Coronavirus: Please use this thread for all COVID19 talk!

We already have a variant that hits the vaccinated; it just doesn't tend to cause severe enough illness to require hospitalization.

Opening up is inevitable, but it's going to be with bated breath rather than real celebration. The good news is that the substantial increase in cases in the UK hasn't had a commensurate increase in deaths. If that's still the case come opening day, we're probably in good shape...it means that the unvaccinated will probably get sick and die in unsettling numbers, but at this point (with the exception of those that cannot be vaccinated for health reasons) that's really no fault but their own. Given that we're at the stage where anyone can book an appointment with ease if they desire, it's difficult to delay opening too much simply because most are unvaccinated by choice, and nothing seems capable of convincing them otherwise.

But yeah, it's a massive risk. If a variant develops that results in vaccinated people getting gravely sick or dying in substantial numbers -- and that's hardly unthinkable -- then we're ****ed, because we're already seeing large numbers of people getting reinfected with new variants, and past infection does not seem to limit the severity of future infection.

So please, for ****'s sake, just get vaccinated people. It's the only way this **** ends.

 

I should have said hit hard I'll edit to include

 

Edit
"young or the vaccinated hard appears".

 

I felt that the announcements yesterday seemed totally out of kilter with the volume of new Covid cases reported and indeed the general trend. There was an excellent interview on Radio Four's "PM" with a lady with represented the hospitality industry who, when pushed by Evan Davies, could not describe how she envisaged protecting her staff in the restaurant she ran should the customers refuse to wear masks. I think that the overwhelming impression I was left with is that a great many employers in these circumstances will have no interest in protecting their staff as all they are interested in doing is chasing customers.

What is concerning is that there is fatigue with continual restrictions and lockdowns yet no one seems to come up with any alternative solutions to prevent the spread of the virus. There is almost an acceptance of the risk in many quarters and I feel that the rush to open society is largely being promoted by people who fail to see that the issue with the vaccination is that it does not prevent transmission. I am glad that some of the things I had booked in the spring such as going to Lords and The Globe are now possible yet wonder if they would have been safer had we persisted with more stringent measures throughout April /May/ June. I think many people would have accepted the logic back then that a cautious opening up of society was sensible . My opinion is that yesterday's decision was totally wrong given the scale of infections and that the real issue is that the relaxation of these measures will afford the virus to mutant into something far more sinister in the winter.

Some of Boris's comments were also extremely careless and i am disappointed that they have not been scrutinised further. I do not believe that a "now or never" scenario is as binary as was suggested and believe that some form of measures should actually be in place until Spring 2022. (For example, compulsory wearing of face masks.) I also feel that there is a massive about of negligence in referring to "Freedom Day" as this is something which is no longer possible and we must find new ways of living with the virus. "Freedom Day" is a fallacy and not helped by the less reputable papers having headlines which make this seem like a genuine possibility.

The other issue I feel has been over-looked is that all the modelling in Feb / March suggested a resurgence in Covid in July / August. This has been predicted for ages and even recognised by the government. Having arrived at this point, I find it crazy that we are not tightening up instead. What is being ignored is how irresponsible this is on the part of the UK. We have already seen the Kent and Indian variants infect Europe via the UK and I fear that we will ultimately allow a new strain to develop by relaxing the restrictions too soon and that this will have even more dire consequences for our neighbours. Until the virus is largely eradicated across the globe, I do not believe we are entitled to kid ourselves that restrictions can be lifted.

 

I do disagree with a lot of this Ian.

Those that are double jabbed, have a 90% or slightly less chance of catching the disease. This means that of all over 50s (99% of chance of hospitalisations) only one 10 of them have a chance of ending in hospital.

We have to open up eventually. I am in the lucky position of being a homeworker (for 6 years) and my job is not affected by COVID at all. But I can see the need to reopen and live with it. I feel uncomfortable personally in public with no masks, but we have to get on with life IMO. We can't live in fear for the next few years otherwise there will be no economy left.

This isn't political to me - I have my views on Boris & co, but we have to open up and get on with it. Eighteen months later, for our sanity we need to move on. IMO of course.

 

I'll still likely wear a mask in most crowded places for some time, even when the mask mandate is lifted, because I still know people who -- while vaccinated -- have significant immune issues that mean that the vaccine could be much less effective for them, including my mother. And I hope that people who would prefer to do so will continue to wear masks voluntarily, because it's still a net benefit societally. If wearing a mask doesn't bother you, keep doing it!

