his fences. He steps up in trip here, so they may want to hold onto him, but if they allow him to bowl along he may force the pace with Brave Spartacus. Even if Shangani is ridden with restraint we have the likes of Arctic Ben (Prominent - Led at Cheltenham), Simonside (Prominent or front runner) and Diamond Frontier (Prominent but in small fields), all likely to want to make this a fairly run race. Lease Lend however is often ridden with restraint, and in recent races he has been free because of a lack of true pace, so if they do go a fair pace, I expect him to settle and work his way into the race, and I think he is going to be a massive danger to all under a patient Dougie Costello. He has won off a mark just 1lb lower than this in the past, and he has shown fair form this season, so I think the handicap mark is feasible and the yard are in fair form too (albeit on the flat mainly).
I think Brave Spartacus can defy the handicapper one more time on the scene all three of his wins. At around 5/2 he's not bad value.
A big bowl of wintery stew spiced up with lashings of tabasco sauce, and a side salad. A real winter warmer
Oktoberfest. All you German dwellers please give me your thoughts. Is it worth the hassle and best part of £700 to go?
I've never been Bob and TBH it's not really my thing any more - maybe 20 years ago. I may force myself one year though - all those low-cut Dirndls with breasts jutting out and poking you in the eye must be good for your health. Just need to step over vomiting Aussies from time to time. Swanny / Jongleur goes most years so he should be able to fill you in.
Nowt today as i had a nightmare this weekend... Not a bloody winner in sight so im just laying off for today, plus its not the best of days racing weve seen for a monday... Nor the worst...!!! Looks like the calm before the storm now with only 30ish days to go before the big show... Very much a time to look and read up on your fancies for the festival and ask a few of the forumites what their thinking is... Good luck to all for today and the coming weeks as i can see this years festival being a good un...
Betting in the first at Carlisle is weird - pretty much 3 co-favs at 2-1 and the rest double figures. I can't work it out but something tells me that's heavily weighted for the bookies
It is weird, they are running at Catterick. The 2nd horse on the card for me, Abbey Storm, who is drifting like a barge.
Good ride by Danny Cook, he judged that perfectly from the front, pulled out a couple of lengths at the key stage and the horse galloped relentlessly after that.
