Chaps, we've not had a great turnout for the handicap preview with just 4 of us with write ups however, i'll post it anyway and hope to see a winner in here at some point.
BOSTON BOB:
CLOSE BROTHERS:
I like the composition of the race because what i primarily look for in Cheltenham horses, in handicaps at least, is successful past course form at the Festival. It’s by far the biggest factor for me when picking a race apart. Success seems to breed success at Cheltenham. It’s a reasonably unique course with races usually run at a proper end to end gallop. Totally different to what a lot of the racing is like in the UK and Ireland for the rest of the season.
So, with past course form being such a big factor in my mind, the one that absolutely jumped off the page is Barney Dwan and he’s my strongest handicap bet of the week. Currently 8/1.
Second off 143 in a good Pertemps last year when Presenting Percy landed a plot. He dealt with everything else in that race really effectively. Jury Duty back in third offering some substance to the race. I was very taken with him that day and had him in my notes for this year ever since.
He gets in this off 143 which i think is fantastic because it offers loads of potential that he’s been under rated over the larger obstacles. Going back to his first start over fences, he was badly in need of a run and clearly was nursed round in an educational manner to finish behind Ballyoptic and the only horse to beat Black Corton over fences, Elegant Escape. Just the type of mark controlling performance we see year after year from these novice hurdlers that have graduated to chasing. The next two runs were both wins in class 4’s against reasonable horses but clearly aimed at keeping his mark high enough to get in but low enough to land a handicap this week. Perfect work from FOB. He’s done a great job for the owners.
The only other horse to have previously run very well at the Festival is Ibis Du Rhea but that was off a lower mark in the Martin Pipe a couple of years ago and his performance 12 months ago means i’m happy to ignore him for betting purposes.
Once you get past those two, you have some horses that have run at the festival but done nothing or ones like the fav, De Plotting Shed, who’ve never run here. Although i like that ones profile, i don’t like taking 5/1 about a horse at this course that i don’t know likes the racing style of Cheltenham.
Barney Dwan 8/1
STICK:
Fred Winter:
The Fred Winter is one of the more recent additions and really is for juveniles not quite up to Triumph standard if we are honest. It is proving to be quite a “trends” race already. French breds have dominated, Nicholls, Pipe and Elliott have good records and there are a few marker trials.
One of those trials is the Adonis which was won by Redicean who understandably bypasses this for the Triumph. The runner up however does run here and that is the filly MALAYA. Fillies had a good record in the early runnings and this one goes in the Imperial Cup o Saturday before the Festival. If she were to win there she would automatically go to the top of my list for this race and therefore is possibly worth a bet NRNB prior to Saturday. She is trained by Paul Nicholls which is a positive. My concern about her is that she was pretty well beaten by Redicean, if she were to win here Redicean would look a Triumph shoo-in.
Nicholls has the ante post favourite in ACT OF VALOUR who ticks so many boxes. He has impressive flat form, has been given the minimum three outings to get in and is obviously still improving and could have something in hand.
Others with the positive of good flat form are LOOK MY WAY and NIGHT OF GLORY, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing either of them although neither tick the box of being French bred.
Harry Skelton was pressed by Chappers for this years “Superb Story”, he wisely said there wasn’t one but did then mention NUBE NEGRA favourably. He is very short for my liking and I think too much has been made of his facile victory in his prep run when 30-100.
I really like OISTRAKH LE NOIR and every time I look the price seems to have dropped again. He is French bred, comes from a yard that really know the time of day and is improving at a rapid rate of knots. He will be able to sit up with the pace and is certain to run a big race.
THE KING OF MAY was a close third in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial. Second that day was a match fit Act Of Valour who he reopposes on 5lb better terms. He has a very obvious chance and is a nice price. He is not one to dismiss lightly.
The selection however is Irish raider MITOUCHKA. He is entered in the Triumph but looks sure to take his chance here instead and he ticks nearly every box. He has very good flat form in the book, is a French bred and comes from a yard that has a good record in the race. He may be a little exposed but he really does look to be still improving with each run and I think he can put his track experience to good use.
