Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

Form in the book prevails with Tropbeau winning, Khayzaraan was all hype really, form was not worth much and she went way too fast in the conditions before going out like a light. Decent run from Dream and Do who looked to be coming to win but didnt see it out as well as the winner. Tropbeau a worthy fav for the Guineas id say but remains to be seen how good the race was, I dont think shed be good enough for the English version.

 

Impressed by Tickled Me Pink. Could be a Prix Diane possible. Wonder if the owner will want to go for the Pouliches?

 

The time was about 2 seconds slower than the fillies race, was a false race and the winner was probably fitter than most, an easy toss for the Guineas imo.

 

I think you'll find she's the Fenian version Tickled Me Green.

 

Yes that's her mum

 

Fabre declared that he wasn't totally disappointed with Victor Ludorum given the ground and that the horse didn't settle as well as hoped for. The French 2000 is still the target and reading between the lines he seemed to suggest that Earthlight may not go for that race. The trainer also said that he feels a little bit further will suit Victor Ludorum and bearing that in mind I decided to leave Ecrivain and have a go at Victor Ludorum at 6/1 for the French Derby in the old logic that you don't become a bad horse after one setback.

 

Victor Ludorum travelled three deep and fought the bit for awhile and picked up nicely when first asked, but then hit a flat spot in the last half furlong. It sort of looked as though he might not have done quite enough work at home. I had the feeling he hit the wall close to home.

 

Full field of jockeys tugging most of the way as the winner makes all

5f in 1.07

almost 4 seconds slower than the Khayzaraan went in the fillies race, the form is worth nothing, Ecrivain would have went close to overcoming the winners soft lead with a clear run, and inexplicable that Victor Lodurm finished empty, whatever he was doing in this race will need to have been a 1 off or you can forget about him this season

 

I notice Al Suhail has been popular as an outsider in the 2000 Guineas betting.

The son of Dubawi out of Shirocco Star was a product of horses rated 128 and 114 on their best RPRs and he is a half brother to Hughie Morrison's Derby runner Telecaster. I felt he moved like a good horse on debut and could not believe that he somehow got run down by Richard Hannon's Al Madhar that day. The Hannon colt has not been seen since that July maiden but Al Suhail was out a month later and fitted with a hood he won a Yarmouth Novice race by four lengths at odds of 1/6 Fav.

Stepped up to Group 3 next time in the Solario at Sandown Al Suhail sat at the back as Full Verse set off at a suicidal pace in front. Favourite Positive seemed to pick up most quickly, while Kameko and Al Suhail took longer to find momentum. I initially thought Positive was going to win decisively but Al Suhail began to look menacing and Kameko started to stay on really strongly. Positive suddenly looked vulnerable but Al Suhail's effort faltered and Kameko became the main danger. I think Kameko was actually in front briefly but Positive found just enough to get up right on the line. Al Suhail actually seemed to close again slightly as the leading two hit the line and that was perhaps a sign of resolution becoming a question mark.

Al Suhail kept to Group 3 company next time when contesting the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket. Roger Varian's Molatham was favourite for the race but perhaps found a mile on soft ground a bit much for him and was well beaten off. In the end it was the Godolphin pair who drew away from those who looked tired on the soft ground and they came clear to the tune of 7 lengths by the time the hit the line after a sustained battle. Military March had been at the head of affairs with Al Suhail held up a bit further back. As the two came through Al Suhail closed and actually headed Military March narrowly but he did not sustain his progress and Miltary March battled back. The two horses got quite close and perhaps it is coincidence but I felt Al Suhail was worried out of it by a more determined horse.

Looking at Al Suhail's dam Shirocco Star we can see that she only won one race from her 13 starts and that win was in a maiden race. She went down by a short head in the Swettenham at Newbury before being a neck second to 20/1 shot Was in the Oaks, a race where The Fugue let me down for quite a decent fourfold on the Epsom card that day. Shirocco Star went on to finish a short neck second in a French Group 2 later in the season and perhaps there might be a suggestion that she would not qualify for the Victoria Cross. Perhaps Al Suhail can be accused of looking to have potentially inherited some of his mother's profile, given that his sole win came in a Novice race where he was massively odds-on.

