VIP THURSDAY Stes taking over tomorrow… I only have one long shot and a NAP that will be posted in the mornin… THURSDAY 1335 Newcastle - TRUE LEGEND 3/1 - 1 point win MASO BASTIE makes his handicap debut after winning two of his 3 career starts but the values with TRUE LEGEND here and his form stacks up pretty well, 0-3 last year but left that form way behind him with a win over CD back from 203 days off at 1/1 fav with the other three in the field that day all winning since, improved again upped in class nto to win at salisbury with the third and fourth going in again and he went off favourite lto upped into a class two at Doncaster earlier in the month when only managing fifth but he had a slow start there and the winner of that (QUEEN GEORGE) has since finished runner up to the talented GREGORY in the group 2 Queen Vase at ascot last week, goes off the same mark here back down to a class 4 and he already has a CD win to his name unlike any others in the field, should have more improvement to come and worth taken on the fav with. 1730 Newmarket- CAPONE 9/4 - 1 point win CAPONE is 8 years old now but he's only had the 20 career runs and missed all of 2021 and most of 2022, rated much higher over hurdles having been jumping most of his career but he popped up for his only start last year with a runner up on his third start on the flat and then returned this year after another 463 days off to finish fourth at Goodwood over this distance, built on that nto with a third at Chester with the first and second both winning nto before finally getting his head infront when returning there twenty days later with a comfortable win over 1m 7f beating Percy Jones by four and half lengths. 5lb rise here but he's down in class and I think if in the same mood then he could get back to back wins with Ben Curtis retaining the ride for the yards only runner on the card. (Also entered to run at Chester next week) 1800 Hamilton- TWO AULD PALS 6/1 EW - 1 point ew Followed TWO AULD PALS since debut and it took him "just" 14 starts to get off the mark for us when winning over 2m 1f at Carlisle earlier in the month off the back of a runner up at Ayr over this distance in May, the 4th placed horse in his last race has gone in since and the drop in trip shouldn't be an issue, main negative here is probably his record at the track (0-7) but it looks like the penny's finally dropped and Thomas Easterbys claim puts him 3lb below his mark for that win earlier in the month, his win came over this surface, he looks the stronger of the yards three runners in this and I think he looks the most appealing from the nine in the field, I'll be backing to win but you can just about get eachway at 6s. 1520 Newcastle- SYMBOL OF LIGHT 18/1 EW - 0.5 ew Tipped SYMBOL OF LIGHT a few weeks back but he was a non runner, he returns from over 500 days off so its anyone's guess on what to expect but he's got quite an interesting profile, he started off with the Godolphins and Charlie Appleby finishing third on debut at Newmarket to some decent types who have since ran in group and listed company before going off odds on favourite on his next two starts winning comfortably, returned in January last year to complete the hatrick again at odds on and hasn't been seen since but he returns here after a long lay off and wind surgery with a new yard. He's gained all three of his wins on this surface once over this distance and at 18/1 I think he's worth taken a chance on.
