1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Gillingham' started by alwaysright, Mar 13, 2020.

  1. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    #21
    brb likes this.
  2. grumpygit

    grumpygit les misérable

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2011
    Messages:
    3,628
    Likes Received:
    1,289
    #22
    Resurgam, alwaysright and brb like this.
  3. itstimupnorth

    itstimupnorth Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2011
    Messages:
    1,373
    Likes Received:
    518
    Right. I'll try to balance this and not sound too extreme, but given a long time to think these days, I have given no small amount of thought to what many might think to be the unthinkable.

    The first world is up s**t creek without a paddle at the moment. And you can be sure that when Covid-19 eventually gets established in countries with less well developed healthcare systems and social support mechanisms it'll only get worse. I was chatting last night to an old school friend of mine in South Africa - a country supposedly in lockdown - who commented on a news item from one of the townships where a resident was interviewed about the situation. Among the instructions that have been given is of course that people should wash their hands more frequently. The guy commented that he shared his residence (undoubtedly a shack) with several of his siblings and their families, and they all go out each day to work to try to bring in sufficient money to feed their families in the evening, and questioned what was the use of soap - 'we can't eat soap'. That is the level of day to day survival that millions face.

    In such countries the problem has hardly even got started yet, and they certainly don't have the resources that are available to the first world.

    I question what is the endgame, the exit strategy, for this problem on a global scale? At the moment the first world is making every effort to try to ensure that its healthcare systems are not overrun. This means preventing people getting infected by the Covid-19 virus. But there are no signs that the virus is actually going to die out – its ability to transfer from host to host is much more effective that previous coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS – and who knows whether it might mutate into more dangerous strains in the future – something that thankfully did not happen with SARS and MERS, possibly because the infection rate was so low that they were not given the opportunity to do so.

    If you’ve had the virus you could well be immune (at least from this variant), but there is a way to go before that can be known with certainty, and there are those who will be auto-immune, or who have actually had the virus without even knowing. These are people who could once again be contributing to the economy (and to care), but of whom many, or indeed most, are probably sat at home on their backsides like the rest of us. To establish who those are will of course that will require extensive antibody testing, which of course is not yet widely available as priority has been given to viral testing.

    But even when the first ‘wave’ of infections is dealt with, the virus will still be out there, and ready to infect those who are not immune, and from all reliable reports, (i.e. ignoring Trump’s claims – by the way I love his native American moniker : Chief Sitting Bulls**t) a tested and effective vaccine is at least 12 months away, and that will be for the current strain. It is the risk of re-introduction of the virus that China is concerned about at the moment, and as soon as air travel becomes commonplace again, Covid-19 will start spreading again.

    Might we have to accept that Covid-19, or its future variants, will be out there long term. Like other diseases that we have tried, but failed, to eradicate such as dysentery, tuberculosis, dengue fever, zika virus, smallpox, yellow fever and so many others, but which still kill millions of people worldwide every year? Never mind those who die from annual winter diseases such as influenza, which itself is estimated to account for between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths annually. Against only about 52,000 reported deaths from Covid-19 to date.

    So, I have to admit that a part of me actually thinks that Trump’s initial blustering about just letting USA get on with it and ignoring the short term consequences, whilst being undoubtedly based solely on purposes of limiting financial and fiscal consequences, does have an element of sense about it. The problem is, though, that no government that wishes to appear responsible can be seen to throw a significant portion of its citizens under the bus. This of course leads on to many more questions and arguments about the global responsibility of the human race, and our current attitudes towards global care of each other, in order to increase our numbers and further deplete the planet of its resources. The benefit of getting on with life is that more people will become immune more quickly, thus allowing life to return to a new normal sooner rather than later. The downside is of course that the death toll will be reached sooner rather than later, but I question whether the total number of deaths will be significantly different under either scenario, and indeed whether history will show that the eventual number of deaths will be be considered to be significant by comparison to other global events and disasters over the ages.
     
    #23
    Gil Lingam and alwaysright like this.
  4. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    Thank you, Tim -- and I agree with every word.
    You mention other other countries where the spread of the virus has yet to fully impact. I hear, yesterday, that Coronavirus has reached Mumbai in India - a city where one Million people live in a one square mile tiny area- all living in the shacks you mentioned................ the consequences are mindblowing -- and if these people don't die from the disease, they'll starve to death....................long before any of us run out of toilet paper.
     
    #24
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  5. brb

    brb CR250

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2013
    Messages:
    64,037
    Likes Received:
    60,071
    I'll just leave this here...

     
    #25
    alwaysright likes this.
  6. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    Let the footballers have 100% of their money - it makes perfect sense !

    .................. have I gone mad ? - No -- let me explain.......... and I too almost spat out my tea as I saw the headline in the story !

