Interesting read. I watched the reruns of all the main protagonists yesterday. It seemed that the longer the season went on the closer they got to beating SISKIN. Armory and Lope both suffered at the hands of Pinatubo last season and with his seasonal debut less than sparkling it tempers the enthusiasm somewhat as a formline. Siskin looked to me like a two year old rather than one that would come on at three. Of them all, purely on looks as to what they may have developed into, the one I like is Vatican City. I know it was a modest race at Dundalk but he looked like a horse who really had a frame to fill. I think he could have developed into a really nice 3yo and he would be my pick in a fairly ordinary looking G1.
I see Pinatubo and Wichita are 7/4 Joint Favourites for the St James Palace Stakes. Palace Pier is next in the betting at 6/1. Pinatubo has to pass a stalls test before being allowed to run in the race and I can't help but feel that their eagerness to get him to the track again so soon is is partly due to a feeling that the horse may have been caught up with, or even regressed to some extent. There was talk coming into the Guineas that Pinatubo could run to 7 lbs below his 2YO best and still win the Guineas and the Racing Post had him nine pounds below that form with a 119 effort in finishing 3rd. I suspect he has run to less than that and do not buy into Kameko on 122 and Wichita on 121 in finishing 1st and second. For me it is much more likely that Pinatubo never was 128 and has run seven pounds below a 121 or 122 at the very most for his 2YO form. That mark of 114 or 115 for Pinatubo puts Kameko and Witchita more like the figures I would be comfortable with in what had been deemed a one horse race coming in. The Racing Post have taken the 4th home Miltary March as running to his previous 113 mark but after the race the trainer Saaed Bin Suroor stated that his colt was crying out for another half mile and it seems unlikely that a horse could have performed right up to his best over a trip deemed to be totally inadequate for him and I believe that Military March needs to improve quite a bit for the extra distance to warrant his pretty skinny price for Epsom now. Palace Pier looks a better bit of value at 6/1. He is up to 109 now and although he needs a fair bit if Witchita IS a 121 horse, he is going the right way. Would Gosden run him again so quickly though? There are some real no hopers quoted in the betting for the St James Palace and some clearly won't be running in it. If I thought Palace Pier would show I would have a bet on him but although I read that the colt was more likely to go to Ascot than to the Derby I don't really trust Gosden based on various changes of heart over the years from the handler. Quite why Palace Pier is favourite for the St Leger is a mystery to me and a testament to some of the odds compilers seeming to know next to nothing about the game.
Very difficult to get away from Siskin, best horse Lyons has ever had by all accounts and wont get a better chance than this to win a Guineas. Obrien is throwing the kitchen sink at it but im struggling to believe any of them are G1 milers. Armory was a solid 110 horse last year but he doesnt have many gears. I liked Vatican City for the Britannia, didnt expect to see him pitched straight into a G1. Siskins performance in the Railway is a level above what any of these have shown, they were worried about soft ground in the Pheonix and he got away with it, should be much better back on fast ground. 5/2 is a fair enough price and ill be backing him.
Kameko was rated 119 for the Guineas officially as expected, RPRs are always higher than official ratings but 119 on the official scale was pretty much indisputable. Military March ran close to his mile best of 113, the hope is that his best is actually a fair bit higher and will only be seen when he takes part in a middle distance race.
Im already having second thoughts about Siskin Its a case of if he stays he wins and 5/2 seems too good to be true, hed be about 5/4 if he was certain to stay. I liked Armory last year and the Lagardere reads quite well with Victor Ludorum and Alson being 1st and 3rd in an admittedly weak French Guineas, but in the context of this similarly weak G1 its not bad form. Siskin will also be up against team tactics like Elarqam a few years ago. We saw how much a similarly exposed looking Love improved over the winter and If Armory has improved at all he should go close with the race set up for him.
I know the ground was fast for the Lingfield Derby trial and it was run a month later than usual but even so apart from Highrise in 1998 that as the only sub 2m:25s LDT I can find in the last years Don't know how much to allow for the extra month. According to the BHA WFA scale it is about 4lbs at most which I think equates to around half a second. So if we assume the race would have been half a second slower had it been run a month earlier that would make his time around 2m 24.86s still sub 2m:25s and effectively the same as High Rise. If that sounds reasonable to the experts then the next thing to consider is the whether or not any previous runnings were on equally fast grouind. That I don't know Looking at previous winners that went on to win the Derby (are there only 4?) I can only assume the ground was soft so that isn't much help 1983 Teenoso 02:54.6 (?) 1985 Slip Anchor 02:37.5 (?) 1988 Kahyasi 02:39.0 (good) 2019 Anthony Van Dyck 02:31.3 (soft) Is there a reasonable explanation for Kahyasi's time being a good 14 secs slower? The standard time for the Lingfield Derby Trial distance is 2 min 25.8s The standard time for the Epsom Derby distance is 2 min 34.5s Ratio 1.06 If we project English King's adjusted time I make that a projected Deby time of 2 min 33.6s (ie 0.9s fast) Over 2 secs slower than Workforce and slightly slower than last year's winner Conclusion. Doesn't exactly add a lot of confidence but in an average year he has a good chance NB All calcs approx an err on the side of caution
The form book says High Rise won on good ground but the times strongly suggest it was firm, and he only won by a neck from Sadian who id never heard of but appears to have been a G3 horse, which suggests it wasnt that special a performance to clock the time. Berkshire Rocco clocked just 0.02s slower than High Rise so that about sums up the significance of the time imo, just lightening quick ground after a very dry and sunny May with the longest spell of no racing in the tracks history no doubt, probably why we had such fast times at the Newmarket meeting as well with Kameko clocking the fastest 2000 Guineas time despite only running to 119. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-...er-and-climate/2020/2020-spring-and-may-stats
