Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

Was backing Domino Darling regularly at 22/1 for the Oaks, loved her debut and pedigree, beating a well regarded Varian filly with the 2 pulling clear from a field that has produced a couple of future winners. The money was down for Varians and she was given a few cracks in the closing stages but Domino Darling won hands and heels and her pedigree screams middle distance being by Golden Horn and a half sister to a Queens Vase winner. Im not convinced about Quadrilateral staying and Haggas other contender Born With Pride screams mudlark, by Born To Sea out of a Monsun mare, Born To Sea also won a soft ground listed race on debut and his best performance was 2nd to Camelot on bottomless ground in the Irish Derby. I think Domino Darling is a classier type and for me she is the standout candidate for the Oaks, price has shortened a bit but the 14/1 with Hills is well worth taking, ill be backing her again at that price.

 

Been thinking about backing her but you just made my mind up as gosden and O'Brien have been mopping up the race in recent years is there anything else you are sweet on for the flat season

 

My worry with Domino Darling is that the collateral form is very late season fare and not in strong company. Those late November and December races can lack strength of form, given that many fillies will have been put away for the Winter by then.

Wonderful Tonight won an awful looking Maiden at Saint Cloud on Heavy ground over 10F and that is real plodders territory. Her third behind Domino Darling was not embellished by that in my eyes. The 4th in Domino Darling's debut win was Simon Crisford's Make It Rain and she did win a Kempton Maiden next time but it wasn't a good race, with the runner up taking four more goes to get off the mark in a Handicap off 76. I don't see that as good form because something has to win these late season maidens and some of the collateral form is now into March of this year.

Interesting that you mention Born To Sea. I remember his debut win and Matt Chapman creaming his jeans over the performance. He suggested everyone should be out backing Born To Sea for the Guineas and Derby, declaring that the colt was more impressive than Sea The Stars. Sadly the horse never won another race, being pumped next time out at odds on. Camelot was the worst Guineas winner I can recall. He won a very poor Derby and failed to win an awful St Leger. Some people say that a cheat horse in Encke denied Camelot the Triple Crown but I would forever have felt queasy about Camelot sitting alongside Nijinsky in the history books. He wasn't fit to suck the sweat off Nijinsky's testicles.

 

The maiden was late October, 4 days before her sire made his debut, and the form on paper is not that significant to me, im not backing her to win an Oaks based on heavy ground backend maiden form, im backing her as a prospect, on what I think she is, not what I think the horses who didnt get involved in the finish are. The fact that a couple have won is always nice to see, but its not important.

Golden Horn and Storm The Stars were clear of what turned out to be a 60 rated animal in 3rd, but the winner was a Group 1 horse and the runner up was a Group 2 horse.

When I backed Taghrooda for the Oaks, and presumably when you backed her, it wasnt because she beat Casual Smile a neck or that the soon to be rated 65 Tea In Transval was 2.5L back in 3rd and that was Oaks winning form, it was because she was a prospect, bred to come into her own over a trip and she had shown a lot of quality in the race.

Not every maiden is going to turn out like the Frankel vs Nathanial, good horses have to start somewhere, and I think both Domino Darling and Gold Wand are stakes horses.

Youd struggle to find a weaker maiden than the race Waldkonig won yet you have backed him for the Derby, presumably for reasons other than the strength of the horses he beat.

 

Having a look at that Doncaster Fillies maiden, the last time an Oaks winner won it was Moonshell in 1994, Star Of Seville won the French Oaks more recently after winning a division of the 2014 edition. Multiple middle distance and staying Group fillies have won the race in the last decade, and a host of listed class fillies, as far as maidens go its got a pretty solid track record of producing decent types.

2009 - Gertrude Bell (2nd) - G2 winner
2010 - Izzy Top (2nd) - 3rd in the Oaks and multiple G1 winner
2012 - The Lark - G2 Park Hill winner
2014 - Beautiful Romance - Multiple G2 and G3 winner, G1 placed
2014 - Star Of Seville - G1 French Oaks
2017 - Mrs Sippy - G2 winner

The clock also seems to back up that the latest renewal produced an above average winner as shown in this Simon Rowlands article.