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52168692

    From a viewpoint ONLY concerned with the collection of revenue for the taxman, it is NOT possible to argue with the fact that if anyone earns less in wages, then they will pay less in income tax - and the Government will have less money for the NHS, or other critical services ..... or to simply hide it away and let it rot !

    .......... So - it follows that if footballers are to take a 30% drop in wages, their tax liability will decrease - meaning less money in tax etc etc...... so - what is the answer ?

    During this Coronavirus disaster, my family and I have prioritised our resources - and tried to be as selfless as possible. We have dipped into savings and been able to significantly increase our usual donations to charities.
    'Most' PL Footballers are in a fairly unique position where they literally have money they can use as toilet paper. Their savings should be significantly greater than any of their fans............ Let them keep 100% of their salary - BUT - if they truly want to help - there is nothing stopping them from giving back the cash to their Club -- or to make a donation directly to the NHS or any charity etc................ It is a win-win situation for the taxman and the NHS --- the only 'losers' are the players (( who can make sacrifices easier than you and me )), AND their Club --- because --- even the PL won't be able to give the prima donnas 100% indefinitely.
     
    #26
  7. itstimupnorth

    itstimupnorth Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2011
    Messages:
    1,373
    Likes Received:
    518
    I found the following article published online at Bloomberg today.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...w-does-the-coronavirus-pandemic-end-quicktake

    In case it won't load without a subscription, so just in case I've copied the text below. Apologies for the length, but there are some interesting thoughts, and most of those will be better researched and presented than my own effort above.

    "With confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally exceeding 1 million and more countries going into lockdown to slow the pandemic, the emerging question is: “When will this all end?” The answer depends in large part on uncertainties about the novel coronavirus that causes the disease, including whether you can get it more than once and how quickly the world’s scientists might produce a vaccine. The cost and benefits of a prolonged shutdown and what different countries can afford, from both an economic and political standpoint, are factors, too.

    1. So how does this end?

    There’s a consensus that the pandemic will only end with the establishment of so-called herd immunity. That occurs when enough people in a community are protected from a pathogen that it can’t take hold and dies out. There are two paths to that outcome. One is immunization. Researchers would have to develop a vaccine that proves safe and effective against the coronavirus, and health authorities would have to get it to a sufficient number of people. The second path to herd immunity is grimmer: It can also come about after a large portion of a community has been infected with a pathogen and develops resistance to it that way.

    2. How do we manage until then?

    For many countries, the strategy is to lock down movement to dramatically slow the spread, closing businesses and schools, banning gatherings and keeping people at home. The idea is to prevent a huge burst of infections that overwhelms the medical system, causing excessive deaths as care is rationed. “Flattening the curve” staggers cases over a longer period of time and buys authorities and health-care providers time to mobilize -- to build capacity for testing, for tracking down contacts of those who are infected, and for treating the sick, by expanding hospital facilities, including ventilators and intensive-care units.

    3. When can restrictions loosen?

    The public shouldn’t expect life to return to normal quickly. Lifting restrictions too early risks inviting a new spike. Authorities in China began to re-open the city of Wuhan, where the pandemic began, two months after it was sealed off from the world, when transmission had virtually halted. But China’s measures were stricter than anywhere else so far, and at least one county has gone back to a lockdown. England’s deputy chief medical officer, Jenny Harries, said lockdown measures there need to last two, three or, ideally, up to six months. Annelies Wilder-Smith, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, recommends restrictions stay in place until daily cases drop consistently over at least two weeks.

    4. Then what?

    A road map authored by a group of U.S. health specialists including former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb calls for an intermediate stage in which schools and businesses would reopen but gatherings would still be limited. People would continue to be encouraged to keep at a distance from one another, and those at high risk would be advised to limit their time in public. If cases begin to rise again, restrictions would be tightened. Their report, published by the pro-business American Enterprise Institute, is arguably more optimistic than the future envisioned by researchers at Imperial College London. Their models suggest that for at least two-thirds of the time until herd immunity is established, all households would need to reduce contact with schools, workplaces or the public by 75%. In any case, the widespread availability of testing is important in this stage. At the heart of the U.S. plan: at least 750,000 tests per week.

    5. Why is testing so important?

    This virus is wreaking so much havoc, not because it’s especially lethal, but because it’s insidious; many who are infected are well enough to go about their daily business, unwittingly spreading it to others. That makes it vital to test for infection widely in the population, and to test everyone with symptoms. That way, those who are infectious can be put in isolation and everyone they’ve had close contact with while contagious can be tracked down, tested and if necessary isolated as well, limiting the spread in the community. Another kind of test looks for antibodies to see who has already beaten the virus and is thus unlikely to be re-infected, at least for a time. Once widely available, such tests might enable people who test positive for antibodies to move about more freely.