This may or may not interest you Ron re times at Lingfield High Rise only carried 8-7 compared to English Kings 9-0, so ive looked at the top 10 overall and the top 10 carrying 9 stone or more, this year not included. please log in to view this image please log in to view this image
Excellent Joe. Very interesting What a mixed bag. Looking at Highrise is fairly encouraging. I assume some of those are older than 3 so WFA could well indicate English King's performance is encouraging. The one that stands out like a sore thumb is that Amateur race. Lumping 11.7 to a sub 2:25 I wonder what the sectional was for the downhill bit I'm not taking too much notice of Berkshire Rocco Sea The Stars only beat average horses; until he won the Arc Harbinger didn't beat a grand deal before pulverising G1 horses in the KG. It depends how much he could have won by had he been pushed harder and how much better he will be with that experience behind him. I was hoping the times would indicate, with ample allowance for all factors (margin for error) that he would be a wheelbarrow job. Unfortunately, that isn't the case. I'm therefore hanging on the impressive style in which he won, not who he beat, combined with the time and his inexperience Thanks for your research; much appreciated
Lope y Fernandez is the one for money. Siskin is weak and out to 11/4. It is possible the former horse could go off favourite. Vatican City is out to 9/1 and I think he could be 10/1 before the afternoon is much older. He is 21 lbs behind Siskin on official ratings and I feel this is the wrong task for a promising horse so early in his career. Some money for Harrington's Free Solo and despite being by Showcasing the colt has already won over a mile. He scooted home by 5 lengths when landing his maiden and the standout horse from that race would be Cormorant, who recently landed a weak looking Derrinstown. A decent looking prospect but his OR of 97 leaves him 17 lbs in arrears of Siskin's mark. Like Vatican City, he is unexposed but stepping up several levels in a hurry.
No really seeing it with Lope Y Fernandez, and Seamie is a liability, Wayne Lordan a much better jockey. Siskin 3.65 and Lope Y Fernandez 5.3 on betfair so nowhere close to a new fav at this stage, id be surprised if Armory didnt start shortest of Obriens runners, the word has been that Seamie is on the first strings but the results on the track havent backed that up.
Domino Darling has been pulled out of the race at Newbury tomorrow. That would seem odd at this late stage?
Must be injured. Happy enough with 10/1 Oriental Mystique for that race now. edit: bad scope apparently Ascot probably last chance to run her before the oaks now, pulled out of 2 races now, odds on she wont run id say
The Irish Guineas seems a raffle to me. I'd normally stick with an AOB runner, but they all seem brittle. But knowing the man, he could pull off something special. I can't see why Siskin is so on the nose though. It looks like everyone is scrambling to find something to beat him, which is a bit odd, especially as he has the runs on the board, at least compared to the rest of the field. He might not win, but he has to be in this right up to his back teeth.
G1 stats for Obrien, some career Seamie Heffernan has had Lordan wins: 3 rides: 61 avg odds: 30/1 Seamie wins: 28 rides: 371 avg odds: 28/1 Beggy wins: 2 rides: 27 avg odds: 42/1 Emmet wins: 0 rides: 9 avg odds: 40/1
There were at least 4 others but you have to go back to 1959 before you get the next one. I was there the day Teenoso (Cauthen) won it and it was on the heavy side of soft. That was an exceedingly wet spring. I know of 2 Derby winners who were beaten into 2nd in the Trial and they are Charlottown and Blakeney.
Both Kameko and Siskin were American bred, is this the first time US horses have won both races in the same year?
Tawkeel landed the Pix Saint Alary in grand style at the weekend. She fairly scooted away to win by 5 lengths. Looking at them before the start Tawkeel outclassed the favourite Solsticia, who was much less imposing. In the end Solsticia nearly got up for second but she was a bit disappointing given that her previous win was boosted when the runner up won a Group 3 next time out. Jean-Claude Rouget already had the favourite for the Prix Diane in the shape of Raabihah but for my money Tawkeel comes out easily the better filly based on collateral form through American Apples, Ebariya and Solsticia, it is also the case that she was much more persuasive with the style of her victory, with a turn of foot that delighted connections. With two fillies in the same stable and ownership you do wonder what they will play and where but despite talk of Epsom for Tawkeel I would think she would be better served at home over 10F than taking on Love over 12F in the Oaks. That was the best performance from a French filly I have seen this season and although it wasn't really a Group 1 Saint Alary in the strictest framing of the quality level required, the Prix Diane does not look any stronger if we are being brutally honest. I decided to play Tawkeel at 5/1 and wish I had had some of the 20/1 available before Sunday's race. Prix Diane 5th July Tawkeel 5/1 Bet365 have her as their 3/1 favourite for the race.
The Racing Post have rated Siskin 117 for his Irish Guineas win. I can't say I have faith in that figure. In order to rate him that highly they have had to raise Vatican City 25 lbs from his previous figure. In addition that also gave Lope Y Fernandez a new personal best of 111 when it was obvious he did not stay the mile. Armory was given as equalling his previous best and Fiscal Rules was pushed up 28 lbs. While you can expect lightly raced horses to improve a fair bit in their 2nd season 25 lbs and 28 lbs are mighty leaps forward and the assessors seem to rate Group 1 races to a certain level just because of the status. Phoenix Of Spain was rated 120 for winning last year's Irish Guineas and that looked way high to me. The horse went 6th, 6th, 5th and 10th in his next four races and was retired to stud.
