Chaps, we've not had a great turnout for the handicap preview with just 4 of us with write ups however, i'll post it anyway and hope to see a winner in here at some point. BOSTON BOB: CLOSE BROTHERS: I like the composition of the race because what i primarily look for in Cheltenham horses, in handicaps at least, is successful past course form at the Festival. It’s by far the biggest factor for me when picking a race apart. Success seems to breed success at Cheltenham. It’s a reasonably unique course with races usually run at a proper end to end gallop. Totally different to what a lot of the racing is like in the UK and Ireland for the rest of the season. So, with past course form being such a big factor in my mind, the one that absolutely jumped off the page is Barney Dwan and he’s my strongest handicap bet of the week. Currently 8/1. Second off 143 in a good Pertemps last year when Presenting Percy landed a plot. He dealt with everything else in that race really effectively. Jury Duty back in third offering some substance to the race. I was very taken with him that day and had him in my notes for this year ever since. He gets in this off 143 which i think is fantastic because it offers loads of potential that he’s been under rated over the larger obstacles. Going back to his first start over fences, he was badly in need of a run and clearly was nursed round in an educational manner to finish behind Ballyoptic and the only horse to beat Black Corton over fences, Elegant Escape. Just the type of mark controlling performance we see year after year from these novice hurdlers that have graduated to chasing. The next two runs were both wins in class 4’s against reasonable horses but clearly aimed at keeping his mark high enough to get in but low enough to land a handicap this week. Perfect work from FOB. He’s done a great job for the owners. The only other horse to have previously run very well at the Festival is Ibis Du Rhea but that was off a lower mark in the Martin Pipe a couple of years ago and his performance 12 months ago means i’m happy to ignore him for betting purposes. Once you get past those two, you have some horses that have run at the festival but done nothing or ones like the fav, De Plotting Shed, who’ve never run here. Although i like that ones profile, i don’t like taking 5/1 about a horse at this course that i don’t know likes the racing style of Cheltenham. Barney Dwan 8/1 STICK: Fred Winter: The Fred Winter is one of the more recent additions and really is for juveniles not quite up to Triumph standard if we are honest. It is proving to be quite a “trends” race already. French breds have dominated, Nicholls, Pipe and Elliott have good records and there are a few marker trials. One of those trials is the Adonis which was won by Redicean who understandably bypasses this for the Triumph. The runner up however does run here and that is the filly MALAYA. Fillies had a good record in the early runnings and this one goes in the Imperial Cup o Saturday before the Festival. If she were to win there she would automatically go to the top of my list for this race and therefore is possibly worth a bet NRNB prior to Saturday. She is trained by Paul Nicholls which is a positive. My concern about her is that she was pretty well beaten by Redicean, if she were to win here Redicean would look a Triumph shoo-in. Nicholls has the ante post favourite in ACT OF VALOUR who ticks so many boxes. He has impressive flat form, has been given the minimum three outings to get in and is obviously still improving and could have something in hand. Others with the positive of good flat form are LOOK MY WAY and NIGHT OF GLORY, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing either of them although neither tick the box of being French bred. Harry Skelton was pressed by Chappers for this years “Superb Story”, he wisely said there wasn’t one but did then mention NUBE NEGRA favourably. He is very short for my liking and I think too much has been made of his facile victory in his prep run when 30-100. I really like OISTRAKH LE NOIR and every time I look the price seems to have dropped again. He is French bred, comes from a yard that really know the time of day and is improving at a rapid rate of knots. He will be able to sit up with the pace and is certain to run a big race. THE KING OF MAY was a close third in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial. Second that day was a match fit Act Of Valour who he reopposes on 5lb better terms. He has a very obvious chance and is a nice price. He is not one to dismiss lightly. The selection however is Irish raider MITOUCHKA. He is entered in the Triumph but looks sure to take his chance here instead and he ticks nearly every box. He has very good flat form in the book, is a French bred and comes from a yard that has a good record in the race. He may be a little exposed but he really does look to be still improving with each run and I think he can put his track experience to good use. Two bets for me then. MITOUCHKA to win at 14/1 and MALAYA at 16/1 NRNB prior to the Imperial.
TWARD: Ultima This race can often be a gruelling contest and it takes a proper stayer to get the trip, although a horse will need the basic speed to go the gallop aswell. Classy types have done well in the recent runnings with The Druids Nephew, Holywell and Un Temp Pour Tout the last 2 years. Novice and 2nd season chasers have a very strong record in this race, with my original selection Snow Falcon now scratched the next horse on my radar is Vintage Clouds. He ran in this race as a novice last season and was plugging on in 6th when approaching the 2nd last before tipping up, he had a wide berth most of the trip and although not inconvenienced by good to soft ground, he will much appreciate the easy conditions that will be on offer on Day 1 this time round. Although he is 7lbs higher this time round, his jumping is more polished and given the likely stamina test that is in store tomorrow, he will thrive in the conditions. Another horse on the upgrade and to keep on side is Knight of Noir. Again, he is a 2nd season novice chaser. What is notable is that he went off 4/7 against Black Corton but comprehensively beaten into 2nd. He has then improved on his next 2 chase starts with a close 2nd and then finally getting off the mark last time out. He was given a chase rating of 141 after this race, 6 lbs lower than what he has ahieved over hurdles.
Chaninbar: Coral Cup: Schoolboy error picking this race as there are 87 still standing at the time of writing. In order to whitltle it down a bit I've not given much consideration to Mullins (17 entries), Elliott (6) and Nicholls (6). I've no idea what they're going to run and I can't be arsed going through all those when they may not line up. Besides in the case of Mullins (Carter Mackay) and Elliott (Blow by Blow) both my fancies are running in other races if the trainers are to be believed. It goes without saying though that whatever lines up for these trainers must be given due consideration. Although low weights aren't the be all and all they once were I can't see 10lb of improvement in the first 10 in field. Initially Burbank (20/1) stood out. His very good 4th in last year's Ballymore together with some solid runs this year's marks him out as a potential improver. However the likely soft ground tempers my enthusiasm. My fancies are Springtown Lake (33/1), Spiritofthegames (16/1) and Red Indian (33/1). Springtown Lake is well thought of by Phillip Hobbs, has decent novice form and acts on the track. The yard have been a bit quiet lately but I'm expecting a big run. Spiritofthegames' Betfair Hurdle staying on 3rd suggests this step up in trip will definitely help. Soft ground no issue either. 16/1. Red Indian (33/1) looks unexposed to me. Although he's put in some decent runs this season, his close second to Golden Birthday last May is particularly eye catching given what that horse has gone on to do over hurdles and on the flat. If you're a sucker for a story the Limited Reserve (20/1) for Christian Williams could fit the bill. This was the trainer's first ever runner and it will be his fists festival entrant. He's in good form and win lto. He got put up 5lb for that though and he won't have James Bowen's 5lb claim as he did that day. Finally it would be remiss of me not to consider the JP plot angle. Of his, Bleu et Rouge surely goes for the County Hurdle and has his fair share of weight. River Frost doesn't look obviously well in, which leads me to Dream Berry (25/1). No run this season which is a negative but very good form last year. Have Jonjo and JP had this as the plan all along? Is this the one they have earmarked for Jonjo junior to rack up his first festival triumph? We'll know around 3pm Wednesday. So there you have it 87 runners whittled down to around 6. Cheers Chan.
