Daily thread May 26th

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Islanderpei said:
Stb what criterias do you use,
Ron, thanks for your 2yro method , every bit of advise helps,i will put it to use in one of Cyc's class 6 long distance races of the day.haha.
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You won't find too many 2yos in those races <laugh>
 
Islanderpei said:
Stb what criterias do you use,
Ron, thanks for your 2yro method , every bit of advise helps,i will put it to use in one of Cyc's class 6 long distance races of the day.haha.
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This is my selection process in general not just 2YO’s but can’t explain it all as it goes way too deep. I don’t actually like betting much on 2YO’s…

1. Official rating… Not the bias RP ratings or any other rating systems. Try to work out if the handicapper has rated your horse correctly. For example your horse was only narrowly beaten by Horse X but the winner X has since won a better/tougher race and is handicapped much higher so your horse maybe under rated. Bigger the difference, the better the chance.

2. Relates to 1. Weigh up the lengths your fancied horse was beaten with your projected handicap mark. For example beaten only by 2L but your projected handicap mark is 10 higher than the official rating. Great chance.

3. I wouldn’t say a must have but a promising run (e.g. unlucky in running, running on, prominent and weakened, ran green etc) helps to strengthen your selection.

4. Big trainer only sends out 1 horse and stable/big jockey only booked for 1 ride? Sometimes even without much or any form shown wins at crazy odds. This only strengthens the selection but not essential.

5. Agree with Ron here I use this too. Time must have been decent, the faster the time the stronger the fancy.

6. Again agree. Other placed horses if having run since must have run/done well.

7. The more racing you watch the more you learn. A picture says a million words… I don’t actually have the time to watch too many replays/videos but try to squeeze in some when I can.

8. Bookies aren’t stupid. Prices can play an important role. Bookies don’t give great odds if they think the horse stands a great chance of winning. For example one of my naps Sud Pacifique was odds on against Dordogne who was 10/1 where Dordogne won and Sud Pacifique came 2nd beaten by 4L. Dordogne went on to do great things and is rated over 100.

The race I backed Sud Pacifique was only rated at 85 which I thought the horse is way underrated because of price. I missed the first time he won after but on the 2nd occasion at a mark of 85 was too good bet to miss out.

8. The most critical of all questions is VALUE. Is there value?
Ask yourself this if you find it difficult to work out value. If the same horse attempts the same race, same conditions, same opponents etc. Can the horse win the race at better than the actual odds? E.g. if priced at 6/1 can the horse win this race at least 1 time out of 6 which means a profit of 1pt over long term if this holds true.

At the moment I’m giving very experimental tips because trying out something new to the equation but still been winning even though the posted selections have been doing okay. I’m probably up about 20pts up since posting tips here. You can go back through some of my selections where I didn’t post as a tip but backed at huge prices and proof was posted. Even one at 25/1 I managed to get on betfair. I don’t think I’m judging the pts system correctly though ATM.
 
A massive bet on Fury in the next coming up! I realy can't see him getting beat, now the rain has eased the ground!

Lump on Fury:biggrin:
 
SimplyTheBlues(STB) said:
Serious plaudits to you. Won at 12/1!!!! <cracker>
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What a cracker. You obviously rated Miss Work of Art very highly to pick that one out. With hindsight, which is so much easier, 12/1 was a spanking place bet with that form against Miss Work of Art. I would not have expected it to win though. Congratulations, keep it up.
 
That has just made me ill, even the cat called Fury the winner! Being done by Hills in a finish what is the world coming to :biggrin:
 
Ron said:
Still at Sandown. I'm assuming the ground has eased a bit and therefore will take 11/8 freely available for Workforce thank you very much.
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Something right at last.
 
Thanks king, was a nice price! So not to bad a night after all. Still cant believe about fury as you said loosing out to johnson what is the world coming too!!
 
I had £5 on a 4 timer at Cheltenham a long time ago (photo finish, stewards enquiry, made me sweat for it). Returned £500. Problem is I still think if only I'd had the guts to put a lot more on (if I'd had any to put on). I spent ages studying the form and using Timeform Ratings and Timeform 50 to follow. Can't remember the prices but 3 were favourites and the first winner was 8/1 (courtesy of Timeform 50 to follow). £5 was all my girlfriend had in cash. Couldn't even pay the tax up front. Best £5 of someone else's money I ever spent.
 
Ron, I think in my life the only multiples I've ever done have been doubles and out of maybe ten doubles I've only had one up <laugh> It's hard enough for me to get one right when I do decide to have an investment!
 
Tell me about it Beef, Whenever I do a double it doesnt come in, and when I just do singles they come in. So from now I just concentrate on getting a winner even if its just one
 
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