Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

The best thing about yesterday's win for the horse's connections is that they now know he can settle and come with a run. He won the Dante from the front (it was a toughed out win) and then he tried to do similar in the Derby after such a tough race.

 

The problem with all of this is he’s trained by Hughie Morrison, who doesn’t know his arse from his elbow in terms of placing good horses.

No doubt he will step him up in grade next time out, and find a couple too good at best.

 

Highest Ground swerving the Epsom Derby for the Dante at York.

 

Welcome to 2020 everyone!

 

I am talking of how highly we can rate horses at this stage. Highest Ground would be long odds-on if he faced Waldkonig in a match next time.

Waldkonig has to go down as a huge flop this season. He was 10/1 for the Derby at one stage and it was worrying that he went to a Listed Race at Newmarket first time up this season. Odds-on that day, he was hugely disappointing, The trainer declared that it was a satisfactory start to the season but he quickly ruled the horse out of the Derby and said that he never saw the horse as a Derby type.

So satisfactory was Waldkonig's return to action that it was deemed the right move to drop to a Class 5 Novice race. What sort of career progression is that? The financial reward was pocket change at best and it's hardly something you would want to put on a CV. It would seem folly to go from defeat in a Class 5 up to Group level next time and I would assume Gosden will be looking for some halfway house to try to resurrect the horse's career.

Highest Ground is a better prospect. He showed that Waldkonig is vulnerable to anything with the ability to quicken. Ryan Moore actually asked Highest Ground first but it was soon pretty clear that Waldkonig was being held together in front and that there was zero under the bonnet when the jockey did push the button. Highest Ground will probably reach a decent level this year but for now he has beaten a questionable colt and a bunch of low level horses. The third home will probably run once more before entering the Handicap ranks somewhere in the 70s on ratings.

Michael Stoute has decided it wouldn't be fair to send the horse to the Derby at this stage. It seems every year that there is a Michael Stoute colt touted for the Derby. I don't know how many lists I saw coming into the Flat season that listed Highest Ground as a "Dark Horse" but it was clearly evident that a once raced winner by Frankel and trained by Stoute would not be dark for long. He was 50/1 for the Derby for the very reason that he had to get from zero to hero in a hurry and the trainer is not one to rush his horses. Even in a weak looking renewal the trainer has decided it would not be the right thing to do to rush him to the Derby.

Just looking at the notion of two 110+ horses meeting in a Class 5 Novice looks absurd to me and if it is the case then Highest Ground is going to have to be just about the best 3YO colt over 12F in Eurpoe this season. If we give him a theoretical figure of 122 and assume that Waldkonig can keep the gap at 5 lbs then the Gosden horse has to be 117. I can buy into the first half of that equation being possible but the latter looks a stretch of the imagination for a colt currently looking disappointing and with no obvious path to glory. Maybe Waldkonig will benefit from softer ground but he looks well behind the path of half brother Waldgeist at the same stages of their career. On 4th June 2017 Waldgeist was only caught on the line by French 2000 Guineas winner Brametot in the French Derby. At the same time of the year 2020 Waldkonig was being put in his place in a Class 5 Novice by a one raced maiden winner.

Highest Ground is no doubt a good prospect but he needs to put flesh onto the bones of his form and there is little meat on the frame of Waldkonig's achievements thus far.

 

Where are you getting 117 and 122 from? Why such a jump from 110?

I looked at the last 4f sectionals for all the 8f+ races on the card, both Waldkonig and Highest Ground were faster and carrying more weight.

The class 3 handicap at 8f looked the best race on paper and the winner ran the last 4f in 47.20 carrying 8-12, Waldkonigs last 4f was 47.00 carrying 9-8 over 10.5f, Highest Grounds final 4f was a full second faster at 46.20.

In the other class 3 handicap, Midnight Legacy clocked 47.80 in the final 4f, .8 seconds slower than Waldkonig carring 9-6, thats an 88 rated horse and theoretically it means Waldkonig would have won that race by about 4.5L off a mark of 90. Pretty much bang in line with his current low 100s rating.

While the form book doesnt allow for the rating, the clock confirms the visual impression that we saw 2 horses who were a class above anything else on the card. Waldkonig has run a fine race and bumped into 1, he could still end up winning a Group 3 imo and under the right conditions get close to or surpass 110, Highest Ground obviously has more potential, he was 4L faster than Waldkonig in the final half mile and going away at the finish.

 

Ocean Atlantique stays at home for the French Derby. Andre Fabre stated:-

"Ocean Atlantique will stay in France and will run at Chantilly," Fabre said on Saturday. "The travelling conditions make things too difficult."

I am not sure that Epsom would have been ideal for him, as he seems quite a big colt whose best asset may be his long stride.

Fabre confirmed that Victor Ludorum also goes to the French Derby. 2/1 for the Guineas winner to land the double seems a fair bet to me. I backed Victor Ludorum at 6/1 for the race and he was briefly as high as 7/1 but 2/1 seems to have been his odds for a while now following his bounce back to form in the Guineas.

 

I wonder if this could also mean that Magnier, Tabor and Smith might have a surprise up their sleeve from the AOB yard?

 

A Frankie quote about English King. “It all went well this morning and it was nice to sit on him for the first time. I found him to be really nice and I’m very happy with the ride. It was all very positive.”