    6. Why does where you are matter?

    Authoritarian countries such as China can impose stricter controls on movement and more intrusive means of surveillance, such as house-to-house fever checks, tracing and enforcement of quarantines, and are less vulnerable to pressure from businesses and popular opinion. That gives them powerful tools to keep the virus in check, so long as they are vigilant against imported cases. That’s a more difficult proposition for other nations. The poorest countries can less easily afford the economic losses caused by prolonged restrictions, and often don’t have the health infrastructure for extensive surveillance.

    7. How long will a vaccine take?

    Dozens of companies and universities around the world are working on it, but there’s no guarantee they will prevail. Vaccine development normally is a long and complex process that includes years of testing to ensure shots are safe and effective. In the coronavirus fight, some of the players aim to deliver a vaccine in 12 to 18 months, an extraordinarily ambitious goal. As well as using tried-and-true approaches, scientists are relying on new technologies, like those that add viral genetic material to human cells, inducing them to make proteins that spur an immune response. Some vaccine specialists believe governments, citizens and investors should temper their optimism. It’s not clear if the methods will work, that the timelines will be met or that companies will be able to manufacture enough shots.

    8. What about the second path to herd immunity?

    First, it would occur only if recovering from an infection leaves people with lasting immunity. It’s not yet known if that’s the case with the novel coronavirus. The portion of a population that would have to be exposed to the virus to establish herd immunity is also unknown. Generally, it’s high, for example 75% for diphtheria and 91% for measles. Patrick Vallance, the U.K. government’s chief scientific adviser, estimated the figure at 60% in February. How long it would take to reach the necessary threshold would depend on measures governments impose in response to the pandemic. Without tight restrictions, it would be faster yet come at a steep cost in illness and deaths as health systems would be overburdened. Some research assumes the actual number of infections is much higher than the confirmed cases. If that’s true, countries are closer to herd immunity than we know.

    9. Are there other variables?

    We could get lucky, and the virus could fade with the onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, where most cases are, just like outbreaks of influenza subside with seasonal changes. But it remains unknown whether warmer weather will play a role. Even if the outbreak wanes, it could return in the fall. Some are pinning their hopes on an ultra-effective therapy or a cure."
     
    #27
  8. The Gills PegLeg

    The Gills PegLeg Up yer Harris

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,584
    Likes Received:
    1,346
    As someone who had it. My advice is to not get it. It isn't pleasant. <ok>
     
    #28
  9. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    What blood group are you - can I have some ?
    ...... joking apart - great to know you've beaten it.
     
    #29
    The Gills PegLeg likes this.
  10. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    I can't wait for it to come to the cinema !.................................. any time is '' too soon ''
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52232382

    ........ mind you --- and don't get me wrong - I have the utmost admiration for our NHS staff - but,

    Last night, I showed my appreciation by clapping outside my front door ( fewer people than last week ). When I went back into my lounge, Mrs Alwaysright** pointed to the television.

    The TV was showing reports from around the country - outside various hospitals - showing NHS staff joining in with the applause ----- it also showed - in most of the reports, that the staff were practically joined at the hip ! There were numerous small groups of people who were closer to each other than Mrs A and me in our 'isolation.'
    I understand that they have an incredibly difficult job - and probably want to hug their colleagues etc -- but -- we're all missing that -- yesterday was the birthday of a junior member of my family. It was torture not to be able to give a kiss and a hug ***.

    Just for ONCE in my life i hate to criticise - but EVERYONE needs to keep their distance. We understand that we can't show the physical acts of love - if we are sensible, maybe we can have the chance to choke each other in some sort of 'bear hug' in the near future.

    ** I use Capitals for 'her' - because she is more alwaysright than me............ apparently.
    *** Mrs A baked a cake - and during our skype, we went through the ritual of blowing out the candles ..... and the upside is that I get more cake to eat.
     
    #30

  11. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    R.I.P, Steve
    My friend, Steve from Southend has sadly become one of the statistics of Covid 19.
    I would like to extend my condolences to his family and friends. I don't have the words that can possibly be of comfort in their loss ( he has young family ).He was a good man. He gave me, and my sons, great hospitality ( in a corporate box ), when Gills played at Southend. He also did his bit to support local charities.
    R.I.P.<peacedove> God Bless
     
    #31
    The Gills PegLeg and brb like this.
  12. brb

    brb CR250

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2013
    Messages:
    64,037
    Likes Received:
    60,071
    I remember you talking of your friend in the past, sorry to read this mate.
     
    #32
    itstimupnorth and alwaysright like this.
  13. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    If Covid 19 doesn't kill you...............

    I have often talked about 'TheLaw', closely followed by adjectives such as '' ar$e '' It's not that I defy convention - but, ' The Law ' just presents so many opportunities to be ridiculed....... and it hasn't disappointed during the 'lock down.'