THURSDAY VIP Stes selections for us today. Mine posted by 12.30 latest. 1345 Yarmouth- FREE STEP 4/1 - point win EMBARKED looks well worth taken on at 6/5 considering he's still a maiden after 18 runs and hasn't placed better than 4th albeit he has been running over in Hong Kong but I don't see how he's so short and FREE STEP could be the one to follow here, won once from 6 career runs for her previous yard and she got off to a flyer on debut for her new stable when going all out to win over course and distance last month back from 175 days off, 6lb higher here taking Fraser's claim into account and she didn't back that effort up lto back here earlier in the month but if turning up then there's no reason she can't go close with Kaiya Fraser on board for his only ride of the day who I thinks a decent amateur, RED EVELYN I'd rate the main danger. 1445 Doncaster- AL MOOTAMARID 11/2 EW 0.5 ew Looking at the pedigree of some of these you'd expect a few to go onto much better things, STORMY WAVE is a Dubawi colt who comes from strong connections and no doubt will have a bright future but the Appleby yard are out of sorts at the minute so at 7/4 I think he can be ignored, the current favorite BIGBERTIEBASSET isn't as well bred as some of these but he's the half brother to plenty of winners and already has experience after finishing runner up on debut earlier in the month, again the odds are to short, the yard aren't inform and I reckon a couple in here will be better, it was ARABIC LEGEND & AL MOOTAMARID that stood out most to me in this with the latter just edging it, his pedigree alone stands out most but he's the half brother to some real classy horses too that include Dhahabi and Golden horn who was a four time group 1 winner, he's the value of the four with Atzeni in the saddle and a few of these are probably worth putting in the tracker for the future. 1730 Newcastle- LIBERTUS 10/1 EW 14/1 - 0.5 ew Tipped LIBERTUS a fair few times now since his debut and he's only managed to get his head infront once from his 12 career starts (runner up 3 times), that came over a furlong further than this at Southwell in similar conditions and all but the selection and one other runner in that have won since, best effort this year was probably his second to grandfather Tom at Lingfield over this distance who I think was going for the hatrick at the time and if ignoring his last run when unseating his rider after stumbling out the stalls then I think he's slightly over priced here along as that latest start hasn't left him with any problems, 7lb claimer Tommie Jakes keeps the ride who was also on board for his runner up two starts ago and I think he's well worth a eachway here with 4 places on offer. 2020 Newcastle- BOLD TERRITORIES 15/2 EW - 0.5 ew Plenty with a chance here and another with 4 places on offer, BOLD TERRITORIES is yet to fire this year from his three starts with his best effort probably coming lto when 4th here over a 1m but he was only beaten 3 lengths there and he's just 3lb above his last winning mark when rattling off the hatrick back in September, he's also the only course & distance winner in the field and yard do well with these types of races, a repeat of his last race could be enough to get him a place here and if improving on that last run then he could do better than a place. 2100 chester- BIRKENHEAD 14/1 EW - 0.5 point EW Always back BIRKENHEAD and we've had him a few times in VIP including at York last year when he won at 40/1 for us over this distance and he's back on that same mark here, missed the break lto finishing 5th and he had similar excuses on his start before at Haydock but he showed his speed three starts ago at Southwell when winning well and Nolan who was in the saddle that day jumps back on board, cheekpeices back on and he won off a higher mark just last year. He also has the plum draw which is normally a good advantage here at chester but if he misses the start like he sometimes does then that will blow any chances but at 18/1 it's a chance worth taken.
