Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

Love will surely be half that 20/1 if she turns up in the Guineas for Obrien and Moore, Moyglare winner, 3rd in Fillies mile only beaten 1.5l after ground went against her and being first to challenge into a strong pace. Quite similar profile to last years winner Hermosa and crucially by Galileo.

Race for me revolves around Quadrilateral, Millisle and Love, forget the rest.

 

Two divisions is a good idea but the obvious downside is having two winners listed for a race when looking at the list of previous winners of the historic trials.

My biggest concern would be imagining them splitting the Classic itself and seeing my horse win the Silver 2000 Guineas.

 

For the trials it would be a good idea if, and only if, there is only 1 day (or even 2 days) of trials instead of the usual 5 (3 X Newmarket + 2 X Newbury) to give more horses a chance to run in the races (again, if they limit to 12 horses). One of the dangers would be 2+ day meetings with horses + personnel arriving at the racecourse stables etc. while others are still there or in the process of leaving. So spaced meetings could be the norm.
They cannot split the Classics. I agree that would be daft.

 

Classics cannot be split. Whether or not they take place at their "home" course is up for debate. Chances are that when racing does commence it will be behind closed doors and limited to horses based in the UK.

 

Great opening article to this thread Grendel but I'd like to challenge you on a few things. A bit busy so I'll start with 2000G.
Think you've got this about right. The last 2yo to get as high a rating as Pinatubo was Celtic Swing. Pinatubo has none of the deficiencies of Celtic Swing, who though extremely talented had awful conformation (effectively one of his forelegs was a swinger, so he was much suited by soft ground and flat tracks). So I feel Pinatubo is a good thing.
You mention Palace Pier and Gosden. I think we may find Gosden's chief chance may rather be with a Kingman colt called King Leonidas who didn't appear until late October. He won his maiden well and there was obviously a lot of confidence behind him. One thing to watch out for is his temperament. Dettori didn't mount him in the parade ring but rather he was led out onto the course and mounted there. 50/1 freely available and he could be a good each way shot. The delay will do him no harm I shouldn't think.

 

i often wonder how good Celtic Swing would have been but for the conformation defect

 

King Leonidas was impressive on his debut and his Racing Post rating for the win was a decent 85. I reckon 80 to 90 is a good first effort to build from. It was a late season race though and the ground was soft. The 3rd home that day, Blue Skyline, was poor when favourite for a similar contest next time out and it might not have been much of a race King Leonidas won. I think they paid 750,000 guineas for King Leonidas, so he will be expected to go on to much better things. I would like to have seen him race more than once last year and it's going to be a big ask to go to a trial and then the Guineas with only one run under his belt. I can't say I know of many colts who only raced once at 2YO before winning the Guineas the following year. Nice colt to look out for though.

 

Golan

 

It is not looking good for getting racing any time soon. I have been following the odds on Racing in the UK resuming ON, or BEFORE, the 1st June and at one stage it was 2/7 that this would happen. This has been drifting these past few days and it has now flip-flopped to 4/6 that Racing will NOT return by that date and it's 6/5 that it WILL return. 2/7 to 6/5 is an alarming turnaround and we will probably be waiting a while yet.

 

Crazy.
Racing stables are practising most of the procedures every day. They can set up protocols that would protect the racing staff. For example every member from stables + racecourse staff should be tested immediately they set foot on a course. Fail a test and your stable is quarantined for 14 days.

I can't help feeling football will come back first. Yet that is a contact sport. Racing is much better set up to handle this situation as they are basically handling it everyday.

 

Andre Fabre has said that Victor Ludorum will run on the day French Racing returns (11th May) in the Prix De Fontainebleau. The French Guineas and French Derby will be his next two starts after that. The trainer had this to say regarding the colt:-

"He's a very good-looking horse, a quality type with a beautiful action and I'm very fond of him."

When asked about the colt being a worthy favourite for the French 2000 Guineas Fabre replied:-

"At this stage of the year, when nobody could run, why not? He won the Prix [Jean-Luc] Lagardere, he beat good French colts – it makes sense."

Betting is tight between Victor Ludorum and Earthlight in the French 2000 Guineas list, with Earthlight narrow favourite with some firms. Perhaps his supporters will be worried to hear what Fabre had to say about the colt who won races more associated with sprint types as a 2YO. The trainer said:-

"The plan was to give Earthlight a first run over seven furlongs and we'll see what we're going to do," Fabre said.

