Comparative results with previous seasons

Puts a bit of Pozzo spin on the situation, doesn't it!?

 

To add to the spin we have played 5 of the top 6 and 4 of them at home so we (should) have easier home games to come

 

This season we are 6 points up on our best comparative results.
In the previous three seasons we have had a Christmas/New Year lull. Each season in the next 5 games we have got the following points:
15/16 - 1pt
16/17 - 3pts
17/18 - 3pts
This season our next 5 games are against: West ham (a); Chelsea (h); Newcastle (h); Bournemouth (a); Crystal Palace (a).

 

Still awaiting the Everton result before I provide this weeks tables as we could drop to 8th place.
Meanwhile I have just checked how many points we were above the relegation zone in the previous seasons after 18 matches .
18/19 15pts
17/18 7pts
16/17 8pts
15/16 12pts

This season Burnley, in 18th place, have got to win five more games than us in the next 20 games. So far they have won three.

In 15/16 Crystal Palace were 5th, one point ahead of Man Utd and us. Liverpool were two points behind us in 8th place.

 

So that means the team in 18th place 18/19 12pts 17/18 15pts 16/17 14pts 15/16 17pts and herefore 18/19 could be the lowest pts needed to say up

 

Could be but as the dog fight at the bottom intensifies I suspect that those teams will pick up more points in the second half of the season than in the first half.

 

I've changed the team stats format in an attempt to make it clearer. I can change it back, if you prefer.

 

In each of the previous three seasons we have got 16 more points in the last 16 games.

 

Thanks NZ. So, worst case scenario is we’re surely on for 48 points...

It looks like 16 is the magic number here as so far we have 16 points at home and 16 away and we’ve scored 16 goals at home and 16 away!!

 

If that the case then we get anther 16pts from the next 16 games

 

If form is the guide, we'll get 16 points from 11 games. 48 points with 5 to go. 57 points at season end. Not bad !

 

Of our 16 games 10 of them are against the top 11 (and we are 7th) plus we are away to 5 of the top 6 So if we assume we dont get any points from the top 6 then to get upto 57 we would need 25pts from 30pts so only lose 1 and draw 1 in 10 games big ask

 

If we match 17/18 results above then i think we would get anther 17 pts

home 5 wins 1 draw 2 lose away 0 win 1 draw 6 lose Total =17 more

Now we all know that it will not happen exactly like that all im trying to say is our run in is not easy as the games we have played

 

I think 18-21 points from the remaining fixtures is realistic, if unlikely. 50+ points would be a decent return for the season.

 

OK, how about this. We’ve averaged 1.45 points per game. Write-off the five top 6 games away. I think we can get something against Arsenal at home so multiply the 1.45 by the 11 other games and you get 16 (not 16 again!) to finish on 48.

 

I think we'll get something from two of the big three London sides but little, as usual, from the northern trio. More than two points from those six matches would be a bonus. Doubtless we'll slip up elsewhere...