    In the USA, they have a different priority when it comes to going out to buy ''essentials.'' They consider it essential for the gun shops to be open. In some states, such as Colorado, certain drugs - like marijuana is legal - and you can still pop out to your local drug seller --- it's The Law !!
     
    #33
  14. itstimupnorth

    itstimupnorth Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2011
    Messages:
    1,373
    Likes Received:
    518

    As someone who has (in the now regrettably distant) past very much enjoyed partaking of the fragrant herb, I think it's perfectly reasonable to allow continued access.

    Strange though, how the two complete opposites of the 1960's USA culture and counter-culture - authoritarianism backed by firearms, both at home and overseas, and getting stoned in the sunshine and protesting authoritarianism backed by firearms, still feature heavily in current USA life..
     
    #34
  15. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    Thanks Tim --- I'm fairly sure that a mix of drugs and firearms will never do anybody any harm...... according to President Trump, the USA has reached the peak of the effects of Coronavirus --- Maybe he thinks that 2000 + deaths a day (with) Covid is cheap compared with the shootings they have.....

    ...... Coronavirus will eventually 'go away' -- sadly, the deaths from guns in the USA won't !
     
    #35
    itstimupnorth likes this.
  16. grumpygit

    grumpygit les misérable

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2011
    Messages:
    3,628
    Likes Received:
    1,289
    I need help.

    When I started school back in the 1950's, I was taught that 1 + 1 = 2......2 + 2 = 4...... 4 + 4 = 8.
    When did it become the normal for 2 + 2 = 3 or 4 + 4 =5?????
    It seems that the numbers dying with covid 19, depends on how you add the numbers up.
     
    #36
    alwaysright and brb like this.
  17. brb

    brb CR250

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2013
    Messages:
    64,037
    Likes Received:
    60,071
    and don't forget the bog roll!

    please log in to view this image
     
    #37
  18. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    grumpygit
    Whilst I appreciate the gravity of the 'situation', it is becoming increasingly clear (( from what the politicians and scientists say -- and how they give a different interpretation of the figures )), that some of the figures that the politicians would like us to believe, are not deaths 'because of' Covid19, but deaths 'with' Covid 19 possibly*** in the system of the deceased.---- and haven't the scientists said that we all have some elements of 4 strains of Coronavirus in our bodies.

    I would like to see the politicians (( just for once )), be totally truthful. The death toll is grim enough -- without the figures being inflated - as the only option to scare us to death - to stay indoors. If anyone hasn't got that message by now, then society will just have to accept that some people won't do what's good for their health.

    Forgive me for being cynical of the agenda of Government , why does it even mention an exit strategy regarding the ending of lockdown -- when the death toll is still peaking --- and is it acceptable to mention any relaxing of 'restrictions' all the time we're still having hundreds of deaths -- The toll will only gradually decrease. It will take a very long............ so the answer to my question is --

    The furlough money is causing an economic disaster - for which our great grandchildren will have to pay more in taxes - AND - the money will run out in the 3 month period originally mentioned --- so come 1st June (ish), the Government may be forced to let everything go back to 'normal' - whilst many will still be dropping like flies.

    *** the word was used by the Chief Medical Officer
     
    #38
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020
  19. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    Quarantine
    A local farmer told me that in the last two months over 31,000 of his sheep have died after being infected with a devastating disease - primarily brought in by visitors rambling across his land through an open gate. The neighbouring farmers have long since closed the gates giving access onto their land.
    The shepherd, has continued to find hundreds of dead sheep on a daily basis. He has now thought that it might be a good idea to lock his gate - and only allow visitors to his farm after they can show that they have not brought in the disease...........................
    .......... this story is the same for the stables next to the sheep farm !
    ....... and if you think that this is a case of a lack of common sense - just wait for my mobile phone repair saga (( ARGRS thread next week ))
     
    #39
  20. alwaysright

    alwaysright @ Very Angry Camel

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2011
    Messages:
    8,992
    Likes Received:
    2,752
    Biosecurity !
    I hear that the subject is being considered - for when football returns.
    I take this to mean something to do with what practical measures can be taken by Clubs, to try to prevent the spread of any infection.

    Does this mean that I reserve the right to object to being subjected to a 'body search' before entering a ground ? I could, just as easily turn out my pockets etc ( from a small 'social-distance ), - to show that I haven't got any flares !!!! (( how do the stewards not detect such objects ? )).
    I appreciate that I may be refused entry into a ground if I don't allow the stewards to conduct their pointless 'pat down.' ----- but --
    my contention is that the issue of ''searches'' by the Hi Viz chaps, will be the easiest way to cross-contaminate THOUSANDS of people at each venue... You don't get that level of 'intimacy' at airports.

    I certainly won't be happy to allow myself to be 'potentially' infected - perhaps my 'self-disclosure' suggestion may be acceptable ---- anyone else not relishing the idea of being searched ?
     
    #40

Share This Page