 

Are you sure you’re not confusing this with a quote by Nell Gwynn

 

Will be interesting to see what colts actually get entries for Epsom

 

Hugo Palmer is sending Emissary, who was runner up in the Cocked Hat at Goodwood. This will be the trainer's first Derby runner. The Goodwood race has been won by some good sorts over the years. Troy, Pentire, Dubai Millenium and the ill fated Rewilding stand out for me, along with St Leger winner Masked Marvel. Emissary has an official rating of 98 at the moment and will need to summon a huge chunk of improvement in a hurry.

Angus Gold has ruled Al Aasy out of the Derby. The son of Sea The Stars romped home last time in a Class 5 Novice but the runner up had come in rated 67 on RPR and Bet365 cutting the Haggas horse to 16/1 for the Derby on the back of that was laughable stuff. Still widely quoted but he's out of it according to:-

Angus Gold, racing manager to owner Hamdan Al Maktoum, said: "I haven't spoken to William Haggas but Al Aasy won't be running in the Derby as it would be too much too soon for the horse. We'll look for something a bit smaller for him."

 

I see Sir Dragonet was beaten favourite for the fifth time today. Worryingly he has been odds-on three times.

Today he faced two opponents only and despite both of them having turned him over previously on occasions where Sir Dragonet was odds-on, the O'Brien horse was odds-on again. In a desperately slowly run affair, Sir Dragonet was held up last of the three and Buckhurst made all the running. It seemed as if Sir Dragonet was going well enough in the closing stages but he found disappointingly little really and Buckhurst came away again to win by more than a length.

I can't say I was impressed by last year's Derby favourite's resolution today.

 

Volkan Star pays a compliment to Waldkonig and Mishriff. Beats the well regarded 103 rated Thunderous, the pair 12L clear. Waldkonig was beaten a head by Volkan Star over course and distance despite not handling the track, decent run in hindsight and that form looks quite smart.

 

I half expected him to lose today - again. Not sure why they are running him over 10f, especially on fast ground. He has won 2 races, both with an "s" in the going and both over 12f. The track and the ground were against him in the Derby and he hasn't been the same since. I mean, what are they playing at? At least give the horse a chance. 12f with some give in the ground

 

Thunderous was stepping up 3F from soft ground to good to firm. I have always found it bad news using virtual match races as a guide to form going forward but each to their own.

 

Santiago and Tiger Moth both got 117 from the Racing Post for their Irish Derby runs. Surely they must run both colts in the Epsom Derby now because they asr both 6 lbs ahead of the favourite English King with the Racing Post now.

Tiger Moth came into the Irish Derby rated 95, so after coming forward from 80 to 85 on his first two starts, he has now leapt forward by 32 lbs in one fell swoop.

What a load of bollocks. Tiger Moth is 20/1 for Epsom. What a **** show of a Derby.

Santiago is 3/1 for the St Leger now but will probably be aimed elsewhere now in this crazy season. They may have run the guts out of him by then

 

Not sure I understand what you are saying there Grendel. Are you accepting that Tiger Moth can leap 32lbs in one fell swoop or are you rubbishing that?

 

I think I found the answer in the daily thread

 

Put it another way Ron.

How many maiden races can you think of where the 1st three home improved 32, 26 and 25 lbs on their next start?

One horse doing it is one thing but all three? Looking at Tiger Moth, he went from running to 80 as a 2YO to then winning his maiden with a rating of 85. That means that the horse improved just 5 lbs over a 6 month period between races. Then, in the space of 18 days he has improved 32 lbs. That seems incongruous to me.

Even if we allow for his previous performance being underrated it still looks way out of kilter. The Racing Post guy has gone back and upgraded the rating of all three horses from the maiden race by 2 lbs but that seems a pointless amount, as it still leaves all three runners making incredible improvement next time out.

You could perhaps make a case for a totally facile winner being unable to assess accurately but Tiger Moth only won by half a length. Even if we were to assume that all three horses did improve by a huge amount they did not come clear of their field in the manner that might make that theory more digestible. They were just a length and a quarter ahead of the 4th horse in that maiden and that is why the assessor is limited in how much he can upgrade the race in retrospect and why we get this half-assed 2 lb increase that explains nothing in the scheme of 25 lb to 32 lb increases.

The Racing Post assessor has actually increased the ratings of Santiago and Tiger Moth to 118 this morning. That puts both horses 5 lbs ahead of Epsom favourite English King. I would be mega concerned about that if I were a fan of the Ed Walker horse.

Off the top of my head I would think that only Kameko is rated higher than Santiago and Tiger Moth going into the Epsom Derby. The rating of 118 also matches the Racing Post rating given to Pinatubo in the 2000 Guineas, Who would have thought that a Queens Vase winner and a Maiden winner would have been awarded the same rating as a multiple Group 1 winning horse?

I could be wrong of course but using all my experience and given the topsy-turvy nature of this season I can only conclude that 118 for the 1-2 in the Irish Derby is nonsense.

Looking at the leading Epsom candidates and inserting Santiago and Tiger Moth into the list based on Racing Post ratings gives the following picture:-

Kameko 121
Santiago 118
Tiger Moth 118
English King 113
Vatican City 113
Russian Emperor 111
Pyledriver 110
Mogul 109

Looking at that list makes it look as if Aidan has sent the wrong horses to Epsom. Mogul actually took a step backwards on his most recent start and Russian Emperor only improved from 107 to 111 last time, so he looks nothing like the mega improvers from the Irish Derby.

One last stat to try to convince you Ron. Siskin, who is unbeaten and won the Irish Guineas is rated 1 lb BEHIND Santiago and Tiger Moth on RPR now.