Daily Racing thread AKA Pay Day Thread - Wednesdaty 20th February

Doncaster 3.55 Dawn Twister 16/1

 

I really fancy the chances of Chatterbox 20/1 for the Supreme. Unbeaten so far, taking the scalp of the classy My Tent Or Yours who is now generally 2/1 fav for the race. Admittedly he was getting a 4yo allowance from MTOY that day but still won convincingly by 4 1/2 lengths. He then went on to give 16lb and a beating to the well regarded Lac Fontana. I believe there is more value to be had at 20/1 eway than backing MTOY at 2/1.

 

I think the Chatterbox form with MTOY needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, I dont think he would ever beat him again.
Chatterbox is a nice gelding but very workmanlike. I would be amazed if he were good enough to make the frame in the Supreme.

 

2.50 Doncaster: ZITENKA 7/1- Looks like this one could be plotted up- dropped to a mark of 127 (3lb below last winning one) and has the champion on board. The key thing really is the lack of obvious pace, and the presence of many out of form rivals. Always Waining is having a prep for Aintree (National), West End Rocker is probably doing something similar, Swing Bill has it all to do off this mark, likewise Corkage, whilst Dashing George is up 8lb and on his 7th racer of the season going into this, and Prophet De Guye petering out after another bright start to the season. The ones to be concerned with are Monkerty Tunkerty and Marufo, but with both of them likely to be vying for the lead together, Zitenka ought to get a nice sit in 3rd in this race and can kick past them turning for home. I can't see the hold up horses getting into this because it will be a bit of cat and mouse and no breakneck pace. I know that sounds odd but Monkerty and Marufo aren't the sorts to go hard at it- they will try to kick on and burn them off.

3.25 Doncaster: SNAKE EYES 4/1 The much better ground should make all the difference here and he will relish a flat track like Doncaster. If AP settles him I think he will win this cheekily. He probably hit the front a bit too soon at Kempton last time and ended up getting in a fight with a tough mare, which is not what he would have wanted on his first start, and he didn't help himself by pulling in the soft conditions. His potential is massive but his resolution will be key if he is to progress to the expected heights. His hurdling is very good. Minella Definitely won again from the front at the weekend and that loss, with the pair a mile clear, should not be dismissed out of hand and Snake Eyes can prove a serious horse on much better spring ground.

 

I don't see why it should be taken with a pinch of salt Stick. Am I missing something here? He won quite well in the MTOY race. Fair enough he was getting 5lb and the pace was muddling but to still put 4 1/2 lengths between himself and MTOY on his hurdling debut I couldn't help but be impressed. He is also expected to be better suited by a stronger pace which he will get in the Supreme and better ground than we have seen him on thus far. I dont think he can be dismissed lightly and at 20/1 I will be having a decent eway bet when the bookies go non runner no bet.

 

Drever, I think he looks a cracking prospect.

The concern is that he is quite big prices on Betfair for both the Neptune and the Supreme, and Henderson did say he was a bit of a raw horse who he expected needed time.

I think he has earnt the right to go to Cheltenham but it seems up in the air.

 

I am with you on this one Gallop as at that price you do not need much on to speculate on getting the day right and Tony Carroll will use Jim Crowley as a job jockey when needed. I have also done an each way double with their runner Missionaire later in the evening, If getting to the front this horse can have a real go and is a great price for a place at least at 16-1.

Good Luck

 

I think I may have read somewhere that Henderson thinks he could need a little more time but like you have said, he has earned the right to go to Chelts. I have seen him in both the Supreme and Neptune but the way he has ran so far indicates he has plenty of speed so I would imagine the Supreme would suit best. I haven't invested in him just yet as there are no concrete plans at the minute but when it goes NRNB I shall be having a punt.

 

For anyone who hasn't seen, Aiden O'Brien runs two in the 4.45 bumper at Punchestown (note also the Fame & Glory silks in the same race) whilst in the following bumper Willie Mullins introduces a nicely bred sort in some very recognizable national hunt silks.

 

When Marufo won his latest start at Aintree he sat in behind the pace for the vast majority of the race before taking up the running at 4 out and just seeing out the trip so I don't think he's going to go from the front from the start. He's the one I strongly fancy (although Zitenka is the definite worry) and I'll pop up a write up now soon enough.