Spoiler: Article

Doncaster managed to race last Friday before the elements took their predictable toll. The temptation may be to pay little regard to form achieved on heavy ground, but the same principles of time analysis apply as under more usual conditions: differences in abilities are manifested in times.

There was a noteworthy difference in both overall times and sectionals between the mile races which opened the card, with the nursery won by She’s A Unicorn over 3.0s slower than the Fillies’ Maiden won by Domino Darling 35 minutes later.

That difference cannot be explained away by pace, as the following breakdown of the Total Performance Data sectionals shows

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Domino Darling was faster than She’s A Unicorn in every section bar one (the 6f out to 5f out one, in which she was 0.03s, or about a head, slower), and considerably so in a few of them. Look at those last two sections, in which Domino Darling ran 0.47s and 0.77s – a total of at least six lengths – quicker.

She’s A Unicorn is an ordinary performer, who ran off 74 here, but she carried 6lb less than did Domino Darling, who was making her debut remember, and effectively finished 15 lengths plus behind her.

That is an oddly slow time by the former but almost certainly an encouragingly quick one by the latter, running in the colours of her sire Golden Horn and representing the William Haggas stable.

My money is on Domino Darling – and the filly who pushed her close, Gold Wand , who is also by Golden Horn – being useful next year and quite possibly Group class. That is likely to be at 10f plus, especially where the former is concerned, and you don’t really need striding measures to confirm that.

 

As I expected Earthlight was not declared at the next stage for the Prix Fontainebleau. There was some evens available on Victor Ludorum yesterday and it seemed sensible to send my nephew to William Hills to secure a double with Tropbeau in the Prix De La Grotte at 7/4. The double pays 9/2. I had thought about making it a treble with Sottsass in the D'Harcourt but he was 8/15 and his main targets will be later in the season and he's unlikely to be cherry ripe first time up.

Regarding the French 2000 Guineas, Ladbrokes and some others are offering 11/4 about Victor Ludorum and that looks a good bet given that a win on Monday will see him into 6/4 or thereabouts.

 

Earthlight has a sprained fetlock. That may eliminate him from English and French Guineas consideration.

 

Earthlight seems to be being dismissed as a sprinter. I hesitate to disagree with the experts on here but I see no reason for him to go sprinting. Yes he has only run over 6f but the way I see it, he was fast enough to win over 6f, recording good times, even on heavy ground, despite being bred (it would seem) to be suited by a mile or more: Sired by Shamardal out of a New Approach mare who has Derby winners and Arc winners back in her pedigree

On pure collateral form, admittedly over different distances VL beat Alson by less than a length whereas Earthligh beat that horse with ease in a decent time. To my mind, unless for some reason Earthlight hasn't trained on, if these 2 were to meet over 8f on good ground, my money would be on Earthlight. Earthlight has run at Newmarket and won in a fast time so I would be looking forward to him taking on Pinatubo there; although I can see that being a massive task

 

Oh ****. I didn't know that. What a waste of a post

 

I read that a sprained fetlock takes six to eight weeks to heal if is not a serious case. That would make it unlikely that Earthlight could line up in French Guineas, which is only 25 days away (Mon 1st June) and it would seem madness to rush him to a Classic without a prep run.

I would expect Victor Ludorum to be odds-on for the French 2000 Guineas if he makes a winning return on Monday. Helter Skelter seems the biggest threat based on the betting and he was not that far behind Victor Ludorum in the Lagardere. There would be no obvious reason why he would reverse the form though and Victor Ludorum seems a horse who takes a little bit of time to build to full speed before finishing strongly in his races thus far.

Ladbrokes cut Victor Ludorum from 11/4 yesterday to 11/8 today, so they must be assuming Earthlight will be unlikely to make the French 2000 Guineas.

 

Yutaka Take was poor on Helter Skelter in the Lagardere, fighting with him most of the way out of the back and looked very tame in the finish, he was finishing strong. Not sure who is on him on Monday but presumably Soumillon will be back on as I cant see a Japanese jockey coming over given current situation. Tempted to take a chance on him at 5/1 as the value for this trial, I think Victor Ludorum is the better horse but not interested at the odds given the guesswork involved in fitness of the runners, even more so than a normal season.