Two bets for me then. MITOUCHKA to win at 14/1 and MALAYA at 16/1 NRNB prior to the Imperial.
BOSTON BOB:
CLOSE BROTHERS:
I like the composition of the race because what i primarily look for in Cheltenham horses, in handicaps at least, is successful past course form at the Festival. It’s by far the biggest factor for me when picking a race apart. Success seems to breed success at Cheltenham. It’s a reasonably unique course with races usually run at a proper end to end gallop. Totally different to what a lot of the racing is like in the UK and Ireland for the rest of the season.
So, with past course form being such a big factor in my mind, the one that absolutely jumped off the page is Barney Dwan and he’s my strongest handicap bet of the week. Currently 8/1.
Second off 143 in a good Pertemps last year when Presenting Percy landed a plot. He dealt with everything else in that race really effectively. Jury Duty back in third offering some substance to the race. I was very taken with him that day and had him in my notes for this year ever since.
He gets in this off 143 which i think is fantastic because it offers loads of potential that he’s been under rated over the larger obstacles. Going back to his first start over fences, he was badly in need of a run and clearly was nursed round in an educational manner to finish behind Ballyoptic and the only horse to beat Black Corton over fences, Elegant Escape. Just the type of mark controlling performance we see year after year from these novice hurdlers that have graduated to chasing. The next two runs were both wins in class 4’s against reasonable horses but clearly aimed at keeping his mark high enough to get in but low enough to land a handicap this week. Perfect work from FOB. He’s done a great job for the owners.
The only other horse to have previously run very well at the Festival is Ibis Du Rhea but that was off a lower mark in the Martin Pipe a couple of years ago and his performance 12 months ago means i’m happy to ignore him for betting purposes.
Once you get past those two, you have some horses that have run at the festival but done nothing or ones like the fav, De Plotting Shed, who’ve never run here. Although i like that ones profile, i don’t like taking 5/1 about a horse at this course that i don’t know likes the racing style of Cheltenham.
Barney Dwan 8/1
STICK:
Fred Winter:
The Fred Winter is one of the more recent additions and really is for juveniles not quite up to Triumph standard if we are honest. It is proving to be quite a “trends” race already. French breds have dominated, Nicholls, Pipe and Elliott have good records and there are a few marker trials.
One of those trials is the Adonis which was won by Redicean who understandably bypasses this for the Triumph. The runner up however does run here and that is the filly MALAYA. Fillies had a good record in the early runnings and this one goes in the Imperial Cup o Saturday before the Festival. If she were to win there she would automatically go to the top of my list for this race and therefore is possibly worth a bet NRNB prior to Saturday. She is trained by Paul Nicholls which is a positive. My concern about her is that she was pretty well beaten by Redicean, if she were to win here Redicean would look a Triumph shoo-in.
Nicholls has the ante post favourite in ACT OF VALOUR who ticks so many boxes. He has impressive flat form, has been given the minimum three outings to get in and is obviously still improving and could have something in hand.
Others with the positive of good flat form are LOOK MY WAY and NIGHT OF GLORY, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing either of them although neither tick the box of being French bred.
Harry Skelton was pressed by Chappers for this years “Superb Story”, he wisely said there wasn’t one but did then mention NUBE NEGRA favourably. He is very short for my liking and I think too much has been made of his facile victory in his prep run when 30-100.
I really like OISTRAKH LE NOIR and every time I look the price seems to have dropped again. He is French bred, comes from a yard that really know the time of day and is improving at a rapid rate of knots. He will be able to sit up with the pace and is certain to run a big race.
THE KING OF MAY was a close third in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial. Second that day was a match fit Act Of Valour who he reopposes on 5lb better terms. He has a very obvious chance and is a nice price. He is not one to dismiss lightly.
The selection however is Irish raider MITOUCHKA. He is entered in the Triumph but looks sure to take his chance here instead and he ticks nearly every box. He has very good flat form in the book, is a French bred and comes from a yard that has a good record in the race. He may be a little exposed but he really does look to be still improving with each run and I think he can put his track experience to good use.
Two bets for me then. MITOUCHKA to win at 14/1 and MALAYA at 16/1 NRNB prior to the Imperial.
