Cheltenham naps

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If someone held a gun to my head and asked me the most likely winner at the Festival then I would say Mr Henderson’s Sprinter Sacre. So he would be my nap in terms of giving the most likely winner. He really does have it all in his locker and the way that he jumps, travels and then quickens at the business end of a race is truly exceptional. Now a year stronger and more mature expect him to both devour the Cheltenham hill and his opponents in the Arkle.

However, in terms of best current value I would nominate Chill in the Freddie Winter. This is a very good horse as proved by his win at Leopardstown over Christmas whilst there are valid excuses for a couple of his defeats. This has been the plan for the horse for a while and he prepped beautifully for this at Naas Last weekend (when given a Considerate ride with a capital ‘C’). 25/1 looks really good value to my eye and believe me when I say that this is one Chill that you want to catch.
 
SIZING EUROPE in the Champion Chase.
The mighty Tom Segal said it all when he said he should be 1/3 and not 11/10, he has it all.
 
Sir Barney I take your points on board over Sprinter Sacre and he will be massively hard to beat but I can't see why anyone would NAP him or choose him over Sizing Europe at roughly the same price.

Sizing Europe has done it all. Proven at Cheltenham and given a beating recently to his nearest market rival and is in great form. The horse is quality.

Whereas Sprinter has beaten Peddlers (trainer says wasn't right - not sure about this) and French Opera where I agree he did look impressive but against what opposition? Hendo and Geragthy comments about the horse do make hairs on your neck stand up.

This is just my opinion and I am no means an expert and you could prove me to be totally wrong.

I will certainly be taking Sprinter on in the Arkle (with PP's offer) but will not be looking elsewhere other than Sizing in the Champion.

Good luck and may we al have a great festival.
 
Agreed Ollie - Sprinter Sacre is an excellent talent, with a very high chance of winning, but the others could improve/he could have a bad day. Sizing doesn't seem to have bad days, and he's beaten all the competition fair and square and comfortably.
 
Ollie, there are certainly going to be some ‘shorties’ at the Festival this term what with Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe, Big Bucks, Quevega and Hurricane Fly all odds-on or bordering on such a price. I would still nominate the first named though as the most likely winner at the Festival. Would never normally say such a thing about an animal running in a novice chase but to me he has everything and with his likely rivals decreasing by the day don’t think the opposition looks particularly tough.

Sizing Europe is a true champion who has deffo ‘been there and done it’ and the most likely winner of this terms Champion Chase but I would not want to be taking current quotes of Evens re him (or anything else in the race as I think those bookie chappies have got the race about right). Mr Henderson’s Finian’s Rainbow, with just 2 runs outside of novice company, would be the somewhat ‘unknown quantity’ but whether he can trouble Sizing Europe would be a totally different question.

Interestingly re Sprinter Sacre I see that Paddy Power are now quoting him at 7/2 to win the 2013 Champion Chase. Any takers???
 
My NAPS for each day, And My thoughts on the four Championship races...

Day One - Al Ferof Arkle Challenge Trophy - Horses for courses, More suited to Cheltenham than Sprinter Sacre and if he can serve it up to Sprinter Sacre all the way round I doubt there will be many finishing quicker. Sprinter Sacre looks a monster at his fences and if he is to win the Arkle it will be because hes a superior jumper to the majority. Im quite keen on Al Ferofs chances though, Sprinter Sacre as been very impressive on solid flat tracks but he ran off a fast pace last year and when he met the rising ground he look to Me like he didn't like it. His class saw him into third and to win an Arkle I think you need the guts and stamina to get home. I think Al Ferof ticks all the boxes

Day Two - Simonsig Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle - This race is made for Simonsig, Hes looked more a stayer with speed than a through speed horse. The further they go the better He'll be IMO. Boston Bob looks the best of the rest but I don't think he possesses the class or tools to trouble Simonsig. Wise decision from Henderson and connections

Day Three - Peddlers Cross Jewson Novices Chase - Im quite a taken as to why he isn't taking his chance in the Arkle, Hes another one Horses for Courses as he as proven himself many a time around Cheltenham. To run a horse as good as Hurricane Fly to within a length and a quarter in the Champion Hurdle is solid form and until he blundered at Kempton he'd done nothing wrong over his fences. I don't think Sprinter Sacre would have put 16 lengths between himself and Peddlers at Cheltenham and I think he had a brilliant chance in the Arkle. But Im not going to doubt Donald McCain and I cannot see anything in this field that is going to trouble Peddlers, Sir Des Champs as been impressive and it looks like Bog Warrior will take his chance here aswell if the betting is anything to go by. 2 miles/2 1/2miles is no problem for Peddlers and I think he'll be very hard to beat here

Day Four - Balder Succes Triumph Hurdle - I don't think theres much to choose between the Alan King pair Balder Sucess and Grumeti. Grumeti as a stronger form but I think Balder Sucess is open to further improvement and looks very intresting at the prices, I'd rather take the 8/1 Balder Succes than the 9/2 going about for Grumeti who I think could be beaten by a few of these here including Pearl Swan who was unlucky last time they met IMO. Balder Succes hasn't been extended this year yet and from reports from Alan King's yard hes struggling to split them, Tough choice for Choc I think.

As for the four Championship races, Hurricane Fly will be tough to beat. Zarkandar was My antepost but hes got alot to do to trouble the Fly and an A1 Binocular will push Hurricane Fly all the way. I think by the end of Tuesday The Fly will be a dual Champion Hurdler...

