Daily Thread 12th May 2012

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woolcombe-folly007

woolcombe-folly007

Well-Known Member
May 9, 2011
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It looks like the sun maybe coming out to play; The ground in most places will probably still be soft. It comes from Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield, Nottingham, Thirsk & Warwick.

15.40 Haydock- Red Merlin 8/1

trained by Donald McCain and the mount of Jason Maguire. He's been in very good form over hurdles, both last season and this, before finishing fourth last time out in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr. That was a slightly messy finish; he travelled very strongly and came there with every chance but wasn't beaten far and finished in front of Charm School and Petit Robin who reoppose. Most of his winning form has been on top of the ground but he does have form on soft as well and the course is apparently in very good condition, so I've every hope he'll act. This is a track, after all, that he won the Old Newton Cup on when racing on the flat and Red Merlin has got a touch of class, so off his weight he looks quite attractive here. It is unsurprisingly a wide-open race. Nicky Henderson and his team are represented by Lifestyle, Petit Robin and All The Aces. Lifestyle came good last time when winning at Aintree, beating Conquisto with Dream Esteem in fourth, and after a light winter campaign she's in good form and is one to be wary of. All The Aces is another horse further down the weights who was smart on the flat. He's disappointed on his last two stars but was always a soft ground horse on the level and with those conditions in place he could be set for a big run off a pretty light weight. Others that would have a chance include Arab League, who ran well behind Gibb River at Sandown, while on his best form Ubi Ace, the mount of Tony McCoy, is another to bear in mind. Wide-open, but I'm going to take a chance on Red Merlin for the very much in-form Donald McCain.
 
15.25 Ascot - Brae Hill 12/1

He's been kept for this since winning the Lincoln but is trying to win off a lifetime high mark. He should appreciate handle the ground and he stays further which will help in the conditions.
 
14.00 Haydock- Victors Serenade 8/1

One from my tracker- Quickly made into better chaser than hurdler, impressive when winning pair of Ffos Las handicaps in the mud last season but has had 2 months off so will be difficult to asses but ground and distance will suit.
 
Big Mac cut off in mid speech on The Morning Line, who cheered? <laugh>

10/1 the field in the Swinton, Charm School is a tentative choice for me as he'll relish the going.
 
woolcombe-folly007 said:
14.00 Haydock- Victors Serenade 8/1

One from my tracker- Quickly made into better chaser than hurdler, impressive when winning pair of Ffos Las handicaps in the mud last season but has had 2 months off so will be difficult to asses but ground and distance will suit.
Click to expand...

Fit and ready to go this one Wooly but it's back over hurdles today so needs to translate his chase form to the smaller obstacles. It's all about the ground for this boy and he cant have it soft enough! Yard desperate to get one more run out of him while the ground is like it is!

At 8-1 I am prepared to take the chance that he will translate the chase form to hurdles though its not a circumstance I ever go big following!
 
Morning Stick et al.

One bet for me, Kakatosi in the Victoria Cup. I would give rationale, but I am sure you all can guess my theory.
 
My Selections are as follows
LINGFIELD 16:20 Lowther @ 33/1

Bit of a chancy one this but it could be overlooked that on it's last 2 runs on an A/W surface it won off handicap marks of 97 and 99. It races of 93 today meaning in theory at least it could be well handicapped.

ASCOT 15:25 Nasri @ 18/1
runs quite a few solid races at this level without it winning in these big field handicapped. Ran OK in this race last year and is a few pounds better off this time around than some that finished ahead of it. Pace is likely to be on this side of the draw (high numbers) and the race may be run to suit.

ASCOT 14:50 Diverting @ 15/2

Looks progressive, and if ready to go has a great chance in this, only slight concern is that it may need the run.

HAYDOCK 15:40 Lifestyle @ 14/1

Nicky Henderson could have quite a say in this race with 3 decent chances, with this one Gerraghty's choice. Has some good form at the conditions / trip

HAYDOCK 14:00 Knockara Beau @ 12/1

Quite well handicapped on it's chase form (6th in the Gold Cup). Gave Simonsig a bit of a race earlier this season
 
Not betting at the moment but here my 5 picks in the league comp:

2.00 Haydock Big Occaision - David Pipe's ex-Ballydoyle gelding still looks unexposed over hurdles and relishes testing ground, having won on soft at Carlisle and Heavy at Chepstow. His Carlisle victory, in particular, impressed me as he beat some decent sorts readily. He didn't get the 3m2f at Huntingdon on Boxing Day (probably through pulling too hard) but hopefully the 3 miles today will be OK. Connections were clearly aiming a little high in the Albert Bartlett at the festival but his handicap debut mark of 130 looks workable and he looks to me to have a very decent chance in this - certainly worth an e/w flutter.

3.40 Haydock Red Merlin - the Swinton Hurdle is as competitive as ever this year and unfortunately my original pick, Makbullet, has been scratched. I'll therefore nominate Red Merlin who deserves a crack at this after a fine run at Ayr and ges off the same mark today for a yard that is absolutely flying.

7.25 Kilbeggan Aitmatov - formerly a very decent hurdler who has yet to transform that to the bigger obstacles and is now of course an 11 year-old. The fact that they are perservering with him over fences makes me think he must be showing something to them and I think he is worth another chance today.

8.05 Warwick Teshali - this fella has been with Paul Nicholls and David Pipe, with both managing just the 1 win apiece with him. Martin Keighley has slowly been improving him and he ran a fine 2nd last time out. Admittedly Willy Twiston-Davies claiming 7lbs would have helped his cause that day, but for some reason I just think today could be his day. I will probably be proved wrong.

