Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

He didn't say which Derby

 

Ulster Derby Ron?

 

Fabre horses coming into form, last 4 runers have won.

 

Race of legends
2019 Dadoozart
2018 Change Of Velocity
2017 Clongowes
2016 Stellar Mass

 

Taken from another forum;

Apparently ballydoyle had a derby trial and Guineas trial last week behind closed doors. Mythical ran very well in the derby trial. He’s 40/1 for the derby. Vatican City who’s have a half brother to gleneagles won their Guineas trial. He’s 20/1 for the Irish 2000 Guineas. Judging by Betfair he isn’t going to the Newmarket version.

 

Have seen this stated before QM, but what's the evidence for it? Sounds very dubious to me

 

The 20's gone on Vatican city into 14 now and as low as 8's

 

Anybody got any thoughts on king of change for the Queen Anne at Ascot

 

Hope you are right about Vatican City because he is one of my dark horses for the season. I thought he could be a big improver this year.

 

The Irish 2000 Guineas betting looks very confused. As already mentioned, Vatican City is as low as 8/1 but available at 14/1. Royal Lytham is 16/1 with William Hill but SkyBet only go 5/1, which is a huge variation. Arizona is 10/1 with Paddy Power but William Hill only offer 3/1, which seems incredibly tight and I can only assume that the firm feel the stable may chicken out of taking on Pinatubo at Newmarket despite the glowing report given by jockey Ryan Moore about Arizona's prospects at Newmarket.

I want to take the Favourite Siskin on because I didn't feel he beat strong horses last season and he has to prove himself beyond 6F. He was given an identical 115 rating for his final race of the season but I thought it was a lesser performance because the runner-up Monarch Of Egypt got closer to him than on their previous start. As ever, the assessor seems to raise the rating of the runner up and Monarch Of Egypt went up six pounds but he gave no indication that it was warranted in two subsequent runs. In their first clash the race time was 1.62 slow on good ground but the second race was 5.42 slow on soft ground, perhaps indicating that Siskin was less suited by a more testing surface. The other nag for me is that Royal Lytham was not far off Siskin in that Group 1 Phoenix Stakes on soft ground and the jockey reported that Royal Lytham's saddle slipped as they left the stalls.

As low as 2/1 I can't have Siskin and there have been murmurs about a plan B in the sprint division. The trouble is that the picture is so confused that you may pick one of Aidan's against him and then find that he doesn't line up.

 

What is your outlook on the Irish 1000 Guinea's if you don't mind me asking

 

You're right to look for evidence, Bustino, but my guess is that you're not likely to find it. I remember Phil Bull saying about 50 years ago that there was nothing in print worth reading about breeding and that (I paraphrase) 'the whole topic was a universe of fantasy'. Well, Phil could be wrong (about quite a lot of things, including his rather endearing conviction that Princess Margaret lusted after him), and fifty years is a long time, during which you might expect some sort of scientific progress in the whole field.

The science of genetic testing might bear some fruit eventually, and I gather that Jim Bolger is a convert. I won't say too much about that, beyond my enduring belief that Jim is capable of believing fifty impossible things before breakfast. My lame conclusion is that you put the best to the best, and hope for the best, but it certainly doesn't always work.

I see why QM might take the broad view that stamina comes from the damside, because recent statistics tend to support that. But my guess is that the explanation is commercial rather than genetic. Putting it at its simplest, the number of staying sires has declined since about 2000 because the big breeders want 8f and 10f speed to get the big bucks from the big owners and, as a result, the female influence has begun to loom larger because the stamina has to come from somewhere. Once the Galileo blood wears thin, the trend will become even more marked.

Let me say at once that I'm no sort of expert here, and I'm only offering a view. My own betting arena is waaaaay below classic level (Cl.5 and Cl.6 sprints at lowlife tracks). But check it out at the human level; the House of Windsor works hard on its breeding, and only the filly (Anne) has ever shown any sign of class and stamina.

 

Looking at the French 2000 Guineas the initial entry of 126 has been whittled down to just 11 potential runners. No surprise that Earthlight has been taken out and I doubt we will see him anytime soon.

Victor Ludorum is a general 9/4 Favourite for the race with Ecrivain 3/1 next best. A bit surprising to me to see that latter horse at 14/1 for the French Derby because a win in the shorter Classic will see him as a warm favourite you would feel. Helter Skelter had no chance from a hold up ride in the trial and I expect better from him and I have to be against The Summit, who seemed to pinch the race last time and his trainer Alex Pantall is 4/70 this past fortnight for an uninspiring 5.71% strike rate. Alson is still in the French Guineas but he lacks a run this season and looks a bit tight at 6/1. There is also a nag that Alson my still be aimed at Newmarket because his trainer was mulling that option.

The French 1000 Guineas sees 16 fillies left in from the original 152 entries. Tropbeau is favourite and the highest rated filly in the race. Given that Fabre was generally out of sorts when she won you could expect that she may come forward from that and be hard to beat. She did not win the trial by far but seemed to prove her stamina that day and I reckon 9/4 with Ladbrokes is a fair price for filly with form in the book. Simeen is as low as 3/1 and while several have said she was cosier than the short neck comeback winning margin, she is a fair bit behind Tropbeau on official French ratings and that look a weak race she won, with the Fabre filly Bionic Woman clearly below her best effort previously. I have been in Ladbrokes this morning to top up my earlier bets on Tropbeau. As I had suspected, Freddy Head took Khayzaraan out of the race, so I hope nobody backed her ante-post.

