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Daily Racing Thread. Thur. 29th. Dec

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by mwildcats, Dec 28, 2011.

  1. Grizzly

    Grizzly Active Member

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    Without wishing to get into an entirely different conversation I actually think exchanges signalled the start of everything that's wrong in racing, that said, as an honest punter there's better value to be had so it's hard not to recommend them
     
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  2. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Have just registerd with them, will give it ago for tomorrow, see how I get on lol
     
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  3. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    think ill stick to just the backing and not laying!
     
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  4. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Wooly, I have had an account for a while.

    In general, they are the best antepost firm by some distance.

    If you ever back something that is around 25s-33s with standard bookies, you could be looking at 50s+ with Betfair so in that sense they are very good, but then again how many 33/1 winners do we back?


    As for the laying- you have probably seen my laying tips and website at http://betfairlayking.weebly.com/index.html which documents my progress. It divides opinion really. Some people will tell you that it opens the door for crooks, and there is no doubt it is a system there to be taken advantage of. That said, it is also a great tool for honest punters, backing or laying.

    If you want some laying tips, here is my advice:

    In horse racing, over a season you are looking at around 25% of favourites winning. In general, you are going to get favourites usually less than 4/1, but with the odd big handicap selections as big as perhaps 7/1. In my own experiment, I have rigidly stuck to a rule of not laying any horse bigger than 4/1. If you think about it, around 75% of the favourites don't win, and a huge chunk of those favourites will be less than 4/1 in price, and an average favourite might be 5/2 or 3/1. Basic calculations therefore tell you that providing you are selective, patient, and sensible with lay betting, even if you lay one winner in 4 bets, you will either still break even or perhaps show a profit. So you are aiming for a 75% strike rate, which over the long-term is really achieveable (if you get near to 90% and stick to my 'no lays bigger than 4/1' rule, you will show a handsome profit.)

    Every single mainstream bookmaker in our country shows yearly profits. So long-term, lay betting can make a lot of sense. I have shown a level stakes profit of £10.55 from 24 lay bets.


    But the key has been 1) Not to bet every day 2) Careful selection and taking on the right horses at unecessarily short prices.



    Just lay the minimum stake (£2), so that your 'exposure' (i.e, the money that you would pay the backer if their horse that you are laying wins) is never greater than £8. That way you can just get a feel for lay betting and if you lose, you wont lose a lot. It is down to you to set your rules and stick to them, as it must be treated as a long-term thing.


    Betfair is a good site if you do your homework and make sure you are clear in what you want to do. Without any question the best for ante-post betting, and certainly useful if you are good at picking losers at short prices.
     
    #124
  5. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Toppy!:emoticon-0148-yes: Some really useful advice- will go by that!
     
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  6. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    I can see why people don't like it but, as Toppy says, it can be a useful tool.

    How often have you looked at a race and thought I don't know who I fancy, but the favourite can't win. Using Betfair means you can lay that favourite rather than trying to find something to beat it with. If you just don't fancy something at all and think it's hugely underpriced then the same logic applies.

    A couple of examples that I've done this season is Master Minded to place in the King George and Robinson Collonges to place in the 3m Fixed Brush Hurdle, I just didn't give either any chance at all.

    As with betting it can go wrong and at Cheltenham this season I was convinced that Join Together couldn't win but couldn't split Mossley and Champion Court. I therefore decided to lay Join Together and he went and won. No disaster, but you have to be careful because your liability is bigger than your profit unless you're laying odds on.

    It is useful, it can be profitable, but must be treated with caution.
     
    #126
  7. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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