"He's done well but he was a precocious two-year-old and I want to see how he's doing as a three-year-old – it's always a bit of a concern.

"The 2,000 Guineas is an option for a horse of quality but we'll have to discuss it with Sheikh Mohammed and see how things are going in England."


Overall it does not read well for Earthlight as an ante-post bet for the French 2000 Guineas, given the doubts expressed by the trainer and 5/2 Fav with Paddypower looks rank value. I think Victor Ludorum is still the bet at 3/1.

 

Victor Lodorum had been 6/1 and 5/1 for months, max bet was low though, put him in an accumulator I think

 

Classic jiggery-pokery going on with the market on resumption of Racing, with betting flip-flopping today to it being odds on we WILL get Racing by the 1st June.

Oh yeah, is that right pal. Then why is it that they have just opened a new market on getting Racing back, with the new caveat being that it will be by the 1st July?

 

Who have you put in him an accumulator with if you don't mind me asking

 

Military March and Authentic

 

Thanks for that I really appreciate you sharing
Is authentic in the Kentucky Derby and military march English derby
Just making sure before I have a dabble

 

Yes, both derbys

 

I thought so cheers pal appreciate it

 

Both Victor Ludorum and Earthlight have entries in the Prix De Fontainebleau at Longchamp next Monday. Based on the French Ratings, Ecrivain, Helter Skelter, Devil and Celestin form the biggest challenge to the Fabre pair. Ecrivain and Helter Skelter ran behind Victor Ludorum in the Prix Lagardere and they were not beaten far but I reckon the ground was against Victor Ludorum that day and he did well to pick up on the surface for a good moving horse. Devil was a decent 6F horse last year and on reflection it was probably madness putting him into the Group 1 Prix Morny on his second start. He cut no ice that day in last place but it was a mighty strong field with future Group 1 and Group 2 winners and runners-up in the mix from the race won by Earthlight. Devil went on to win a Group 3 and finished only a head behind when second in a Group 2. He has to prove himself at a mile now though. Celestin was runner up on debut before a good win next time and then ending the season routing his field by more than six lengths in a Listed contest. There could be more to come from the colt particularly as he has already won at a mile on heavy ground and that defies a pedigree that lacks stamina. On the downside he has won all his races on heavy/very soft going and he will need to step up a stone to challenge the big guns.

The biggest question going into the Prix De Fontainebleau is how likely it is that Earthlight will actually run? Reading his trainers comments last week it didn't sound very likely at all because Andre Fabre more or less guaranteed that Victor Ludorum would run, whereas he stated that the plan was to start Earthlight odd over 7F and then see where his next target was after that race. If I were in Godolphin's position it would be Pinatubo for the Newmarket Guineas, Victor Ludorum for the French Guineas and I would look to sprinting with Earthlight. I will be shocked if Earthlight lines up at Longchamp next Monday and in his absence I would expect Victor Ludorum to be a warm favourite, with a win seeing him go pretty short for the French 2000 Guineas.

PS I am surprised to see some firms are actually off their arse and providing odds for next week's Longchamp meeting.

Victor Ludorum is Evens Favourite and Earthlight is 5/1. That indicates that the latter is unlikely to run. From my point of view that makes a nonsense of the two being about the same price for the French Guineas. There could be a big gap between them this time next week.

In the Prix De La Grotte the filly I have been following, Tropbeau, is 6/4 Fav from Khayzaraan on 9/4. If one of those two wins they will probably be skinny favourite for the French 1000 Guineas. They are currently 5/2 and 7/2 respectively. I am with Tropbeau and would have backed her six months ago if there were any odds available.

 

Godolphin are spoiled for choice with 3yo Colts this season, Victor Lodorum and Pinatubo look the obvious ones for their respective Guineas, and given that they also have MIlitary March for the Newmarket race, it makes sense to run Earthlight in the French version to balance it out but I wouldnt be against running him at Newmarket either. The Commonwealth winner and the top 4 in the July Cup last season all dropped back from running in Guineas as we see so often over the years, taking your chance in a Guineas is no barrier to sprinting success later in the season.

Ballydoyle standout looks like Mogul for the Derby but they usually mop up the Derby trials anyway once all these Galileos start going further than a mile, I dont think they have anything for the mile races although a Circus Maximus type could emerge.