 

3.55 Doncaster

Cocacobana 17/2

Although this looks a tricky contest, I'm sticking with Cocacobana who I put up on his last start when given a very suspect ride by Tom O'Brien to finish an eye-catching 3rd and despite being raised 3lb by the handicapper for that effort I think he's going to relish the step back up in trip to an extended 3m tomorrow and I think he's going to run a very big race. After making his debut back in March 2010 for Rebecca Curtis in a Bumper, Cocacobana joined Graeme McPherson after that and after nearly a year off and after running in three quick novice hurdles in the spring of 2011 and he made a winning handicap debut on the back of 7 month absence over an extended 2m4f at Uttoxeter in November 2011 off a mark of 100. Under 10lb claimer Killian Moore, Cocacobana came from the clouds that day to get up and score by a head as he certainly left the form of his novice hurdles behind. After slightly disappointing a month later when finishing 3rd at Haydock last year off a mark of 104, he improved again significantly to score off the same mark on his next start in February last year to score impressively by 8L and he followed that up with another victory off a mark of 112 a month later over 3m at Chepstow when putting in a very determined display to score by 1.5L in a race that looks pretty decent form. Cocacobana's final start for McPherson came off a mark of 120 at Cheltenham in April last year when a little disappointing before joining his current trainer.

Cocacobana's first start for the Bowen yard came at Ffos Las over 2m4f last month off a 1lb lowermark of 120 where he ran an encouraging race and he definitely shaped as if he would come on for the run. Cocacobana travelled quite sweetly for much of the race under Tom O'Brien and looked to have every chance at 3 out but he seemed a very weary horse on the run in as he made mistakes at the final two flights as he faded to a 13L beaten 4th in a race that looks pretty useful form. After being dropped 2lb for that run to a mark of 118, he reappeared 18 days ago over the same C+D when shaping very nicely and I think he could have gone very close to winning had Tom O'Brien gotten after him sooner. Held up out wide and close enough to the pace, Cocacobana got squeezed up and shuffled back in the field at a crucial time in the race coming up to the 6th flight as an injection of pace soon followed and he found himself towards the rear of the main bunch. Coming into the home turn, Tom O'Brien was very slightly niggling Cocacobana along despite being about 8 or 9L off the pace and it wasn't until after the final flight until O'Brien raised the whip on him and he responded really well for pressure (not even an all out drive) to fly at the finish and finish a little over 3L back in 3rd. I strongly believe that had O'Brien got after this 8 year old sooner then he would have gone very close to landing that Ffos Las contest. The 5th Jumps Road has come out and won when landing a gamble off a 2lb lower mark at the weekend and I think the form will be franked again soon enough.

The handicapper doesn't seem to have taken any chances with Cocacobana by raising him 3lb to a mark of 121 and although its going to make life more difficult for him I'm hoping it doesn't stop him. Based on his last run, the step up to 3m should definitely suit and the return to a sounder surface shouldn't be any issue despite his recent efforts coming in very testing conditions. Tom O'Brien once again takes the ride (if he's recovered from a very heavy fall at Wetherby today) and hopefully he'll be more vigorous in a finish today. One massive negative has to be Peter Bowen's 0-27 record at Doncaster and its definitely something I didn't want to see but he's sending a horse who is in good form to a race that suits him and I can't see any reason why Cocacobana won't be at least trying to win. Although this looks a tricky little contest, I believe that this 8 year old is still on a good mark of 121 and with only 12 career starts to date he's unexposed for his age. If all goes to plan, I'm confident of a big showing from Peter Bowen's gelding and hopefully he can come out on top of this competitive looking contest.

