The Irish 1000 Guineas betting is a bit of a shambles. Love is going to the Oaks next. Millisle surely doesn't run and Tango is as low as 7/1 despite being down to run at Leopardstown tomorrow. Peaceful looks like being Aidan's best shot and Run Wild gave the Montrose Stakes a boost when winning the Pretty Polly but the winner Born With Pride, Alpen Rose and Heart Reef were all complete crap next time out after their runs in the Montrose. I suspect Run Wild floundered on the Heavy ground in the Montrose and performed a lot better back on a fast surface. Peaceful and Alpine Star could both be decent enough and Fancy Blue is an unknown quantity but I thought Albigna would be a shorter price than 7/4 now. There are still squillions of entries for the race but that will be sliced tomorrow. Oddschecker show the Irish 1000 being run on Friday and the 2000 Guineas being on Saturday but as ever they have made an arse of it and it is the other way around. 15 colts left in the 2000 Guineas but Aidan has several and no jockeys named yet, so it seems best to see how many he runs. Siskin is as short as 6/4 but you can get 9/4 with bet365. Going at the Curragh is currently good to firm and that should give Siskin a chance of seeing out the mile. Not so good for Albigna but I am hoping her Group 1 form and a decent effort on fast ground at the Breeders Cup can help her assert over the fillies stepping up in class.
English King;s pedigree deserves inspection. The key feature of his pedigree is his great grand dam Souk. By the sprinter Ahonoora (the best horse trained by Frankie Durr and the sire of Dr Devious) she was a wonderful broodmare getting plenty of foals, the best of which was EK's granddam Puce (by Darshaan) who won over12f although she appeared to stay further. But Puce's half-sister Shouk (by Shirley Heights) turned out to be a more important broodmare. Her best foal was Alexadranova (Sadler's Wells) who won the big 3 Oaks.. Shouk also bred Masterofthehorse and Magical Romance (who won the Cheveley Park). So a nice mixture of speed and stamina., which is so important to have in a Derby winner. What a loss Ahonoora was. From humble beginnings he sired many good horses and in 1988 was purchased by Coolmore. Unfortunately Coolmore sent him to Australia and he died when they sent him to Australia and he had a paddock accident. Unlike 99% of horses he was a descendent of the Godolphin Arabian. He had another good son in Indian Ridge,
I see Racing Post have rated Kamekos win at 122, Timeform have it the 4th best Guineas winner this century, not sure I agree.
Did she ever run at Lingfield? York is nothing like Lingfield. Someone is going round changing the record books in order to get me put away
She ran 4 times: Newmarket 2yo (1st), Newmarket 2yo (3rd to 2 colts), York (1st in Musidora) and Epsom (1st). She then suffered an awful injury when she got free on the gallops, I believe. Don't think Hern thought she was the best filly he trained (that was Sun Princess) but he thought she was outstanding.
Domino Darling entered for the Newbury trial on Saturday, Haggas won it with Sea Of Class a few years ago. Couple of well bred, unexposed fillies in opposition as you would expect. Domino Darling 5/2 fav in the early betting, tempted to take it as Gold Wand runs on Thursday and a good run from her could see Domino Darling under 2/1. Oppenheimer was asked about Frankly Darling on ITV on sunday and was about to give some unsolicited insight on Domino Darling before Ed Chamberlain interrupted him. He says he has no idea who is best, no idea about Tiempo Vuela, no idea about anything if you can believe that but im pretty sure Domino Darling is his number 1 and we will find out on Saturday as she is running against Cabaletta who beat Frankly Darling on debut.
Mogul. Second race where he led throughput at the Curragh on Aug 30 last year. (First race on clip. Final furlong only.)
Mogul 4th race start. G1 Futurity Trophy Stakes Newcastle. (AW) Nov 1. 4th behind Kameko. Held second half furlong out, but dropped to 4th on line.
Still English King for me. But shortened to 9/2 unfortunately. Could shorten more once people realise Kameko is a false favourite
I like English King, but am worried about his greenness against the AOB team who will go in mob handed with rock hardened horses. Not that I'm suggesting AOB has the race won already. What are they going to do with Wichita? Irish Guineas? The more I look at the Derby, the more confused I get. I wouldn't be surprised if something at a juicy price popped up.
The 5/2 Domino Darling didnt last long and too short now to back antepost. Not my type of price and might end up just watching and hoping she wins, 2/1 on the day I will consider it. I have just backed Oriental Mystique 10/1 in the race as shes on my list and her form just got a nice boost with Declared Interest bolting up in a competitive looking handicap at Chelmsford. Shes by Kingman out of Madame Chiang who won the Musidora for Simcock a few years ago and I really liked that Kempton maiden she won, multiple promising types including Majestic Noor who runs tomorrow against Lady G form Domino Darlings maiden so could get a bit of line between them. French Polish was another filly I liked from the Kempton race, ran down the field for Haggas but I liked her.
