Oddy, I have to say that Greg Wood is bang on the money in regards how weak the SP system is at the small racecourses. The amount of time I have stood at a racecourse and watched a bookmaker attract no money but continually shorten horses because of what they are seeing off track is startling, then add in the true amount of money that is actually going through the ring and you would have to say that for the majority of racecourses, the SP system isn't strong and it seems remarkable that you can get horses shortening to 4/6 on course but drifting to 6/4 on betfair. Yet see no-one betting in the ring! It also hints that the theory of horses drifting on Betfair is perhaps more to do with the strength of the market and the battle people are having to get trade on betfair. Obviously racing has corruption issues, but perhaps we have bigger issues with regards false markets?
Morning again, troops. Hope everyone well. Must say that today’s card at Donny is exceptional for a Monday and although I won’t be wagering at it will be watching the action ‘oooooooooooooop North’ very, very closely. Am especially looking forward to see how UTOPIE DES BORDES (1.20), ZUIDER ZEE (1.50) and DARLAN (3.00) get on. The first named of these was a Grade1 winner across the Channel and has already collected over £300k in prizemoney thus far. Current connections bought her for a whopping £255k and as mares always react so positively to Mr Henderson’s ‘magic hands’ further improvement can be guaranteed. Zuidee Zee was a 100+ performer on the level for old boy Gosden and has the potential to make a very decent hurdler for John Ferguson. Meanwhile, Darlan is currently ranked number 2 on my ‘Champion Hurdle Most Likely’ list and really came of age last time at Kempton Park. A similar performance here should make him very hard to beat. Good luck all.
One bet for me, if it wins I may look more at the other novice races. 1.20 Terre Du Vent - 10/1 EW This race looks to revolve around the very solid looking French Chase form of the Nicky Henderson hotpot but I am wary that she has yet to win over hurdles (0 from 7) and her best form has come over fences (4 from 10), and over further (22f). Her class may well see her win this, and she could hack up, but at 1/3 I think she isn't the right price on UK debut (***o was 5/4 in a chase). Terre Du Vent was running a massive race on her hurdles debut, when she fell two out in a Graded race, she looked set to fill the places at worst that day, and whilst she hasn't gone on from that, it is interesting to see her return after a short break with a tongue tie applied. She to me went wrong in some manner last time and she is a better horse than her form shows, and with her having that issue, I think they will have her in tip top shape today for a full fact finding mission. She was classy on the flat, had a turn of foot and I think she may just outspeed the jolly if it is a tactical race. Add in I am worried about the attitude of the King horse who heads the weights and the rest look modest (perhaps Fahey horse is exception) and I think she is a very solid horse today. Each way today, but at 10/1 I think she is a good one to be with.
I like Aaim to Prosper today at 5/2. I think that's a fair price based on his hurdles debut and flat ability.
Vintage Star has to concede weight to all his rivals in the Novice Chase at 2.25, but he's coming along nicely over fences, and clearly benefitted from the step up in trip at Catterick last time. This looks a lot less competitive than the 2m3f beginners chase he contested here in December. Ruben Cotter is the other one being backed, but it's hard to see why. Netminder may be more of a threat following his 2nd to Real Milan at Ayr last month.
One for me today to stick in a double with Darlan 4.25 Wolves Frontier Fighter After finishing a promising second on debut this david o'meara trained gelding stepped up to readily take his maiden last time out at wolverhampton by an unextended 4 lengths over a mile. Doubt he really beat much that day but could hardly have done it any easier. Today he steps into handicap company but in truth this looks a very poor contest. I dont think the drop back to seven furlongs will hinder him and with further improvement to come on only his third ever start i expect this horse to go very close to winning this
This Henderson mare in the opener at Donny may well be the next Pegasus but 1/3 jeeeesus you'd want to be fecking mad to be taking those odds. She is the most likely winner but it's no walkover.
Very intresting runner red good luck with that, think you might grab some place money. The King horse is a decent yardstick, should give us an idea of how good UDB is
Fairly decent. Lots against her in that race but she's come out and done what she never did in France and that's win a hurdle over an inadequate trip. Needed Barry though.
Interesting to see the front two run off levels. She did it well enough in the end. 4th as usual with EW shot
I had ATP as well Red but didn't jump the last well and lost it's chance there and then. Possibly could have challenged if he'd jumped the last well but i doubt the winner would have been beaten.
I think he was just outstayed although he can be a bit of an old dog. A little surprised they ran him over 2m3f on his hurdling debut.