 

2.30 Lingfield

Valdaw 4/1

I'm extremely surprised to see Mike Murphy's 5 year old such a big price and this looks like a classic case of the bigger named (and bang in form) Gary Moore's representative being over bet. Formerly with Tony Carroll, Valdaw seemed a very frustrating horse to follow going 0-17 for that trainer but the switch to the excellent Mike Murphy yard has made all the difference and he has started out life for his new trainer with a perfect 2-2 thus far and I think he'll take an awful lot of beating tomorrow. Valdaw she his Maiden tag at the 18th time of asking on his stable debut when a very comfortable winner from a next time out winner off a mark of 55 last month at Kempton and he followed that victory up off a 5lb higher mark of 60 LTO at the end of January when value for a lot more than the 0.5L margin suggests under Willie Twiston-Davies when given a very canny ride that left me in no doubt that Valdaw had quite a bit more left in the tank. He's up another 5lb to a mark of 65 and is effectively 10lb higher than his latest success when taking Twiston-Davies claim into account as Eddie Ahern (who partnered him to his Maiden success) reclaims the ride. In my opinion, this looks a straight shoot out between Valdaw and current market leader Dorothy's Dancing and its very interesting that both those rivals beat the same horse Waterloo Dock and are both 5lb higher today than when beating that rival (Dorothy's Dancing has finished a fast finishing 2nd in the interim period). Despite shouldering top weight and having a poor draw in stall 10, I'm confident that Valdaw can beat Gary Moore's charge and 4/1 is an absolutely massive price in my book.

2.50 Doncaster

Marufo 5/1

Although I'd love to see current favourite Swing Bill land this Veteran Handicap, I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't find a couple of horses too good and I think Philip Hobbs's 11 year old Marufo has an excellent chance of landing this contest. Formerly with Heather Dalton until early 2010, Marufo has benefited greatly for the switch to the Hobbs yard and despite his elderly age he looks on an upward curve. Lightly raced in recent times, Marufo had a fine season last year scoring once off a mark of 120 and finishing a fine 4th in a Listed contest at Aintree last April off a mark of 127 and he started this season with a bang when scoring in a similar Veterans race at Aintree in October last year off a mark of 126. Sitting in the midfield, Marufo overcame a few chancey jumps early on to progress nicely through the 9 runner field to take up the running after 4 out. Still travelling the best, I'm not sure if Marufo was weary or wandering up the home straight as he was all out to hold the fast finishing Dashing George but it was an impressive victory nonetheless. Dashing George, who reopposes tomorrow, has gone on to score twice this season and it makes Marufo's 3lb rise for that victory seem very manageable. Moreover, you'd have to be a bit surprised if Dashing George was able to reverse the placings now meeting Marufo on 9lb worse terms and I feel that he should comfortably account of that rival. Looking at the rest of the field, I think you can discount most of their chances and I think the biggest danger will come from Tim Easterby's Zitenka who looks on a workable mark and for whom A P McCoy looks a strong booking. However, I definitely feel Marufo is on a very workable of 129 and he comes here fresh (which should pose no concern at all) having waited for better ground which he gets tomorrow. Richard Johnson again resumes his partnership with this valiant 11 year old and with a lovely racing weight of 10-11 and with the Hobbs yard in fine form I think he represents a stonking e/w bet to nothing. However, I'm quietly confident he'll come out on top in front.

3.15 Ludlow

To Live 9/2

I think there is every chance that Nick Gifford's unexposed 6 year old could prove much better than his current mark of 107 and although I'd prefer if the trip was over a little further I think he'll relish the return to testing conditions tomorrow and he could prove a class above this field. Formerly trained in France, To Live left behind some average form in 3 Bumpers when scoring impressively to win by an easy 8L at Auteil over 18f on very soft ground in March of last year which prompted J P McManus to buy him and send him training with Nick Gifford. To Live made a very inauspicious start to his career in England over hurdles with two very poor efforts for Gifford in October last year but he's definitely shown quite a bit more ability in his 2 starts over fences to date. This 6 year old made his chasing debut over 2m at Warwick on soft ground in December when finishing a 12L beaten 5th under McCoy on what looked an educational ride on his first start over the larger obstacles. After two novicey jumps at the first two flights of fences, To Live's jumping improved as he hugged the rail throughout the contest before he clouted 5 out when he looked as if he was just about to make a forward move. Knowing that he would have had to chuck the kitchen sink at his chasing debutant if he was to have any chance of winning, McCoy sensibly allowed To Live to come home at his own time and it was a pretty promising run.

