I've gone and placed a Lucky 15 on a Mullins love-festival on day 1: Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen, Annie Power. Why not ...................
Now that were only just over 2 weeks to go before the Festival starts, what is your Ante Post winners and losers? In terms of value. Winners: Vibrato Valtat - 25/1 Arkle Carlingford Lough - 25/1 Gold Cup Losers: Taquin Du Seuil - Gold Cup Champagne West - RSA Value at Risk - Neptune
Not many positives in my portfolio tward ..................... but these are all shorter now: Karezak 25/1 ew Triumph, Un Temps Pour Tout 16/1 World Hurdle, Sprinter Sacre 4/1 and 7/2 Champion Chase The others are either already sunk (El Namoose for the Supreme at 40s ew, not declared), running in another race (Don Cossack 33/1 Gold Cup, Vautour Arkle) or are still entered but look to have no chance (Sign Of A Victory in the Champion Hurdle, Kalkir in the Triumph). I also backed Lord Windemere at 12s for the Gold Cup and he is still that price, so I guess that one falls into the "1-1 score draw" category. Sprinter Sacre carries my biggest investment by far, the others are much smaller stakes.
I've definitely done a load of ante-post this year, which I've never done before...My mains winners and losers are as follows. Antepost looking sweet: Faugheen 7s right down to 3s. All in, as they say By far my biggest antepost as he's involved in several accas... UDS 10s down to 5/2. Also paired with Faugheen at 76/1 Djakadam 50s Champagne Fever 12s (QM) No More Heroes 16s Vautour 9/2 (JLT) Have in a ridiculous acca with Faugheen, UDS at over 209/1 Don Poli 12s (RSA) Douvan 7s Antepost looking not so sweet More of That 7/2 Fair few bets with this one sadly, not looking great but better vibes today I hear. Tell us More 20s (Neptune) Champagne Fever 20s (Gold Cup) Vautour 6s down to 4s for Arkle Fair few bets, doubled with Faugheen Pont Alexandre 14s Allez Colombieres 16s Tullow Tank JLT 10s, 8s Thunder and Roses 25s Ballycasey 14s Just for clarification some of the above, namely UDS and Faugheen were backed during the summer, hence the prices. When you lads were looking at Glorious Goodwood etc I was chancing who Willie would keep over hurdles and send over fences Mixed bag but if the right 2 on the first day can win it's been a good festival punting wise! Noticed a fair bit of movement in the Champion Bumper market today with Bordini. I've taken the 10s with Ladbrokes, as I think with Mullins bumper horses at this stage it's all about whose getting on the boat and it seems clear he is.
Nothing exciting for me as the only thing I have antepost is a Heinz struck before Christmas... Arkle - GODS OWN 14/1 Champ Hurdle - HURRICANE FLY 12/1 JLT - VALSEUR LIDO 6/1 Albert Bartlett - BLAKLION 10/1 RSA - KINGS PALACE 6/1 Gold Cup - BOBS WORTH 10/1
Losers: Taquin Du Slow - Gold Cup Deputy Dan - RSA Potential: Rock on Ruby, World Hurdle @ 50s ew And the following sporting win lucky 15: L'Ami Serge - Supreme - 6s TNO - Champion - 3s Champagne Fever - CC - 10s ROR - WH - 10s
Only done one AP bet so far this year (Dodging Bullets at a far from exciting 6/1) as I just don't think there's any value in these markets. Buuuut, as every year, i'm getting itchy punting fingers. With the NRNB concessions, Smad Place looks overpriced for the GC at 20/1. I'll probably back Many Clouds on the day, but despite getting 8lbs and a length beating off him in Jan, Smad Place might be capable of turning that around over 3m2f run at GC pace.
I can now report that I’ve had my first wager re the 2015 Cheltenham Festival. Surely, that deserves some sort of fanfare, pilgrims. It’s in the CHAPS Restaurant Barbados (sounds a decent eatery but I doubt if it’s up to the standard of the ‘top table’) Novices' Handicap Chase run on the opening day. I’ve gone each-way NRNB at 20/1 with Bet365 on a horse I may have mentioned, once or twice, in the past COCKTAILS AT DAWN. Bought for a 6 figure sum back in ’12 this horse has always been highly thought of. And yes I know I’ve been going on about him ever since. He was decent over hurdles but it is chasing that he was purchased for and is a horse that terrible cliché ‘whatever he does over hurdles is a bonus’ certainly applied to. However, to date fences and Cocktails At Dawn haven’t been a perfect fit and he has a formline of -2F4 this term over them. Off just 135 at Cheltenham though he certainly has the ability to go very, and I do mean very, close and it is still not beyond the realms of possibility that he could, in time, turn into a 150-160 rated performer. You can guarantee that Mr Henderson’s brilliant brain and ‘magic hands’ will have done everything possible to bring Cocktails At Dawn’s jumping up to scratch and to prove just how well handicapped he is – on undoubtedly his best run over fences to date, at Ascot, the old boy beat into 3rd Garrahalish (by 6 lengths when giving Garrahalish 7 pounds). That one is now rated 134. Meanwhile, he beat Strollawaynow into 4th (by 51 lengths when giving Strollawaynow 10 pounds). That one is now rated 118 after winning a novice handicap and proving competitive off such a perch. Regular readers this NRNB wager is Recommended with a capital ‘R’. You know what to do...
Well that's a surprise - Barney backing one of Nicky the Needle's Mind you, I have also done one of the Seven Barrows Scientist's charges - I took 16s on Bobs Worth a couple of weeks ago. Cannot see him lengthening and it was NRNB best odds guaranteed so we'll wait and see.
Just wondering to myself here, in the World Hurdle - what horse does Fehily ride? He gets 2nd choice on Nicholls horses which would guarantee him the Zarkandar ride(4th in this last year when unsure about Stamina) but he is also Fry's retained rider and has Rock on Ruby who is completely unproven at the distance.
Very interesting question with them both right up there at the front of the 'World Hurdle' market. However, ‘Touchy’ Fehily is certainly not Harry Fry’s ‘retained’ rider. They may have a verbal agreement of sorts, for him to ride when available, but there is most deffo no retained element to it. Also, he doesn’t get 2nd choice on Mr Nicholls horses (in the same way that ‘little’ Sammy doesn’t, in the main, get 1st choice). Mr Nicholls know how to treat a NH saddle monkey like a NH saddle monkey and these days seems to be placing who he wants on animals – ‘little’ Sammy for instance is allowed nowhere near either his top rated steeplechaser or highest rated 2 mile hurdler! Fehily also has some sort of agreement with Chris Giles & Potensis, who own a few horses including the above mentioned Silviniaco and Zarkandar, but I’ve no idea as to the exact complexities re this. He’s ridden Rock on Ruby in his last 14 races and as CityHull points out has a great affinity with the animal but I guess these ‘agreements’ will sort out who he eventually rides in the ‘World Hurdle’
I read something on Twitter about him not 100% making it. Rumour no doubt but fact hes drifting doesn't look good
One I like at a tasty ew price is devilment for john ferguson in the triumph at 33/1.was impressive the other day and im suprised he is such a big price.also entered into freddy winter but hoping he is triumph boundy
Now that NRNB is in play, i think an EW alternative for the Arkle would be Three Kingdoms at 25/1. Gave weight and a beating to Solar Impulse last time out without jumping very well showed his class to get back up. Where as Jossies Hill received weight from him and was all out to win by just over 2 lengths. On top of that he was within half a length of Vilbrato Valtat who is 2nd fav at 5/1. Big value.
Interesting tward.i wont be touching udc, way to short, fallen before and no course experience.will be takinh him on!
