2. VIP CARLISLE 1.50 SNAKE ROLL - 6/4 - 2 point win Form on offer here is miles ahead of the rest of the field and this represents a step down in class from his 3rd place in the Grade 2 at Kelso. What really strengthens that form in the Grade 2 is the fact that NEMEAN LION the winner has come back this season to win readily and the second in that Kelso race COLONEL HARRY is a good horse to boot. SNAKE ROLL was just denied at Perth by a nose in the class 3 and arrives back off a 4 month break. Another important thing to note is that he landed a win after a similar break last year so going fresh should be no concern. This is his chase debut and rivals must give him a few lbs. Lucinda Russell's horses should have no issue with the ground but he’s unproven on it, so that really is the main concern. Longshots 1.20 - KINGSTON BRIDGE - 7/1 - 3 paid - 0.5 EW 4.45 - CARTONNE 9/1 - 3 paid - 0.5 EW I’ve had a word to track KINGSTON BRIDGE for this season and I think this price is worth having a go at on the first run of the year. Ended his season in fine form and most important hit the ground running on his first attempt at Kelso last year winning at 22/1. His form read 124312 last year so rarely runs a bad race. A place can be expected today but I’ve hopes he can compete for the win. Old members will be familiar with CARTONNE as he won a few times for us last year when chasing. He was then switched to hurdles and he was by no means disgraced but obviously does his best work chasing and he’s been returned to that discipline today. I think 9/1 is decent value and it’s worth nothing that rider Theo Gillard boasts a solid record at Carlisle. Donald Mccain is currently on a 35 race losing streak but if his luck is going to change anywhere you would imagine it to be here at Carlisle where he boasts an impressive strike rate and return on investment from following his inmates. TOTAL POINTS 3.
3. VIP WINCANTON 1.30 WINCANTON - SOMESPRING SPECIAL3/1 - 1 point win SOMESPRING SPECIAL makes debut overs fences today off what looks to a be a handy mark. She has proven herself to be a decent horse last year for the Honeyball team. Bit of a dilemma here as I’ve already got my bet on SOMESPRING SPECIAL at 3/1… but we have also had info from Scotty for PORTER IN THE PARK who is now 5/2. I’ve had a bet on mine and left the info today personally. Will leave you guys to look into and make your own decision on the race. 2.35 WINCANTON - PLEASANT MAN 2/1 - 1 point win Has had runs over the summer as was tried on the flat at Ascot (What I like to call a day out horse as he was never winning the Ascot Stakes) We can draw a line under that run and go back to his hurdling experience where his form reads 3222 in recent efforts. Second at Hereford but was never winning, should of won at Exeter but the jockey drop the reigns and he was chinned on the line. He’s been quite unlucky not to win and today is his chance to win. Powerful yard with Harry Cobden taking over the reigns. 30% strike rate here for Harry Cobden from nearly 200 runners… ridiculous. This is mainly due to the Nicholls partnership and they will be here to win this race today… TOTAL POINTS suggested 2.
More in hope than expectation, put his rides in multi bets. Today, his last ever rides at Ascot? I doubt it.
Got a free £5 from Paddy's for any Ascot race, first race and Trawlerman jumped out at me, being from 'Ull it had to be. Nice £35 for nowt.
VIP Tuesday Morning guys one Aidan has sent over for us today. I will have mine posted by 11.30am. Exeter 3.00 - BACK ON THE LASH 8/1 - 1 point EW His only success last season came over the cross country fences at Cheltenham in January however, he struggled at the festival there and was also pulled up in the Aintree Grand National which he’s not been seen since. It looks like the cross country trips are going ti be his main target for this season and if bouncing back fresh he could take all the beating today.
VIP TUESDAY Couple from me today for this afternoon. Have 3 lined up for Wolves tonight I’ll post this afternoon. 2.00 EXETER - PITTSBURG 10/1 - 5 paid - 1 point EW My other tracker runs in the 3.30 but GO TO WAR has already been backed into a price of 5/6.. to short for a proper tip but it looks the winner today down in grade. This Fergal O Brien horse is one to keep an eye on this year. PITTSBURGS Form figures currently read 112223, we have taken EW returns for PITTSBURG four times now. Runs well every race, keeps finding one better. The price is right here to stick with him in the amateur jockey race that starts a decent day of racing at Exeter. 3.40 HEREFORD - MONTREGARD 6/4 - 1 point win Not seen since April where he beat DEMOCRITUS by half a length. Watching that back this morning caused more concern than anything as MONTREGARD jumped right on a few occasions and needed encouragement from the persuader a few times throughout the race. With that said, he did respond well and went on to win. The second place DEMOCRITUS then went on to win himself this August which is a good sign for that form line. MONTREGARD is the half brother to PROTEKORAT who is a group winner, he will need to show plenty of improvement to win this today but the talents there he’s just a bit rough around the edges.