SATURDAY Stes tips 1255 Newcastle- BRAD TO BRIEF 10/3 - 1 point win BRAD TO BRIEF is the highest rated in the field and if returning back to his best then I think he could be tough to beat, he was a group 3 winner last year for his previous trainer although he has always been at Manor House stables and he won his first two starts since joining this yard including a group 3 at Curragh last year when beating the likes off mooniesta and power under me but struggled in the group one champion stakes on his final start last year. Back into a group 3 here after a 359 day break, he's 1-2 on the AW with 7 wins over this distance, track I think will suit he goes well fresh and Oisin Murphy is booked to ride. MOUNT ATHOS I think will be the main danger. 1730 Lingfield- PHILOS 10/3 PHILOS - 1 point win is in search of the hatrick and I think he has the perfect opportunity here in what looks a weak race, he's the only course and distance winner in the field having won here lto when staying on gamely and he's 1lb lower for that with 5lb claimer Kaiya Fraser jumping in the saddle, a repeat of his last run should be enough to see him win and the yard do well here. ( 25% stike rate last 12 months) 1432 Chester- THE NU FORM WAY 9/1 EW 0.5 THE NU FORM WAY is 2 from 3 at this track both over course & distance and you can write off his last run earlier in the month when he was badly hampered and carried left early on after getting into a decent position, lost all his chances there and finished 9th but the third fourth and fifth have all already won nto and his start before that was a career best, could still be improving and I think he's still on a winnable mark, over priced and worth a eachway. If you fancy a bet tonight the US group is open https://t.me/ 2zq2_S4OXmEwMjNk 12:40 pm Newmarket - Star Of Mystery 11/8 (1 Point) 3:20 pm Windsor - Elnajmm 6/5 (4 Points
VIP Trackers today. 0.5 point EW on top two. 1 point wins for the bottom two. Looking forward to AL RIFFA running again looks a proper decent horse. I think MAGICAL SPIRITS for should see the price at 4/1 not 10/1 so good EW value there and worth chancing. I have a Doncaster NAP from Ray for this evening. I might post one or two more but will be later this afternoon guys. Have a nice day everyone and good luck ❤️
2:25 pm Curragh - Commanche Falls 11/8(3 Points) 5:20 pm Windsor - Kimnkate 1/1(1 Point 1405 Cartmel- MARSHALLED 13/2 & ARTHUR'S QUAY 14/1 EW There's a few lto winners in this and a few irish raiders but following the two Haslam runners ARTHURS QUEY & MARSHALLED, the latter was a four time winner for his previous yard over in Ireland before getting off the mark at the fourth attempt for his new stable over 2m4f at Newcastle winning well, went up 6lb and was upped in class on his next start when beaten by a nose over course & distance and although up a further 5lb here I think he could have more to come for this yard, conditions suit the cheekpeices go back on and a repeat of that last run should see him go close. ARTHUR'S QUAY moved to this yard back in September after a poor start to his career winning once in a maiden over hurdles from 17 starts in Ireland but finished a decent third on his first two starts for this stable with multiple winners coming out the latter of those and he banged in a quick hatrick shortly after with the form of that stacking up well too, finished second in a two horse race after and hasn't been in the same form since but he stayed on strongly lto over 2m 1f to get 4th here giving the impression this step up in trip will suit and Mclernon retains the ride who's won twice on board, still 8lb above his last winning mark but I think he's slightly over priced at 14s. 1625 Uttoxeter- GETAREASON 8/1 EW GETAREASON got off the mark at the sixth attempt for this yard when scoring over 2m4f at Hexham off a 11lb higher mark back in May 2021, didn't build on that on his six starts after and had a wind op in-between but he finished the year off with back to back wins off a marks 1lb and 2lb lower than this and he didn't run to badly when 5th of 7 lto back from 441 days off. Should be able to improve having got that run under his belt, he's close to his last winning mark, he drops in class, all three hurdle wins have come over this distance and Moscrop knows him well (2 wins & 3 places from 14), worth a eachway at 8s.
Awful day yesterday We try again VIP WEDNESDAY Welcome new members! Will be quite busy today. We have NAP - ALABAMA later at Tipperary 5.05 scroll up for the write up I sent it on Monday. Few trackers today, HAVANA PUSEY runs in the 7.25, Ste has already tipped a horse so we will leave this one today. I think shes too short in price for the step up in class anyhow. The second is the NAP and the third is ROYAL DEBUT who has shown nothing for a long time - he’s not a backable option tonight in my opinion and at best we would hope for is a place. Looking at the form in that race did lead me to TANTASTIC who I have wrote up below: TODAYS TIPS: 6.30 BATH - 4 places paid with Sky AMAZONIAN DREAM 10/3 - 1 point win (10/3 avalaible on 365 and all others it’s 9/4 on SKY) RUBY COTTAGE 