Palace are 11/10 Leeds are 13/5 We'll most likely lose but because we've got good fighting spirit under Jesse it's entirely possible we might not.
Got a feeling Gnonto will prove to be the bargain buy of the season by any PL club. Absolute quality - hope he starts.
Either going by total squad value or average player market value, we are the 4th lowest. Other than Bournemouth, I would group all the teams from Nottingham Forest to Southampton of being a similar skill level player wise. Thus the difference between winning and losing those games, will be one of managerial tactics, players will to compete and a small element of luck or a piece of individual skill Newcastle to West Ham are the more tougher games, they are all potentially still winnable. The same elements as above are still required but they need to be more favourable for ourselves than in those previous fixtures. The last group between Scum and Man City are the ones where you don't expect to get anything, but you hope for a good performance and if the opposing team fail to perform, and lady luck is on our side, then there is a chance of an upset. Edit : Just an addendum, compared to last season the total market value of our squad has reduced by £12m from £269.5m, however the average market value per player has increased from £7.7m to £9.54m. In our first season back in the EPL, our total market value for the squad was £214m (so approx. equivalent to Fulham this season) and the average market value per player was £5.49m (so just less than Bournemouth this season). The season we won the Championship, we had an average player market value of £2.5m, although Fulham were top with an average market value of £2.9m per player. 14 Clubs had an average market value of over £1m per player. Our players total market value was £90m (35 players) In the season we lost out in the play offs, our average player market value was £1.7m, 8 teams had a higher value per player than ourselves, 6 clubs had an average of over £2m per player and 3 of those clubs exceeded an average market value of £3m per player. 16 clubs had an average market value of over £1m per player. Our players total market value was £85m (48 players) In Radz first full season at the club (when TC was coach), our average market value per player was £1.5m with a total squad market value of £74m (47 players) In each of the 3 seasons in the Championship (under Radz) there was at least one club who's squad market value was over £100m. In the final season under Cellino our squad market value was £45m (37 players).
I was counting those into the "element of luck", although I do agree that they could also be classed in a category of their own
Lovely analysis Aski. So 4th bottom is par. We’re currently 12th. Jesse doing a great job. FACT/END OF/err…opinion.
Hence the Jamster predicitng 17th for us this season. Some of us just have a sixth sense for these things whereas you mere mortals need to work your bollocks of to come to the same conclusion.
This is actually how I try and do my pre season predictions. I do an expect and what do I hope for. Green section I expect 0 points either home or away, but I hope for 3 points at home. Yellow section, I expect 10 points from home games and 6 points away. I hope for 12 points at home and 8 points away. Blue section, I expect 12 points from home games and 8 points from away, but I hope for 15 points at home and 10 points away. The orange section my expectation and hope is the same, 3 points from both home and away games. Thus my expectation is that we would get 42 points but hopefully 54 or somewhere in between. Until we move into the yellow section for average player value, then that is my prediction for all forthcoming seasons as well. To get to that section, we need to spend another £150m without increasing squad size, so basically we need to sell 10 of our £10m players and replace them with 10 £15m players. Going by last season. We got 0 points from the teams in the green section. We did poorly against the yellow teams at home, picking up just 3 points, but got 8 points away from home, so we were overall 5 points less than I expected. In the blue section we got 12 points at home and 9 points away and took all 6 points from the team that would've been in the orange section. Our achilles heal last season was the failure to win at home against any of the teams in the yellow section, picking up just 3 draws, whilst we performed as I would expect in every other section, which overall meant that we got 4 points less than I expected. So far this season, based on who we have played and whether they are home or away, we should have between 9-10 points, my hope for total would've been 14 points. So we are down on what I hoped, but in line for what I expected. So whilst I can get frustrated about some of our performances, and be disappointed that we haven't achieved what I hoped for, I can't get too angry because we are performing as I expected , at least on a points basis. Of course others on here will have greater or lesser expectations and hopes than myself, so will quite rightly disagree with my analysis, but I just try to be conservative with my expectations to minimise any disappointment when results don't go the way I hoped Hoped you enjoyed this brief look into my brain, and I am sure that for most of you it's confirmed that I am just plain barmy