Tropbeau and Khayzaraan are both pretty short and neither of them winning would be a surprise, form in the book vs potential and hype, sometimes the hype is justified, sometimes not. Race to watch for me.

 

Noticed that the last Lagardere winner to win the Fontainebleu was American Post in 2004, more to do with the fact that they dont often run in it but here is the record of those who did in the last 30 years. No odds on 2 of the older ones but im pretty sure Hector Protector would have been odds on, not sure about Kendor.

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Benoit, Cristian Demuro is on Helter Skelter in the Fontainebleau.

In the Grotte, they are giving nothing away on the 1st two in the betting. Tropbeau and Khayzaraan are both 11/8 in one book. I went with Tropbeau as she may be the sharper type and Khayzaraan has some ground to make up on their form thus far. Head's Kingman filly could well turn into the one to be with in the Prix Diane though because Tropbeau may not have as much physical scope and I cannot see her over further than a mile.

 

I thought more about it last night and I'm going with Ecrivain at 7/1, his debut was quite impressive for the fact he was clueless for half the race. He looked hopeless but you can see when the penny drops and the jockey goes from trying to wake him up to trying to keep a hold of him and he managed to just scrape in. Won a decent G3 on his 2nd start and then was only beaten 1L in the Lagardere. Looking back at Arc day, I think there is a case to make for the inside not being the place to be on the day, every race was won down the outside, and maybe he was slightly disadvantaged. Both Victor and Helter Skelter take a bit of time to get going and Ecrivain looks a bit more tactically versatile, if it's a slow early pace he could nick it, he's probably more of a jockey club horse but I like the price and I like the look of him.

Agree about Tropbeau and the trip, given she's by showcasing, I had it in my head this race was 7f for some reason and I would have sided with her at that trip, but I have to go with Kayzaraan at the mile, wouldn't mind being on at the 7/2 she opened up though.

 

Ladbrokes go 5/1 Khayzaraan for the French Guineas and that looks better value to me than the average price she is for the trial. If she wins the trial, 5/1 will be history very quickly.

 

Looking at the French 2000 Guineas I feel Helter Skelter is a reasonable bet at 12/1. If he upsets Victor Ludorum or runs him close he will surely shorten up. I backed Helter Skelter on his second start last year, as I felt 2/1 was a good on a promising horse. The jockey ballsed it up that day, with Well Of Wisdom making all before being joined at the front by his Godolphin compatriot. I reckon Helter Skelter's jockey expected Well Of Wisdom to fade but he kicked on again when challenged and Helter Skelter was caught flat-footed before building to a strong run that just failed by a neck. That's all part of Racing but it's annoying when you were on probably the best horse in the race and didn't get paid.

This was that race from last July and it was a decent bit of form.

I think Helter Skelter has a better chance than the odds of 12/1 (7.7%) suggest

 

If British racing gets the go ahead to restart behind closed doors then that will surely be exclusively British runners. The French authority, France Galop, has already announced that no foreign horses or jockeys will be permitted until at least June.

So, therefore, those of us with French trained runners ante post for the Guineas have done our money and can only hope to recoup our losses on their domestic classics.

Yet in the Oddschecker betting for the 1000 Guineas, Jessica Harrington’s Albigna is second favourite, her Millisle is third favourite and my French filly Khayzaraan is next best along with Aidan O’Brien’s Love.

The 2000 Guineas betting has Andre Fabre’s Earthlight as second favourite behind hotpot Pinatubo with Aidan O’Brien’s Arizona next followed by Ger Lyons’ Siskin and John Gosden’s Palace Pier.

With the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) and Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) both scheduled for 1st June, Earthlight (5/1) and Khayzaraan (4/1) may be best taken where they are likely to run. I note that Khayzaraan is scheduled for the Prix de la Grotte on Monday that also features Pouliches favourite Tropbeau.

 

You'd think the betting houses would refund all of those bets as a good will gesture. Tight bastards.

 

The poor record of Lagardere winners in this continues. A disgusting race really for anyone betting in but what can you expect, an early season trial is a guessing game at the best of times, never mind when the trainers probably didnt even know the race was taking place till a few weeks ago.

Ecrivain looks the horse to take from the race going forward, hes now as short as 5/1 for the Guineas from 16s.

 

Could be right but the winner wasn't stopping.