Sizing Europe is head and shoulders above anything in the race, Form is rock solid, Very good record around Cheltenham hes My NAP of the week for the four Championship races...

Big Bucks will win but I don't think it'll be by much as I can see Thousand Stars and Oscar Whisky serving it up to him at the business end, Weather they'll get to the bottom of Big Bucks is another thing but I don't think hes as stonewall as he's been in previous years gone by

Long Run is a worthy favourite and with the news of Kauto Star in recent days I think its looking abit of a cakewalk, I think everyone would love to see the old boy Kauto win his third Gold Cup but it was a tough ask before his injury nevermind now. Grands Crus is an intresting dimension. Yes hes a novice chaser but hes not really a novice animal. He's raced in a Championship race at Cheltenham before and he will be used to the hustle and bustle he can certainly run at a Championship pace but weather he can jump at a fence at Gold Cup pace is the million dollar question, If he can then I think he will give Long Run a BIG run for his money...
 
Well the one I'm most wanting to win to cash in my 5-1 and 4-1 taken after last year's Festival is Hurricane Fly and I don't think the opposition is really going to worry him. Binocular to finish second is likely given Zarkander has a hell of a lot still to prove and he'll need to step up from his last run to worry the Hurricane.

Avoiding the shorties I backed Boston Bob today for the Albert Bartlett at 9-2. Of course we don't know for certain his target but if the money on the exchanges is indicative, as it was with Peddlers Cross, I fully expect Boston Bob to line up in Fridays race. This horse is a 'beast' and delivered a savage performance on Irish Champion Hurdle day giving away the weight he did against very good horses and I don't see a horse in England this year that can beat him.
 
i am trying to think of the most likely champions in the four chmapionship races to get beat and I am struggling!
bearing in mind that no more than 2 of these champions have retained their crowns the following year then it is almost certain that 1 or more will fail to do so this year.

if I had to take them on then I would maybe say Binocular in the Champion Hurdle and Somersby in the Champion Chase. I have taken the 20/1 about all 4 retaining though just in case!
 
-Supreme-Montbazon.Getting better and better every time he runs.
Arkle-Sprinter Sacre.Monster Talent,and will win very easily

Lay of the week
Jewson's-Peddlers Cross.I cant for the life of me fathom out why he is favourite for this after his(supposed) interrupted buildup and his mediocre chase form.If someone could enlighten me that would be appreciated.
 
Dancingbraveforever said:
-Supreme-Montbazon.Getting better and better every time he runs.
Arkle-Sprinter Sacre.Monster Talent,and will win very easily

Lay of the week
Jewson's-Peddlers Cross.I cant for the life of me fathom out why he is favourite for this after his(supposed) interrupted buildup and his mediocre chase form.If someone could enlighten me that would be appreciated.
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I agreewith you on montbazon, just seems to get better with every run, should at least get close! <ok>
 
I realy like Noble Prince in the Ryanair, who was a course and distance winner when winning the Jewson last year. Hes been campaigned over the wrong trip over in Ireland, he isn't a 2 miler and never has been. He needs 2m5+, to be seen at his best. He proved that last year and I expect him to prove that again:biggrin:
 
Dancingbraveforever said:
-Supreme-Montbazon.Getting better and better every time he runs.
Arkle-Sprinter Sacre.Monster Talent,and will win very easily

Lay of the week
Jewson's-Peddlers Cross.I cant for the life of me fathom out why he is favourite for this after his(supposed) interrupted buildup and his mediocre chase form.If someone could enlighten me that would be appreciated.
Click to expand...


Care to tell us who should be favourite for the Jewson then?

For Me Peddlers Cross is the best horse in the race, Ran no sort of race at Kempton after nearly taking the first fence with him before that He hadn't put a foot wrong over fences. I think another reason you'll find him favourite for this race is because of his history around Cheltenham and lets be fair looking at the opposition who would you back to beat him?

Al Ferof and Blackstairmountain will go for the Arkle, Bog Warrior isn't even going to Cheltenham. First Lieutenant will go for the RSA along with Invictus. Sir Des Champs isn't a definite runner in the race and Silvinanco Conti was touted as an RSA horses before they realised he wasn't good enough to win that, Of the two Nicholls runners Cristal Bonus looks his bet for the race. Theres the likes of For Non Stop with not bad form running Al Ferof to half a length and Zaynar who doesn't appear to be in any sort of form this season. As for the rest its a pretty average looking race if Im being honest I'd be amazed if Peddlers Cross isn't good enough to win this
 
I agree with Istabraq re Peddler's cross, although after the gutless withdrawal from the Arkle I hope he gets beat. The Kempton form can be ignored because of the mistake - also it is unwise to draw too many conclusions from a virtual match, despite the obvious talent of Sprinter Sacre. PC is certainly the obvious favourite.
 
Dancingbraveforever said:
-Supreme-Montbazon.Getting better and better every time he runs.
Arkle-Sprinter Sacre.Monster Talent,and will win very easily

Lay of the week
Jewson's-Peddlers Cross.I cant for the life of me fathom out why he is favourite for this after his(supposed) interrupted buildup and his mediocre chase form.If someone could enlighten me that would be appreciated.
Click to expand...

Spot on!!
 
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