Let me put my 2 cents into this squad valuation argument. Sorry, Doc but you are talking absolute bollocks. There are plenty of factors that dictate a team's position at the end of the season. We'll start with the coach. Let's face it you bring in the wrong coach and you're screwed. Steve Cooper is a championship manager at best, He's brought in 23 players this summer and at the looks of the talent he has a mid-table side possibly higher but they're currently lying in 20th after being humped by both City and Leicester in the 1st 2 months of the season. Why? Cos he's not Premier League standard. You can see the same with Newcastle last season under Bruce. When Howe came in they started to improve. Then you've got to factor in the playing squad. Let's start with Ronaldo, he upset the Man Utd squad last season. He doesn't get on with Maguire and Cavani has openly said to the press that he would have left Old Trafford if he knew they were bringing in Ronaldo. Lukaku is another prime example from last season. He wanted to be at Inter last season so his head wasn't in the game and it affected Chelsea. You need the right selection of players and I'm sorry that I'm praising Fergie for this but he was the master at it. Fergie knew talent and he brought it in. He could have signed the likes of Ronaldo De Silva from Inter or Ajax but he brought in Yorke. He could have brought in Gerrard or Lampard but he brought in Carrick. The same goes for us under O'Leary. If you watch Under The Cosh on YouTube. Dom Matteo said that the team had a great vibe behind them and we were getting into the Champions League. There's the behind-the-scenes element as well. We did horrendously with Celino, especially cos he was a bad owner. He sacked McDermott before he was able to actually buy the club. It affects the team. He brought in his own players and then they went on strike. We may see the Bates era as very dark days for the club but there was a tad bit of stability and the club went forward. Yes, players were being sold left-right, and centre but we were a Championship club and at the time Norwich was a Prem club managed by Lambert.
Great analysis and point of view on expectations, ot much difference from mine although some say its bollox, but is it? Rodgers under performing and would have been sacked if King Power could afford it. Rodgers may just get the chance to run it around. Moyes needs to do that too because his team under performing. Lage sacked for underperforming and Gerrard is also on the edge due to how much his club have spent. Yet there are coaches who are capable of getting more out of their squads like Potter, Bielsa and Moyes last year. Fulham and Brentford doing well so far too, so the coach can make a big difference to a squads expected performance but a coach who hasnt got his club where they’re e oected to be usually loses his job. Wolves mentioned Cooper being crap? My opinion is ghat hes one of the best coaches around. And today has signed a new contract. He took over Forest who were indanger of relegation and he stopped the bleeding and powered them into the premier league with only a handful of players and a load of loans. Yes he spent a lot on 20+ players and so far its not worked however some of ghe football is stunning and if his strikers were a little better they would be higher up the table.
Yes Forest are bedding in their new players. Sounds just like us and the striker problem. My view is a striker was a must pre season. Gelhardt could have been offloaded for a good fee.
brilliant... and barmy in equal measures I don't have the attention span for full season predictions! I don't look much further than looking at the next match. I usually check out the opponents form, not just results but, performances. Hence i look at stats like xg as a guide to whether a team is getting what there play deserved, whether they have been unlucky or lucky. From our own team's perspective. I'm less results focussed and more interested in how we're playing, whether the side is getting into promising positions, creating opportunities v conceding them. Obviously i recognise that poor results and table pressure can then begin to impact on confidence and performance. I think we've had a relatively kind start to the season fixtures wise, so i'm not getting carried away with mid-table - far from it, but i have been encouraged by most of the performances. Certainly we've had some home games where you'd be looking for 3 points and only got 1. But it's the prem, if things don't go your way, anyone can beat anyone. Palace are a decent side, went down to a last minute winner to chelsea, arsenal's win there flattered them. Away from home they got a deserved draw at newcastle, a draw at liverpool. I'm not sure why people think we should expect to go there and win.
jess on palace: "When you talk about the start Palace have had, you need to talk about their opponents. They’ve played pretty well through that phase. You can be fooled. It’s a hostile environment down there. We somehow got out with a 0-0 draw last year. " Seemed to be talking up paddy and jimmy.
I'd like to see Jimmy get a decent run in the team. If he can get anywhere near the level he was the other Friday with the first team he could end up one of our best players. Unfortunately he seems to be a little uncomfortable playing with the first team. Might be a confidence thing but I think a run of games would do him a world of good.
it’s one of those things… some players can look worldies at u21 level and not be able to step up, (ie they have a set of skills that don’t work again at bigger/faster/stronger/more skilled opponents) others make it seamlessly With Jimmy when he first came into the team it looked like confidence… ie he was playing safe all the time. He looked a bit of a threat at Brentford for the first time. The coaches will know if he can do it against the first teamers in training, and whether it’s confidence or physicality. With sinisterra out, Sunday may be the day we find out. If he starts they really fancy him. If they go rod at 10 and aaronson wide, maybe they’re not sure.