Still hopeful of a Victor Ludorum/Tropbeau double but both probably need to come forward from their seasonal debuts, the colt more so than the filly.

 

No problem. I am always willing to reply if I see the query and have time on hand.

I had backed Albigna for the Newmarket Guineas as my main ante-post bet and was disappointed when she was beaten in the Moyglare. She looked much more at home with a test of stamina in the Group 1 mile Boussac and was then totally unsuited by the fast ground at the Breeders Cup where she shaped like the most talented filly in the race but track and conditions there suit 6F horses in mile races. That was the owner's personal project rather than the trainer and I prefer horses who do not visit the USA as 2YOs.

Albigna was said to have wintered best of Jessica Harrington's fillies but my hopes were quickly dashed when Jessica Harrington declared that Millisle would be her filly for Newmarket based on having previous experience of the track. I don't think Millisle will stay a mile but that's the trainer's decision and my money is lost on that one with Albigna staying at home for the Irish version. 2/1 for the Irish Guineas, I think she will be hard to beat if she has trained on as well as her jockey declared earlier in the year.

I didn't feel last year that Jessica's Alpine Star was as good a prospect as Albigna and she sits joint second favourite with Love for the Irish 1000 Guineas. It seems that Love looks like going to Newmarket and she will have potential as the Moyglare winner from last year representing the master of the Classics Aidan O'Brien. I had a feeling Albigna might reverse form with Love over a mile, particularly on a softer surface but the one factor Love has in her favour is the magic Galileo bloodline and she may well improve this year. Having already fired a few ante-post darts I couldn't play Love for Newmarket in a confused year where she may yet stay at home but she is one of a handful of fillies that may have more basic speed than the favourite Quadrilateral, who sticks in my mind for looking outpaced at one stage in the fillies mile before getting home late.

Back to the Irish 1000 Guineas, if Love does not turn up I do not see a lot to worry Albigna. Some of them have a fair bit of catching up to do on form and Cayenne Pepper was already said to be going for the Irish Oaks as her long term objective, with Harrington emphasising that her future was at longer trips. Fancy Blue also struck me as being one for further and was a dark horse for the Oaks for me but it looks like Donnacha O'Brien is keeping her in Ireland as well.

Overall I decided to back Albigna at 2/1 in the belief that Love and Millisle will go to Newmarket and several of them will not turn up for various reasons. If that happens the current odds suggest Alpine Star and Fancy Blue will be joint second favourites and Albigna might not be much more than an even money shot.

No guarantees in Horse Racing of course but that's my thinking based on the available evidence.

Irish 1000 Guineas Albigna 2/1 for me.

 

I know what you mean about it being dubious because if I could remember back to the dim and distant past in biology lessons (too busy looking at the teacher), we were taught about some guy who proved that animals got a mix of things from both parents. I wonder which of Usain Bolt’s parents ran fast.

It is probably one of those old wive’s tales that has been around forever; and there are plenty of famous examples of it being disproven e.g. Desert Orchid’s dam was a sprinter.

It does generally tend to hold true but the statistics are always skewed by the breeding/racing industry trends. For example, Derby winner Galileo is always considered an influence for stamina because nobody sends sprint mares to him; and his record as a stallion is dominated by milers and middle distance horses. Having him in the dam’s side pedigree is probably looked on as favourably as it was for his father Sadler’s Wells and grandfather Northern Dancer. His dam Arc winner Urban Sea, was an American bred but her most successful offspring were sired my ‘middle distance’ stallions and ran over middle distances.

 

Thanks for sharing I value your opinion would the ground not go against her though , just been out with my dog and the ground is rock hard has been most of the year here in East Yorkshire , I know it's in Ireland and they also water the course but looking at the next week or so not a lot of rain forecast

 

I would prefer some cut in the ground based on her career best being on soft but she did run well enough on Firm ground at Santa Anita, where the track itself wouldn't have suited her. I reckon the USA tracks are generally better suited to greyhound racing. Her first two runs were clearly not far enough for her at 6F but she managed to win them both and I had hoped the step up to 7F in the Moyglare would suit and that if she landed that she would be short enough for the 1000 Guineas, hence a few quid ante-post seemed in order. Maybe the 7F wasn't enough of a test but I still feel she was a bit below par that day.

Albigna has only run at a mile twice, one of which was as fast a surface as a horse is likely to ever face. That means that she is unexposed at the trip and I am trusting that some will drop out to run at Newmarket. Albigna has apparently wintered better than Alpine Star, based on the jockey's input. The promising Fancy Blue has a fair bit to find to reach Albigna's level of form and if things pan out as I expect they may be the main opposition.

I had hoped Albigna would line up at Newmarket but the trainer has decided against it. I think there was also some mention of the trainer being unhappy that crinklies (People over 70 years of age) were not being allowed to attend the racecourse at Newmarket. Poor old Jess is 73 but I am hoping she can still train an Irish 1000 Guineas winner.

 

Couple of anomalies for this year

The first 2 yo race in GB this year is currently scheduled to be a 6f at Kempton.
The first race at Royal Ascot will NOT be the Queen Anne

 

Ground in Ireland will be fast. Gives it good for next few weeks. Little to no rain in last 4 weeks.

 

There is no way the ground anywhere on turf can be softer than good to firm. I expect good ground or softer everywhere.because of watering.