12/1 - (cover bet) AMAZONIAN DREAM and Swift Asset both arrive on the back of second places with Swift Asset dropping down in grade today. AMAZONIAN DREAM really caught my eye under Oisin Murphy LTO and finished strongly from way off the pace albeit with the benefit of the rail. Well drawn and off the same mark. Already a C&D winner might be able to go in today at a nice price Loose change saver for RUBY COTTAGE who herself is a 3 time C&D winner. Off for nearly a year, this is the only course she has had success at. I think she has placed in around 80% of her runs at Bath so I wouldn’t completely rule her out from a decent draw with a talented 3lb claimer on running near bottom weight. One to watch and one to look out for here at Bath - if not today, she will win here again soon. 5.15 MUSSELBURGH - TANTASTIC 7/1 - 3 paid 365 - 11/2 - 4 paid Sky. - .05 EW This horse is as short as 11/2 on 365 so I feel 7/1 is good value. Catch with this horse is that it’s not won a race in 20+ outings. If you remember last month we landed a 16/1 winner with STALLONE, this horse TANTASTIC ran in that race finishing 5th, keeps running to a decent standard of late and today looks a good as opportunity as any to end a long losing streak. Some of these are in shocking form in the race so it’s hard to see TANTASTIC outside the top four if the horse can overcome the stall 1 draw. Good luck all Nate
VIP TUESDAY Will be posting a few longshots shortly. Won’t be too many bets today guys. Winner of roast comp announced today. Fancy two of Buicks rides at Wolves today. Have VALUE ADDED listed as a ‘monster’ in my tracker, needs to come out from under the bed today as he’s been anything but so far…. 3.05 WOLVES - VALUE ADDED 9/4 - 1 point This horse went into the tracker instantly after debut run at Wolves at Newbury in a class4, he was then thrown in at class 2 and ran well to finish 5th before another second at Windsor when finishing ahead of 4/11 fav Cherry and denied by a progressive looking Decoration. This horse will not remain a maiden for long competiting at this level. Lots of money have come for the now favourite but VALUE ADDED at 9/4 is a good price for a horse thats been unlucky. Needs Buick to ride prominently to win in my opinion. 4.15 WOLVES - SHARP POWER 11/10 - 1 point win Very hard to look past today. Won readily last week beating the likes of Airshow and rthe Might Gurka, doesn’t have a penatly for that effort so is definitley the one to beat with Buick booked for the ride.
3. 3.55 PONTEFRACT - IT JUST TAKES TIMES 13/2 - 0.5 EW 13/2 on 365 with 3 places paid whereas only 11/2 on paddy power with 2 places. Definitley worth an EW here if this one can bounce back. Very poor LTO, uncharacteristic for the horse who is usually a model of consistency. He was bumped at the start last time and didn’t like that - looked like he essenstially spit the dummy out and didn’t want to race. 2.30 WOLVES - PARADISE ROW 11/1 - 0.5 EW - 4 paid Ran well on all 3 starts culminating ijng in a win at Chelmsford LTO. This is a more competitive race but good value for an EW bet. The trip should be perfect and I’m expecting a least a place. 5.55 WOLVES - CRYSTAL DAWN 7/1 - 0.5 EW - 4 paid 50 days off after finishing 2nd here at Wolves. C&D winner that looks well overpriced based on his form here at Wolves. 4 paid and good EW value. Worth trying today. GOOD LUCK ALL. NATE One from Ste guys for tonight ✅ 1930 Brighton- LORD CLENAGHCASTLE 28/1 EW Think LORD CLENAHCASTLE is slightly over priced here having his first run for a new yard, he was quite decent when he was with Gary Moore winning his first two starts with his debut coming over this CD and picked up another 4 wins from 21 runs, they all come in between 2017 & 2020 (missed the whole of 2019) & he then had a massive 674 days off before a runner up at 33/1 on debut for his new yard at Lingfield in September last year, took 7 attempts to get off the mark for that yard coming at kempton off a mark of 48 with a 7lb claimer in the saddle but he didn't back that up in 4 starts after and was subsequently moved onto this yard, very well handicapped on old form having won off a mark of 79 at Epsom in a class 4 back in 2018 and now contests a class 6 off a mark of 46 at a course he clearly likes having gained 2 wins and 2 places from 6 visits, hard to know what to expect on stable debut here but this is a weak race and if he retains any of his ability then he could go well at a big price here and I think Kieran O'Neil is a good jockey booking for this, worth a small eachway and I'd look for the extra places.