To Live made his handicap debut over fences last month at Leicester over 2m off his current mark of 107 and I think he would have run a big race before a slip on landing cost him any chance. Sitting prominent throughout, To Live was very slightly getting niggled by McCoy coming to 4 out when he jumped the fence fine but slipped and slithered on landing and dropped back to nearly last when McCoy again sensibly decided his winning chance had gone as he allowed him to come home under tender handling to finish a nearly 20L beaten 5th. If that slip hadn't happened, I don't think To Live would have won given that the eventual winner had just passed him into 2nd at the flight where he slipped but I think he got a little outpaced on the good to soft ground at the time and he could have easily rallied under urgings had the incident not happened. Regardless, its a moot point but that race has worked out ridiculously well for a race of this grade. The winner Arthur's Pass was an eased down winner from a subsequent scorer in a better race off a 7lb higher mark on his only start since whilst the 2nd Prince Of Dreams also scored on his only subsequent start by 6L off a 2lb higher mark. Additionally, the 12L beaten 3rd Rouge Et Blanc (who clearly benefited massively from the step up in trip) has been an easy winner of his only two starts and is now rated 23lb higher than for his latest success and the 4th Jack The Gent (1L ahead of To Live) has finished runner up on his only two starts since. Given that To Live was appreciably less vigorously handled than he could have been barring that slip, the form of that race leads me to believe that To Live could be on an extremely nice handicap mark of 107 and that doesn't even take into consideration he's entitled to progress significantly given he's so lightly raced. This 6 year old also takes a slight drop in class and looking through the opposition this looks a much, much simpler task with current favourite Bobby Dove being a potential fly in the ointment. Tom Cannon takes off a very useful 3lb to offset his large weight as he takes the ride on board To Live for the first time. With Nick Gifford's string in fine form at the moment, I think there is a strong chance To Live could be absolutely chucked in off a mark of 107 and if he wins by a wide margin it would not surprise me in the slightest.

 

Good to see you back posting Gallop

Had a quick look at this one and I agree that this has punt written all over it, especially as its Tony Carroll trained. Dropped to a Class 5 today and Crowley (who was on board when Carroll landed the punt on Secret Millionaire recently) booked certainly suggest today could be the day.

 

ROTO, Cheers mate, I must have been thinking of another horse who sat prominently. Monkerty will likely set the pace then. That probably suits more as I am hopeful McCoy will be close enough to the pace.

 

Snake Eyes for me aswell Toppy

 

SOLWAY SAM 3.55 Donc 40-1 big springer but still get the 40's if you fancy a dabble (totesport, boylesports & betfred)

 

ROTO: Morning, Jeez, that's my reading done for the day!

 

Anyone care to lay me 6/4 that we get a non-runner in the 3.55 at Donny to take it down to three places???

 

Morning guys a rare midweek appearance from me and a late start so took the opportunity to check out todays cards, todays fancies in no praticular order:

Doncaster

2.50 CORKAGE 15/2
3.55 HARVEYS HOPE 13/2

Both from the Keith Reveley yard who seems to have his horses bang on at the moment, both look reasonably well handicapped and have good course form. HARVEYS HOPE looks to be on the upward curve and is upped in distance today which shouldnt pose too much of a problem, meanwhile CORKAGE is back over jumps after a run out over hurdles and looks very well handicapped, if he can run to his mark he is a C&D winner and is a very strong shout. Add to this info i received last week that any of the stables runners this week are in with a shout and they worth a nibble.

Interestingly that information seems to be going to plan, with 2 from 3 this week for the Reveley yard.

Ludlow

2.40 FOXS DECREE 5/1
3.45 ULTIMATE 4/

Both look weighted to go close and ULTIMATE looks as if he may be getting back to his best LTO and on that form go go close.

Finally on the AW at Kempton tonight i think i may have unearthed a gem at decent price, in the 7.00 NAVAJO CHARM 28/1 looks to be in with strong place/win claims, with a 7lb claimer on board she is down to a very nice mark of 53, distance shouldnt be a problem and is 10lbs better off than her last run here when she was beaten by 11l into 5th and is the stables first runner this year and is the only for entry for them and jockey.

Good look to all who play today