I've backed Laafi at 40/1 (boosted to 45) for the Supreme. If he runs Anzadam close today his price will tumble. If he wins, even more so.
I've been burnt too may times backing AP as I'm sure we all have, BUT, having watched TRANSMISSION on Saturday I looked at the Ultima prices and Bet 365 were biggest at 25/1 but NOT NRNB. Still they were adding a 25% bonus to the odds so I got suckered in. I do think it has a belting chance, no doubt some Irish horse with form figures of 00PUF0 will bolt up...
The McConnell winner on Saturday looked a decent bet for the Ultima in March. Moon D’Orange couldnt go with the field over the shorter trip and fell out the back of the TV. Made up the ground easily down the hill and powered up the hill to win as he liked. Not sure how much he’s gone up for that but looks a real player over the longer trip. Still has the negative Irish trained stat to overcome but 20/1 looks ok.
The Jukebox Man injured and misses the rest of the season... Tough luck to all concerned he looked a proper horse...
Only just catching up with the DRF racing from last weekend. Obviously the standout was Galopin Des Champ who was imperious and hard to see past him retaining his Gold Cup crown in March. The one I thought got very short shrift from itv’s ‘experts’ for a bit of a demolition job of the front was young O’Brien’s Solness. He absolutely destroyed the field in the 2 miler but post race it was all about how the others didnt perform to their best. Obviously El Fabiolo capsized early so we’ve no idea if he’d been involved in the finish. The Champion Chase is probably my favourite race of the festival where they go hell for leather from the off. Having Solness in the line up and tearing off from the front will definitely test the oppo’s jumping skills. Still available at 11/1 which isn’t a bad price for a horse which has won it’s last 2 Grade 1s.
Agree with those sentiments Chan - the time was very good too (fast by 5.6 seconds - even quicker than Majborough on Saturday who was fast by 1.5 seconds - those the only 2 races of the weekend that were faster than standard). I watched the Road To Cheltenham episode that reviewed the DRF and Ruby commented that the speed of Solness will set the race up perfectly for Jonbon at Cheltenham. I thought Marine Nationale ran his best race for a long time - might pick up the pieces if the Champion Chase falls apart again.
God help Jonbon backers then if Ruby has given it the thumbs up. I don't pay any attention to him at all giving his opinion as its mostly the same throwaway clichés they all use. He went through almost all of Mullins' runners in the bumper the other day and even gave special mention to his outsider Camaletta Vegaas being a likely winner. The one he glossed over? The winner - Bambino Fever, ridden by Jody Townend. There's a reason he's sponsored by Paddy Power.
I agree he is worse than Alex Hammond I just thought it an interesting observation and I probably agree with him.
It’s hugely ironic to me that 2 former NH jockey greats (Ruby - Paddy Power, AP - William Hill) who when they were riding communicated on many occasions they gave zero ****s for punters are now poster boys for bookmakers. I pay no attention to any of their ‘tips’. To be fair to Ruby his post race analysis of the jockeys provides decent insight at times but that’s as far as it goes. And don’t get me started on Mick Fitz . Fitzy’s punter insight involves going through the runners and then tipping the Seven Barrows inmate. Occasionally he’ll pick one out at a big price. Unfortunately his idea of a big price is 6/1
Could have kicked myself for not backing Solness the weekend. Seemingly every man and his dog was saying the ground had gone against it so i left the race alone with all those doubts cast. He will make it an interesting race from the front.
Yep hugely underrated imho. If he were in a different yard he’d be challenging for favoritism. It’s a lot closer between him and Jonbon on good ground than the market would have you believe. Jonbon’s biggest test since El Fabiolo in the Arkle.
Times are always an interesting discussion and I agree that Solness put up an exceptional time. What hasn't been factored into that is the state of the ground on the second day. By the end of racing they were running wide trying to find unpoached ground.
Could Lossiemouth end up in the Mares hurdle, I wonder? I see she is 4/1 second favourite in the market for it and Brighterdaysahead is a shades off odds on for the event. Look to the Champion Hurdle and Brighterdays is 4/1 second favourite behind Con Hill, where Lossiemouth is third favourite at 5/1. Given there isn't a whole lot between them in the market should they both go to the Champion Hurdle, it makes the Mares betting market seem a bit skewed. After her fall Sunday and with State Man seemingly looking back to himself again, I just wonder if Willie will pop her in there. She is definitely value if so. Brighterdaysahead is extremely talented but I think that win lto is not a true reflection of solid form and I also feel she will be better up a distance so I feel there wouldn't necessarily be a lot between them. Just a thought to ponder.
That 4/1 Lossiemouth for the Mares Hurdle is without NRNB so you have to factor that in. The best you can get NRNB is 5/4. I'd prefer Golden Ace at the prices in the hope that a return to Cheltenham in the spring will re-ignite her flame.
Yeah, sorry. I forgot to mention that. I'm still thinking it would be worth the risk. Have the Elliott team kind of forced there hand with Brighterdaysahead missing the weekend action ? I'm thinking they must go Champion Hurdle with her now based on what they saw lto. We know Willie amd connections will opt for the most winnable race or as many races to win as he can. He has a Champ hurdle horse in State Man, almost guaranteed place money. They know already Lossiemouth will need to improve vastly to challenge Con Hill based on there last encounter. I could be off the mark but I'm pretty sure after her fall as well that Lossiemouth will be Mares bound and go off a very short price. Yeah, Golden Ace form last year I see it but this year, absolutely couldn't give her away to me. Good luck though.
I've had a very small e/w poke on the Tizzards' Alexei for the Supreme at 40/1. Owned by Brocade Racing, he is 2 from 2 over hurdles and is entered in a listed novices hurdle at Exeter on Sunday. I've no doubt Kopek des Bordes will be winning the supreme but I like the way Alexei goes about his business and if he wins Sunday his price will contract.
