By Stuart Jones — published 7th March 2024
Timeform analyst Stuart Jones reveals which favourites he's keen to oppose at the Cheltenham Festival.
Embassy Gardens (National Hunt Novices' Chase)
There’s little doubt that Embassy Gardens is potentially tailor-made for the extreme test the National Hunt Chase offers, most impressive when winning both his starts over fences so far, but quite whether he’s done enough to justify being as short as 2/1 for the final race of day one is very much debatable.
Embassy Gardens is better than he could show over hurdles, but the fact remains that his form in that discipline was still some way inferior to several of those behind him in the betting for this, whilst it remains concerning that he essentially bombed out on each of his two previous starts the top level.
With the likes of Corbetts Cross and Salvador Ziggy very likely opponents, Embassy Gardens looks one to oppose at current odds.
Minella Indo (Cross Country Chase)
It’s not hard to see why Minella Indo heads the market for this year’s Cross Country Chase, a former Gold Cup winner having just his second start in this discipline, but prices around the 15/8 mark look cramped given the potential opposition.
Henry de Bromhead’s veteran took well to the unique test when fourth to Latenightpass back in December, but, with a couple of runs under his belt, it was a touch disappointing he couldn’t see things out as well as a big move on the home turn promised.
He’s obviously entitled to improve for that experience, though it’s not like consistency has been a forte of his in recent seasons and he still needs to prove he retains enough ability to trouble the Gordon Elliott-trained trio of Galvin, Delta Works and Coko Beach. Essentially, he looks a very opposable favourite.
Galopin des Champs (Cheltenham Gold Cup)
Perhaps the trickiest of the quartet to justify opposing as last year’s winner bounced back from an underwhelming reappearance with back-to-back Grade 1 successes at Leopardstown, comfortably reversing Punchestown form with Fastorslow when the pair met last time.
That said, his jumping wasn’t nearly so polished as it had been at the Christmas meeting and, when taking into account his errors at Punchestown and the early scares he had in last year’s Gold Cup, that area is something of a concern when faced with taking the short prices available.
Granted it’s hardly a vintage renewal, but Fastorslow still provides viable opposition having already beaten him twice in the past, whilst Shishkin would more than likely have won the King George had he stood up and, on his best form/behaviour, would have a serious shout of upsetting the favourite.
Dinoblue (Mares' Chase)
Unsurprisingly, it’s a pair of Willie Mullins-trained runners that head the market for a race he’s won two of the three previous renewals, with last year’s Grand Annual runner-up Dinoblue a shade of odds-on with several firms. However, there are reasons to think she’s worth opposing at such prohibitive odds.
Firstly, her form is not all that superior to that of her stable Allegorie De Vassy and at that rival has proved on several occasions that she stays this far. Contrastingly, Dinoblue has had just the one previous start at the trip and, though a never-nearer fourth in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse, there are still some reservations about her truly relishing the stiff test at the trip this is likely to represent.
Throw in a couple of thriving sorts who are relative unknown quantities at the highest level in the shape of Limerick Lace and Brides Hill, and this begins to look quite a bit more competitive than the current betting suggests.