Yepp WF. After the last three days I have proved to myself I can't just guess and need to study the form shame I hate that part. Not doing anything tonight though so going to give it a go
My dart landed on Dreaming Of Rubies in the next @ York... Though if i threw 20 more darts i wont hit a winner today... Good job ive only bet on two races so far...
Dandana in the next at Newmarket @5-1 (tentative selection) followed by Saminder in the next at Newbury @5-1 (very solid bet) Here's hoping
Can't complain with the run of Qaraaba 8.25 Newcastle Chiswick Bey 22/1 & Eastern Hills 25/1 Both horses look ridiculous prices and I've had to back both as a result. Firstly, Chiswick Bey is a pretty unexposed 4 year old with only 10 starts to date and Richard Fahey's gelding looked a rather progressive animal at the end of last year. Winning on debut, Chiswick Bey contested the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in his 2 year old career and although outclassed, it shows connections like him. On his 4th start Chiswick Bey made his handicap debut off a mark of 85 at the track as he ran out an impressive winner of the small runner field. Subsequently, he was hardly disgraced off marks of 92 and 93 when finishing less than 7L behind the very talented Wooten Bassett before finishing midfield in the Listed 2 YO Trophy at Redcar which rounded off his 2YO campaign. Last year Chiswick Bey was restricted to only 2 starts as a 3 year old so he either suffered an injury or else is difficult to get ready. On his reappearance, he looked as if he needed the run and on is 2nd start during the last campaign he ran a very good race to finish 1.25L behind stablemate Common Touch off a mark of 90, a horse I rate quite highly. The form of that race is strong with Common Touch winning off a 5lb higher mark on his next start with some authority and he has also been beaten by less than a length off a 12lb higher mark. Chiswick Bey's last start came on the back of a 11 month absence where he was disappointing but I'm putting that down as him needing the run. Today he faces a Class 3 7f event at Newcastle, a track where he has been successful on his only start. He's now back to a handicap mark of 89 and considering his 2nd last start was an excellent 2nd behind a progressive rival in a Class 2 event I don't understand how he's a 22/1 shot. Furthermore, Shane B Kelly takes off a further 5lb which should assist his cause. If stripping fitter from his reappearance run, I can see him running a massive race at a price that vastly overstates his chances in my opinion. The other horse Eastern Hills I put up last night at 11/1 but he's drifted out to 25s which is pretty ludacris in my eyes. This 7 year old was progressive at Southwell over the winter and on his last start he was a very big eye catcher at Doncaster. Off the same mark, it didn't seem that his jockey Miss D Lenge had quite come to grips with riding yet as she was basically sitting motionless the whole journey, administering the odd slap of the whip. To my eyes, she had a lot of horse left under her and she was only beaten by 2.5L in the end. The form of that race is strong with the winner No Poppy scoring on her next start off a 5lb higher mark and the 2nd Levitate, who reopposes today, was only beaten by 0.5L off a 4lb higher mark on his only subsequent start. Kirsty Milczarek takes over today and should get a lot more out of her mount. Will be doing a RFC on the pair as well
Saminder a bit unlucky there I thought Bluesky. Not the best of starts and got no sort of run till too late.
5.20 Aintree Arisea 18/1 I think the price of this 9 year old at 18/1 looks absolutely massive with this the first time in ages she'll get ideal conditions to suit. Arisea was last seen earlier this month where she finished a very respectable 7.25L beaten 5th at Kelso off this mark on ground that wasn't ideal and over a trip that was probably on the short side. I remember distinctly James Moffatt saying that this 9 year old needs good ground to be seen at best effect and I certainly tend to agree with him. Off a mark of 110 today, I think she is still definitely capable of winning off her current handicap mark with her last success coming back in November at Catterick over this trip and on this ground. That day Joel Belbin, who is on board again today, gave Arisea a masterful hold up ride and he seemed to have a fair bit left up his sleeve as Arisea scored in the Conditional Jockeys handicap by 1.75L. That was off a mark of 106 and I'm confident she's definitely better than her mark of 110 if on song and on good ground. Todays race is again a Conditional Jockeys race and Belbin, who gets on very well with this mare, takes off a very handy 8lb off his back. Moreover, Arisea gets to take on her own sex today which should make life a little easier for her. Although trainer James Moffatt isn't in the best form at present, I'm confident of a very big showing from Arisea which will hopefully land Belbin his 3rd win on her.