But the rate of vaccination in the UK is slowing at this point; it's still a good level overall, and increasing, but where the marginal benefit of maintaining restrictions for a few weeks was quite strong when getting the vax rates from a quarter to a half of the population fully vaccinated, it's quite a bit lower if another month only increases that by 5% or something. Also, it's pretty grim, but the one thing that might prompt those on the fence about getting vaccinated is seeing the adverse outcomes of those who don't get vaccinated once things open. It's crazy seeing the differential results in the US: the places where vax rates are very high are getting to be quite normal, whereas the places where vax rates have lagged badly are seeing their hospitals run out of ventilators.

 

100% this.

 

No. 7

Thanks for your reply. I can understand your side of the argument yet the logic for maintaining restrictions seems eminently sensible to me. The issue of transmission has not been solved by the vaccine and as long as the virus remains at large amongst a significant proportion of the population, it will mutate. We have no way of knowing whether the mutation will become more or less serious but evolution usually entails some sort of benefit and it is very likely that a new variant may resist the vaccine. I believe that the risk of mutation will only be resolved by minimising transmission and the plans the government published seem unlikely to achieve this. The measures introduced by the government so far to restrict transmission have shown how badly this policy has worked.

The issue which is over-looked is that this virus is in it's infancy. We do not know the long-term effects of Long-Covid and there is a now a genuine risk to children. I understand that the statistics are suggestive that the current infections appear to be for younger people and that the health consequences at this point in time are not as serious as in the spring of 2020 or during the last winter. The truth is that we only have about 15 months worth of data to understand the impact of Covid and, for the first quarter of this period, the information is probably not very good.

I can work from home when I wish and there are measures to restrict the number of people working in the office when I visit there. However, I think that many employers will not be so scrupulous and the response from the woman representing the hospitality industry on Monday night was eye-opening because clearly this industry, which has ben pushing for the lifting of restrictions, is not at all prepared to deal with the changed circumstances. I will be intrigued to see the impact on transmission when night clubs and pubs fully open. The proposal to open football stadia to full capacities will also be something I would watch with interest. The proposed relaxation of regulations is something that I feel will ultimately prove to be temporary and even assuming that there are no further variants, think that we are set for unprecedented transmission levels. Those people looking for the lifting of restrictions only argument is that hospitalisations and deaths seem proportionally low at this point in time without appreciating that a further mutation has the potential to reconnect their link with infections. In an increasingly small world, the drive to open up society seems extremely risky where the virus is rampant elsewhere. I feel that any easing of even the most simple and practical of measures would be premature before the spring of 2022 at the least. Covid is a similar issue for us in the 21st century as The Black Death was in the 14th century, Anyone who knows their history will appreciate that these outbreaks are not "one off " events. I just feel that people are being too casual about this,

 

The possibility of 2 million cases with 10 million isolating and the disruption that will cause isn't going to help with sanity. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ompts-health-fears?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

 

At the end of the day Ian, it's reached the point where the risks of carrying on with restrictions has outweighed the risks of covid. The vaccines are doing the job of protecting the majority of the population. People have lived with strict limitations for a long time now - I don't think you're considering the impact on people's mental health - I mean you're suggesting waiting until Spring 2022! There would be more suicides then people dying of covid IMO. And the economy would be ruined if we waited until then - unemployment would be sky high and the UK will be plunged even further into debt.

 

Take note of the government's caveat that new restrictions may well be added if the situation calls for it. It'll be an "I told you so" moment. Responsible behaviour and the general public are unlikely bed fellows.

 

In which case I'll ignore them. I'm done with restrictions on my life.

 

Let's hope the legal system doesn't give you a red card.

 

You have had restrictions on your life since you were born. They're called the law, and in most countries the law benefits the population and allows them to live safely. I would have thought as a referee you would understand the point of rules.

 

Aww Chilcs can't we have a bit of.

 

Oh look Mr Pedantic has arrived. You know full well what I meant. I'm 30 years old, I've followed all the rules up to now, we've just got to get on with living normal lives now.

 

So what's normal about 2 million cases with 10 million isolating and the disruption that will cause. The UK may well be the world's variant factory due to the high transmissions. There won't be many countries that don't restrict UK travellers that's not a normal situation.

 

Oh look the responsible public has arrived…

 

Oh