Tonight’s football is like a wet night in stoke if you’re a Brazilian expecting sunshine at 8 o’clock at night!
VIP Wednesday Had my bet on SO LOGICAL in the 1.50 about an hour ago, it was 7/4 and has now drifted out to 3/1 and bet boosted on 365 out to nearly 4/1… this is a big concern, especially considering SHEMOZZIE has now been backed from 5/1 into 15/8 for debut. With that said it’s good value now if anyone fancies a bet but you can’t be confident after a market move of such magnitude with so many unraced animals. I thought SO LOGICAL ran well for the Gosdens on debut and would likely build on that 3rd place but looking into the pedigree of SHEMOZZIE you can see why she will be popular today. An interesting race to start off at Newmarket. 4.10 NEWMARKET - ZOUZANNA 7/2 - 1 point win We bet ZOUZANNA last time out at Newmarket where she finished 3rd despite finishing like a train. She left a lasting impression and we were unlucky not to come away with the win. The forms working out well from that race with those finishing behind her going on to run creditably in decent races, notably Patiche who looked very smart when second last week. Murphy was on board for us then, we have Rossa Ryan today and hopefully more prominent tactics will be adopted after getting caught in the read of the field in traffic LTO, cost her the race. 5.20 NEWMARKET - BROADWAY ACT 13/8 - 1 point win Makes handicap debut after winning nicely here at Newmarket. He’s had 3 races and ran well on all 3 occasions, 221 reads the form and every effort credible including that over C&D. The main danger here looks to be MAFNOOD who is good value at 11/2 if he can refind his form after a very poor effort at Kempton. Hard to have confidence with Crowleys mounts at the moment he’s operating of a 10% win rate and that would be significantly lower if not for yesterdays win on a 2/9 shot. Bucik on the other hand is riding off a 30% strike rate over his past 30 rides, definitely seems the one to be on side with in this race. Good luck all Nate
Melusine De pail 4.05 Ludlow Currently 25/1 - 4 places each way paddy power or sky bet or bet365 ( you could also get extra places if you wish with bet365) Could be much bigger later 50/1 if you prefer to wait Yard think it’s a weapon but could well need the run but it’s trying and the value is huge so worth small risk each way. Good luck
VIP LUDLOW Morning guys - few for Ludlow, we have a member there today so hopefully can bounce back with some winners. Carlisle and Lingfield out before 12. 1.50 - DINDIN - 10/1 - 1 point EW - 3 paid - 1 point EW. This Pipe trained French recruit has placed in nearly 35% of his races. He’s not won loads but rarely runs a bad race and looks good value at 10/1 (sky bet) - I’ve taken 10/1 but he’s as short as 13/2 on Bet365 so if you can get the 10/1 it’s certainly good value. 2.55 - CHOCCCABLOC - 15/8 - 1 point win New horse in the tracker who finished his season with a win in March at Market Rasen. He makes his hurdle debut today. Nicky Hendserson says ‘He’s looking forward to him running, he’s quite forward, schooled very nicely and been working well’ He was 2/1 not long ago so is finding market support. 5.41 - NIBRAS GOLD 9/2 - 1 point win Running of a high mark but holding form very well. Been kept busy over summer and will likely put another good effort together today if handling the conditions. 311224212513222.. Hardly finished outside the places in the last two years. A solid performer for the Pipe team. Good luck all Nate
VIP Two more today. Cheltenham is back tomorrow so I will have a good write up and a good go there over the weekend. VIP CARLISLE 3.55 - GOOD RISK IT ALL - 2/1 - 1 point win. The favourite here Giovinco is enjoying a top spell with 4 wins in a row and makes chasing debut today for Lucinda Russell, the obvious one to beat. The value lies with GOOD RISK IT ALL who is proven at this level and known to go well fresh. This represents a big drop in class and he has won at higher levels than this on his seasonal reappearance at this C&D last year when he won a class 2 race on heavy ground with relative ease. VIP LINGFIELD 3.40 - SAVIOUR 15/8 - 1 point win Most horses in the line up will improve from debut runs but SAVIOUR is the best prospect of these and holds the best form clue with his 3rd place at Salisbury earlier in the month. Has been touted as one to follow for the Hugo Palmer team this season.
