EPSOM DERBY DAY (write ups and final selections) Thunderstorm warnings in Epsom - going still listed as GOOD. FINAL BET - PRIDE OF ARRAS 9/2 - 1 point win MIDAK - 0.5 EW now 11/1 (small saver GREEN STORM now 150/1) Let’s start with the Derby. I’ve shared that AOB special above. If you fancy DELACROIX who is now 5/2 you might as well just take that 2/1 special as it gives you Lambourn/Lion In Winter as well essentially. However if you fancy THE LION IN WINTER for example - don’t be swayed by that offer and take the 10/1. One thing I will say about LION IN WINTER is that he was treated very gently in the Dante at York. This is the race PRIDE OF ARRAS won. I feel this form is better than DELACROIXS Irish form and 9/2 is significant value over the current 5/2 best with Moores DELACROIX. If you fancy LION IN WINTER - don’t let the draw put you off too much IMO. Not many 19 runner Derby races so stats are from small sample sizes. He’s bound to improve and was expected to be fav here. RULING COURT is same profile as DESERT FLOWER yesterday. Big questions on trip. Fair price now at 8/1 on a big drift. Not for me. MIDAK into 11/1 - well drawn - will benefit from any rain… GREEN STORM, AL WASL STORMand SEA SCOUT look the interesting 3 digit prices in the race. Can get 5 paid with SKY - shop around with best places. 1pm PRINCE ELIZABETH STAKES Took a gamble on rain which is yet to come for SPARKS FLY. She is definitely better on soft and even better on heavy. Doesn’t look like she will get it… SPIRITUAL has a G3 run under belt in the same race as today’s Musselburgh selection JABAARA. He came 3rd only a length of the winner. Drops back to handicap company and Gosdens in good form. 1.35 - DIOMED STAKES G3 DOCKLANDS seems to be the one the market are siding with. We are ahead of the SP with price as short as 15/8 now. Recent Ascot form points towards a big run. TYRRHENIAN SEA at 22/1 might be the overpriced horse in this one. 2.10 - BLINKY 6 places paid with SKY. Worth a small EW here - will all come down to the start IMO. 16 runners in a 5 furlong sprint. Will be a quick dash and whoever wins will likely require a bit of luck in play. 5.00 - WAR HAWK Well backed now into 4/1. We are well ahead of SP and look to go of fav. Won stylishly for us LTO. I think this is quite the ask but 11/2 was good value earlier for him. Fingers crossed he goes in again for a nice price winner!!