The Irish 2000 Guineas is taking shape. There are 11 runners and Wichita is NOT turned out six days after finishing runner up at Newmarket. The St James Palace would surely offer more recovery time for the horse Jason Weaver kept calling Wicheetah last week. He wasn't as fast as the African Cat and Weaver has clearly never been to Kansas nor listened to the Glen Campbell song Wicheetah Lineman (sic) Siskin is favourite for Friday's Irish 2000 Guineas and Aidan launches SIX colts to try to thwart the unbeaten Ger Lyons colt. The stable are 1/15 at the moment and the son of First Defence could have been doing with his trainer in a little bit better form in order to inspire confidence. The most obvious issue is that Siskin only raced at 6F last year and his performance on the last occasion was not very exciting on a soft surface with less than a length to spare over Monarch Of Egypt, whom he had beaten more easily earlier on better ground. It is perhaps ominous that Monarch Of Egypt looks likely to be used as a pacemaker here for Aidan's leading hopes. Seamie Heffernam rides Lope Y Fernandez and he had looked promising before bumping into Pinatubo at Royal Ascot. I get mixed messages from the son f Lope De Vega and I did see him quoted for the Commonwealth Cup earlier this year. Is he considered the first string here with Seamie on board? 4/1 with Paddy Power but you can get 6/1 with Ladbroke. Armory was 12/1 early doors for this race and he was the shortest of Aidan's at 4/1 recently. With Wayne Lordan booked to ride he seems weak in places now and is 9/2 in red on some boards. Armory had looked good but he was woeful behind Alson on his final start of the season. Better judged on a decent third to Victor Ludorum before that, I still can't get a weak looking win in the Group 2 Futurity out of my mind. Jockey bookings would tend to suggest he is not the first string but it can't have been easy to side with one in particular when a *** paper would probably cover a bunch I felt were slightly below Group 1 class last year. Vatican City was the subject of an early market move after rumours circulated that he "Won" a private gallop at Ballydoyle. Hard to know the truth of that, or the potential value of it. I thought he was a colt with potential big improvement this year but this comes soon enough for him and you couldn't be a player based on a maiden win at 1/2 Fav in a race where only the runner up has won since. He's a big lay for me at any odds between the varied 4/1 right up to 8/1. I think he should be nearer 16/1. Royal Lytham is hard to assess. The colt scrambled home in the July Stakes where Mark Johnston's talking and stopwatch horse Visinari failed at odds of 4/6. Guildsman was also disappointing in that race and Royal Lytham has since been behind Siskin, albeit not beaten far, and the big worry would be that he was behind Monarch Of Egypt, a colt who showed early promise but seemed to stall after an injury. Yet to race beyond 6F Royal Lytham has more questions than answers for me and sire Gleneagles has been underwhelming for me, evinced by Royal Lytham and Royal Dornoch being his best progeny by some way so far. Aidan's other two are probably here as pace providers to ensure that Siskin gets thoroughly tested from a stamina perspective and Sinawann is seen as the leading challenger outside of the favourite and Aidan's leading contenders. The Kingman colt was runner up to Mogul in a Group 2 race over a mile but I am not sure he has the pace to match the fastest of these and the overall form of the race Mogul won looks a bit mediocre. I can't get away from the fact that Lope Y Fernandez looked better at 6F than 7F last season. He was not disgraced behind Pinatubo at Royal Ascot but was well slaughtered by the same colt at Goodwood. Royal Lytham also shaped like a sprinter last season. Armory has placed form in Group 1 company at a mile and you can ignore his final race of the season. He did seem a bit exposed last season but with some of these being dubious at a mile and the colt being a son of Galileo he makes most appeal in an Irish Guineas where anything over 110 may well be good enough to win the mediocre looking Classic. Armory 9/2 at twice the odds of Siskin seemed better value.
The Irish 1000 Guineas is down to a field of 15 runners but there are no hopers galore in the field. Brook On Fifth was 12th of 15 in the trial on Tuesday, so I don't see the point of running the 93 rated filly again in the Classic itself. Joseph O'Brien is totally out of form on 0/26 this past fortnight and this looks a head up the ass decision to me. Blatant pacemaking for his father's contenders would be the only logical conclusion one could draw. With six of the field priced 50/1 upwards, the race looks quantity over quality and the most notable absentee in Albigna's stable companion Alpine Star. She had been as low as 3/1 a couple of days ago but it seemed significant that she was double that price in places. We now know why that was. In her absence Aidan's Peaceful is second favourite and her stablemate So Wonderful is also prominent in the betting. So Wonderful was 3rd to Love in the Moyglare but that was her 8th run of last season and she remains a maiden despite her good placed efforts in Group races. So Wonderful has actually only run twice in Maiden races but it is still a stretch to see her shedding her Maiden status in a Group 1 contest. This looks a good opportunity for Albigna to land a Classic and one of her main threats in the betting market is Donnacha O'Brien's Fancy Blue. Unbeaten but at a good bit lower level, Fancy Blue's narrow win from A New Dawn did not get much encouragement from that filly's effort in the trial on Tuesday and I think the Deep Impact filly has a stone to find with Albigna. I had a reasonable bet on Albigna at 2/1 and the plan has worked out in terms of expecting that Love Na Millisle would not be running. The fact that Alpine Star is not in the field is a bonus and I am very hopeful going into the race. The trouble with horse racing is that you can plan ahead, have the race pan out the way you expected but then still end up with a loser for one reason or another. In this case the faster ground might not be ideal but Albigna is top rated here and the next best So Wonderful is a Maiden after 8 starts. Fingers crossed that it pans out for once.