So what sort of chance does Al Suhail have in the Guineas? He obviously has some talent, given his official rating of 112. Fans of Military March need to be hoping that Al Suhail is a decent horse considering that there is only 1 lb between them on ratings. Looking at the pair, Al Suhail is smaller and more sparely made than Military March, so you might expect that the latter will make more progress with time. You would think Al Suhail would improve based on his breeding, yet he seems a different type completely to half brother Telecaster and it looks like a mile might be plenty for him. There is a slight suspicion that the horse can do better if he has grown up mentally from last year and outside of Pinatubo we are looking at a field full of doubts and lacking really solid claims. You can get 33/1 on Al Suhail with Bet 365 but he is down to 20/1 on quite a few boards now and you would ask why that has happened?

Looking at the others, I don't think Earthlight will run and Siskin has been mentioned as most likely to run in the Irish version. Victor Ludorum is staying in France and Andre Fabre has said that Alson might be the one he sends to Newmarket if all pans out as expected. Military March was confirmed as starting in the Guineas as a stepping stone to the Derby, while Arizona has become Aidan's best backed based on a favourable sound bite from Ryan Moore. Richard Hannon has said not to forget about Threat and the horse was backed after that statement but I think the colt lacked scope and his form tailed off a bit last year. They could all be playing for second place but I stuck a few quid on Al Suhail at 33/1 because I have him rated exactly the same as Arizona and the O'Brien horse is a third of the odds. Arizona went into the Dewhurst rated 20 lbs below Pinatubo on official ratings but ran only 5lbs below him on RPRs on the day. I think raising him from 108 to 116 for that run looks like bull crap.

Al Suhail 33/1 for some interest and fun.

 

We already know Al Suhail is a decent horse, his run in the Solario showed that, but I think we also already know hes not a Guineas winner. Military March had only run in a maiden and was taking on horses with multiple runs and Group race foundations, and he put them well in their place by the end.

Given Bin Suroor comments -

"He’s a big, strong horse – and it was nice the way he finished his race. He’s a horse for next year."

"He's in good form and working well. Physically he looks better than last year. That's the reason he only raced twice and had a gap between races, he was on the weak side. But now he is physically really good and has done well."

Id expect him to have improved more for that experience and the winter than the horses he beat that day. He has been cut for the Guineas recently, into 16s generally, ive backed him at 25s but not really expecting him to win, im big on him for the Derby so I couldn't leave him unbacked for the Guineas. I suppose hes a rock solid place chance and if the favourite bombs then you never know, but it looked to my eye that he was already crying out for a trip last season and hes not a miler in a million years.

Last years Guineas winner Magna Grecia made his 2nd career start in the Autumn Stakes but went on to get top level experience in the Racing Post, and there was no standout superstar either so I think Military March winning is still a bit of a longshot.

 

I'm not an Al Suhail fan. I looked back at the impressions he made on me last year. I noted on his debut that he had a bit of a scratchy action. After the Solario run my view was that the engine is good but there's something wrong with the transmission. It gave the impression that in the finish it was all happening too fast for him. Perhaps it was immaturity and as he grows up he may overcome this, but this sort of thing is likely to be a basic fault. I'd imagine he'd be suited by good or softer going.
Very few horses have perfect actions and one of the problems is that just like humans they rarely have legs of the same length. Apparently Nashwan did and he did have a perfect action. Pictures of him show the amazing extension he had.

 

Well Bet365 did cut Al Suhail in from 33/1 to 25/1 today. I doubt my puny stakes caused that though.

I accept that he is not an attractive looking sort or a good mover but despite those traits he still reached a good enough level last season and on breeding you would think he would improve with age. On paper you might think softer and/or a bit further would help but visually I haven't really seen the evidence to support that.