8.35 Warwick Sapphire Moon - Alan Kings P2P winner looks a bit of value to me against the Hendo hotpot <ok>

Best of luck everyone
 
Small stakes treble on the following:

Ascot 2.20 Aiken
Nottingham 2.45 Colbyor
Ascot 5.40 Gruemti


Also picked these up from another forum (think its from the guy Quel used to put up selections from although I could be mistaken?? Anyway he's usually fairly successful)
Lingfield 2.10 Marvada e/w
Ascot 4.35 Moretta Blanche
 
Good morning chaps and i see we have blue sky outside with so few white clouds...!!! Is this it, the start to summer, all 4 days of it...<laugh><laugh>

Any way just posting what if done in the comp, but nowt fanciful...

Haydock...
2.00 - Tracey Shuffle, 9/1
The going wont be a problem here but maybe the distance will. Won at 2m4 in soft and Ayr last month by a ever growing 30l distance and hopefully the extra 4 furlongs wont be a prob here...

3.05 - Our Johnathon, 5/4
Ayr Gold Cup winner making his reappearance today and i just think conditions will suit to win on his reappearance...

3.40 - Red Merlin, 6/1 - Really like this horse and was in my 10 to follow. McCain on fire at the mo and hoping Red Merlin can carry on his momentum and take this one... It is a open race but im ever hopeful as with the rest of the forum who have picked him...

4.15 - Firebeam, 6/4
A bit of a coin toss between the top 2 in the market, and im siding with Firebeam with his CD form...

4.50 - Mr Spiggott, 4/1
Can win on soft or heavy ground and ran well lto at Ripon even though he finished 4th. Can come on for that run plus he is another CD winner, so that swayed me...

Singles and doubles around... Good luck today with whatever your bets are...<cheers>
 
Good review of the Swinton Hurdle (15:40 Haydock) by Simon Holt on SL website. Red Merlin certainly seems the one to be on here, but I'll not be having a bet today. Will be watching the German Cup Final later. Wonder if Dortmund can put it to Bayern yet again? I know for a fact that Bayern are desperate to beat them, but somehow they've got to work out how Dortmund keep shutting-out their match winners, Ribery and Robben, time after time the last two seasons. Hope Mr. Di Matteo will be watching and taking notes!
 
Morning All - A bit of sun at last !!!! Pricewise's 3 for what they are worth are 3.25 Ascot - Pravda Street 40's into 20s with 365. And Red Merlin / All The Aces in the hurdle race. Good luck all. Anyone think Frankel could get turned over by any of the fiddler O'Briens horses next week in the Lockinge ?? His workout looked phenomenal last week and he has filled out like a heavyweight boxer now - so muscular.
 
3.40 Hayock Ubi Ace e/w 14/1

I like the look of Ubi Ace today. I think he'll appreciate the cut in the ground after two disappointing runs latest at Cheltenham and Aintree. The form of his 3 races before that, all of which had cut in the ground, is pretty good. Stormy Weather, who beat Ubi Ace a length when receiving lumps, ran 2l 2nd to Palawi off of 8lbs higher next time out (and Palawi had a 7lb claimer on top). 2 races before, Ubi Ace won on good to soft at Sandown with subsequent big race winners Gibb River and Edgardo Sol running in behind. That suggests to me that Ubi Ace's mark today isn't beyond him and the champ gets the ride for the 1st time ever. I know there's only so much a jockey can do but I'm really excited about McCoy getting the ride today as I think he's got to be worth a few pounds at least. With 4 places paid I think this one is worth an e/w bet.


With it being the 1st nice day in a while I'm ashamed to admit I won't be watching - the golf course calls - but good luck to all who play.
 
Morning guys, another day for the mudlarks and AW types heres my fancies:

Ascot

3.25 RODRIGO DE TORRES 25/1 & NASRI 20/1 EW and finally If i had to narrow my main choice the other one that catches my eye is the Jeremy Gask newcomer COOL MARBLE who has decent form on soft in France and is a very tasty 33/1. Small EW money on them all.

4.35 ROTHSAY CHANCER 6/1

5.10 BUNCE 9/2


Haydock

2.00 KNOCKARA BEAU 16/1 EW

3.40 DREAM ESTEEM 16/1 EW

Lingfield

4.20 STAGE ATTRACTION 14/1 EW
 
At Haydock. Nice when the sun is out. Nice crowd.
2.00 The Tracey Shuffle 9/1
Gunna swerve 2.35 (will be in the bar)
3.05 Markab
3.40 Dreambrook Lady
4.15 Red Jazz (NAP)
4.50 Clare Island Boy
5.25 Mica Mika
G/L everyone today...... Bring on the winners
Mica N/R in last, Sugar is the selectiom
 
It is sunny today but we are only getting away with it for the weekend - by Tuesday there is more rain arriving.

Punters may be hoping that it keeps raining until the first week in June so that the Epsom Classics are run on soft ground.

It is looking like all the trials races will have been run on soft ground or all weather, so if it dries up the form will not be worth a candle. Personally I do not bet when it is soft so my money is staying in my wallet at the moment.

The Chester form is all soft ground, the Lingfield Oaks and Derby Trial form will be meaningless as they are not on turf and the current going at York for the Musidora and Dante is soft. If it dries up, will this be against Montjeu colt Camelot?
 
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