VIP Sunday Two here from Aidan guys at Aintree. I don’t think I’ll be having many bets myself by the looks of it. Will have a Sunday roast NAP posted by 12pm ✅ Aintree 1.25 - CAP DU NORD 12/1 (1 point EW) Was well beaten in a similar event at Chepstow 16 days ago and his current form figures don’t look great however, he will be a big player here if bouncing back to his best. Has won from this mark in Class 1’s previously so looks a big price. Aintree 2.00 - MINELLA DRAMA 12/1 (1 point EW) Looks a wide open and very competitive affair, MINELLA DRAMA managed to defy top weight in a couple of Scottish events last winter and took the tally to 3-3 in handicaps. Ran well in a Grade 1 event over this course and distance on soft in April when finishing 3rd 7 lengths behind PIC D’ORHY and holds solid claims on reappearance.
VIP TUESDAY 4.16 CHEPSTOW - CAPTAIN BELLAMY 6/5 - 1 point win Only short one that I like today and one of two tracked horses I have. CAPTAIN BELLAMY has plenty of unraced rivals to deal with but is streets ahead in the markets due to the fact he has a bumper under his belt (won that without breaking a sweat) - The Nicholls team have a brilliant record in this. It should take a decent one to beat this favourite. LONGSHOTS 12.25 CHEPSTOW - ONETHREEFIVENOTOUT 6/1 -4 paid sky 1 point EW 1.30 CHEPSTOW - MINELLA BOBO - 7/1 - 4 places paid sky - 1 point EW 2.52 CATTERICK - OBEE JO - 6/1 - 4 places paid 365 - 1 point EW 4.24 CATTERICK - LANGHOLM 13/2 - 4 places paid Sky - 1 point EW In the 12.25 I did like the look of HOE JOLY SMOKE but expected a bigger price today with all considered. There's 4 paid here and I think ONETHREEFIVENOUT offers better value at 6/1 or 13/2 with 3 paid elsewhere. It’s been a long time since we have seen this horse run but he has been picked up by the Nicholls team and is touted as one to follow this season. MINELLA BOBO is one of the very first horses I tracked. I can remember the race well because he won at Stratford by nearly 20 lengths all the way back in 2019. Plenty to prove at this point after a difficult year in 2022. After a big win at Ffos Las where he beat LANDOFSMILES (who ran a cracker at Aintree on Sunday) by 15 lengths he found himself well to high in the handicap to be effective. He’s now nearly 10lbs below LWM so worth trying at an EW price. OBEE JO has a talented 7lb claimer on board that leaves the horse 3lb below the last winning mark. Prolific runner and 3 time course winner, should be going close off these terms today for the Easterby team. Finally I reckon LANGHOLM is capable of turning the form around with the favourite here who needs to concede 7lb to LANGHOLM today. It’s a long losing streak for the horse at this point but there's been plenty of solid runs recently and the horse should be fine on this testing ground. TOTAL POINTS SUGGESTED - 5.
VIP Wednesday. CALL THE DANCE - 2/1. - 1 point win - I track the favourite who at 11/10 looks very short… he does have a run under his belt which is probably why he has the short price over our selection CALL THE DANCE. This Henderson horse has already proven to be talented in her bumper win last year “She won her bumper at Southwell and so she will get on and go over hurdles. She does everything right. She goes very nicely and is very straightforward, she is a sweet filly”. Henderson is keen on her. The main concern is the fitness for Nicky’s horses who sometimes take a few weeks into November to really get firing but Nico De Boinville has made a few comments that they are hitting form ahead of schedule this year which is encouraging for this one tomorrow!
VIP Wednesday Two from Lingfield, I think there will be one more Lingfield out shortly and a longshot at Fakenham. These will be posted by 11.30 am latest. 1.00 LINGFIELD - MAJED 7/4 - 1 point win Ambiente Friendly is the horse that beat MAJED on debut at Leicester last month in a class 3 race. MAJED finished 2nd well ahead of the rest of the pack but a few lengths behind the winner. This winner was then thrown straight into the group 3 at Newmarket where he came 3rd. Todays race is a class 5, so a step down for MAJED who needs to beat the favorite Accumulate who is a similar price and arrives off a solid class 4 win at Newmarket. It’s a coin flip between these two but theres more value with MAJED, the forms franked and he carries half a stone less than the favorite which could well be the decisive factor in todays race. 2.05 LINGFIELD - TERAABB 3/1 - 1 point win TERAABB has now ran two solid races at class 4 and like the favourite Placo drops down in class today after being narrowly denied when last running. Placo is short today at 6/5, but he’s the one to beat in this maiden, TERAABB looks good value to take him on at 3/1 espcially when you look at the form of EDGE OF BLUE who best him at Yarmouth. This horse has gone on to win twice including once at class 3, this really bodes well for TERABBS chances. Irish tips here - https://t.me/ kufFTxJNhc03Y2Jk ☘️