SkyBet seem to be the only firm across the fact that Earthlight and Siskin are highly unlikely to run, because they have pushed both colts out to 25/1. Bet365 only offer 8/1 and 10/1 for the same pair and that is criminal value ante-post.

No doubt names will drop from the list like diarrhoea in the next couple of weeks and the betting will look a lot different.

 

looks like the market is finally starting to wake up to her, Ladbrokes 20/1 into 12s, top price 16s with bet victor, still looks decent, will be no bigger than half of that on the day if she turns up

 

Looks like the French Guineas may be run at Deauville, probably not a bad thing as Longchamp for me has suffered the same fate as York since the works been done.

 

They have come up with some "Red Zone" bullshit. Racing can continue in the Green Zones apparently but Paris and the surrounding areas are off limits for now. Longchamp, Saint-Cloud and Maisons Laffitte are the biggest tracks affected by this change of heart.

Not surprisingly there was discord:-

A Tuesday evening Tweet from France Galop President Edouard de Rothschild read, “inexplicable and irrational. I will not give up. I am proud of your exemplary behaviour behind closed doors since May 11 and the colossal work provided by our teams for more than two months. Responsive we are and we will be. Long live our races.”

What next? An Amber Zone?

 

Palace Pier ruled out of the Guineas, could be one for the Jersey at Ascot but no betting for that yet.

Arizona now clear 2nd fav at 8/1, they will be hoping he can do a Henrythenavigator from 2 to 3. Henry won the Coventry before getting beat in the Pheonix and Futurity, the latter comfortably by New Approach, but he turned the form around and went on to be a top miler as a 3yo. Could he be yet another classic winner from the BC Juvenile Turf?

My gut feeling early on last year was to take Pinatubo on in the Guineas but its difficult to make a serious case for anything beating him, I dont understand Kinross being the same price as Kameko with some books.

 

A man with backbone

 

I saw that Bustino. What was it in response to? No apologies for the preposition at the end

 

As ever a horse is well supported and then a few days later ruled out of a big race. This time it was Palace Pier.

Coral reported that they had had to cut the Gosden trained runner in to 12/1 following money coming for him and then today the trainer said they will start the horse off at Newcastle and skip the Guineas.

I suppose it is a big ask for anyone to tackle Pinatubo this year and they might all be facing a fool's errand but Gosden's lowest price inmate in the 2000 Guineas is 40/1 and it seems unlikely he would send them if he won't send his potentially best candidate according to the betting.

Gosden seems unlikely to get his 2000 Guineas monkey off his back this year then.

I had an early pop on Palace Pier as he looked a bit special but it's been one of those years where all ante-post punters are going to be doomed by Pinatubo emerging and putting a stranglehold on the race.

Oh well. At least Charlie Appleby has said that his plan is to send Al Suhail to the 2000 Guineas before aiming him at the Derby. Like me he is not sure that the colt will stay but takes hope from the pedigree. Al Suhail is now close to Military March in terms of odds for the 2000 Guineas but despite being nibbled for the Derby himself, he is still available at 4 times the price of Military March for the 12F Classic.

Military March is now vying for favouritism in the Derby and is generally 8/1. I think that's too short and Mogul looks terrible value at 10/1. Waldkonig is a terrible price at 12/1 and knowing Gosden he might decide to send him to a race at Bath instead. Al Aasy looks a grim price at 16/1-20/1 across the boards. Third in a maiden that looks nothing special since, this horse needs to step up from a 77 rated effort on RPR's over 7 furlongs. He needs to improve 3 stone to win a mediocre Derby and face an extra 5 furlongs into the bargain and there is not a lot of stamina on the Dam's side of the Sea The Stars colt.

Overall it looks an uninspiring Derby to be thinking about a bet on at the current available odds.

 

For the Guineas on betfair, MIlitary March is 19.0 and Al Suhail is 34.0 - probably an accurate reflection of their chances.

I thought Military March deserved to be favourite for the Derby last year, he looked the standout candidate and the market is now reflecting that. If he runs top 5 in the Guineas he will probably start under 6/1 for the Derby, if he runs a big race then could be a bit shorter than that.