Counting Snow Flakes.

Plymborn

Plymborn

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May 3, 2011
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Predicting how many points Argyle will have by teatime on May 5th...is probably harder than counting snow flakes.

With only current form to go by.......... the 5th of May seems light years away.

Some teams will go on a good run of form......... others will falter like Macclesfield at present.

So here goes.

Average points required to stay up over the last ten years is.....47 pts.

Points at present.....24 pts.


18th Feb.....Accrington S.....away..........lose..........24 pts.

21st/22nd we have no mid-week match, but........Northampton v Macclesfield..........it is possible that we could be bottom of the league again.

25th Feb.....Dag & Red.....home..........win............27 pts...........(we must not lose this match).

28th Feb.....Macclesfield.....away........draw...........28 pts............Important to try and win this one.

3rd Mar.....Gillingham.......home.........draw...........29 pts.............Gillingham struggling at present.......could win this.

6th Mar.....AFC Wimbledon.....away.....lose............29 pts............they are slipping....possibilities of something from this.

10th Mar....Rotherham......away..........lose............29 pts............cannot see us getting anything,they stuffed us at home.

17th Mar....Shrewsbury.....home.........lose............29 pts............going for play offs,....they will want to repay us for Fletchers last minute goal.

20th Mar....Bristol R.........home.........win.............32 pts............if we cannot win this..... I think it will be all over for us.

24th Mar....Northampton...away.........win.............35 pts............must.must win this one........all depends if we have beaten Rovers (momentum).

31st Mar....Bradford.........home........win..............38 pts............another big game....must win.

6th Apr.....Hereford.........away.........draw............39 pts............if we're doing well......we might win it.

9th Apr....Aldershot.........home........draw.............40 pts...........same as above.

14th Apr..Swindon..........away.........lose..............40 pts...........are we there home jinx team.....maybe.

21st Apr...Oxford...........home.........draw.............41 pts..........biggest defeat of the season at Oxford........revenge !!!

28th Apr..Morecambe.....away..........lose..............41 pts..........might be wrong about this one.....about time we had some luck.

5th May..Cheltenham.....home.........draw.............42 pts..........we both might be desperate for the points.

On the face of it 42 points is not enough..........but in the last ten years Stockport County stayed up in 2005/6 with 52 pts,....... in 2008/9 Grimsby stayed up with only 41 points...... that was the year that Luton got relegated with a 30 pt deduction,...... Rotherham and Bournemouth survived with 17 pts deductions.......and Darlington had 10 pts deducted (they would of been promoted otherwise)....... so we need to hope that someone breaks the rules and gets penalized........ or Plymouth start playing out of their skins.
 
Ah!, if only life itself were that predictable. Just because you are on top of the prediction league plymborn please don't let it fo to your head. The point I keep making when I read this sort of thing is it is useless unless you do the other 4 teams in the zone along with ourselves. If you did then perhaps 2 of them would come out with 41 points and we would be safe. If you are that bored with nothing else to do go and try it. Personally I'd rather just see how it goes in real life.
 
Good old dependable moaning sensible.......what would we do without you.....(answers on a postcard please).

It's just a bit of fun....done with tongue in cheek.......just waiting to be blown out of the water at 5pm this afternoon by Argyle winning 6-0 at Accrington Stanley.

I could have bored you more sensible .........by telling you that Fletcher is averaging less than 1.1 pts per match......meaning that his 37 matches this season on average will be worth 40.5 pts....add Reids 1 pt......and we total only 41.5 pts for the season ........which is roughly the same as my tongue in cheek table came up with.

So Carl Fletcher (who doesn't look at tables) somehow has got to raise his game on the pitch as a manager........because if he doesn't we're up the swanee river without a paddle........could you hand me that outboard motor please sensible.........sod the paddle this is getting serious.

I will check my predictions week by week and get pleasure (I hope) from seeing if we are doing better or worse than expected.

With our weekly prediction league we have the bonus of seeing how clubs improve or get worse and so adjust our predictions week by week.
 
It's easy to get into the detailed prediction game,but it is at the stage of the season where promotion teams are fearful of playing the bottom teams because form generally goes out the window when the stakes are so high.Although I am hoping form rings true today,with the Gulls playing Bradford at Plainmoor,unfortunately won't be cheering them on,due to the dreaded flu.
 
Just because I don't do the "where will we finish" game does not mean I'm moaning plymborn. I put absolutely no store by the laws of averages thing of what we or anyone else has done before today. The reality will be that some team will defy all the odds and do something completely different. It happens every season. Somebody drops like a stone and somebody rises like a phoenix. Because of what has happened in the last few seasons, the thinking is of course we will be the stone and that is understandable to some extent but it doesn't have to be. We must be due some sort of luck somewhere. It's the half empty half full thing with me.
 
Think you and me Sensible may have read it correctly today,I did quietly suspect we could snatch a 1-0 win today-but not 4-0 and as for the Gulls they obviously did'nt have me cheering them on-those bloody relegation teams are just so unpredictable.
 
That's OK sensible......3 pts to the good great.........lets just hope they don't lose when we all expect them to win.

It seems Cole picked up an injury during the week........it didn't matter in the end.......but it is a bit of a gamble playing without a substitute goalkeeper on the bench.......I wonder who would of gone in goal if needed ?
 
They weren't needed so worry over in goal. That is my very point plymborn. We could just as easily lose one we are expected to get points out of as could any of the teams around us. Projecting results for the rest of the season is a mugs game really and should not be taken seriously ever. Argyle just proved the point nicely today.
 
It's a bit of fun sensible..........some you win some you lose..........just stop being such a sad old spoilsport........you did quite well predicting today......left Mrs LaLa holding the league up.......go on have a little smile you old devil......you know you want to.
 
I'm where I should be plymborn. Sandwiched between the Plymouth belles...................that's more than a smile on my face.:1980_boogie_down:
 
shrews going for the play offs, no my friend we would like to go up as champions. brilliant result for argyle, keep it up. oxford are doing their best to free up 7th place. best of luck argyle
 
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