Tips / Bets Cheltenham 2021 - Ante-Post Bets

Mares Novice Hurdle - Gauloise 12/1

Mullins has won all 5 runnings of this, all with French recruits, 4 of them 5yo and the one exception being Concertista who was able to run in the race twice after finishing 2nd as a 5yo the previous year and maintaining her novice status. She beat a 5yo French recruit trained by Mullins to win it last year. The evidence suggests that 5yo French recruits trained by Mullins are the goods in this race. This filly fits that profile and was very impressive on her first run over hurdles, showing excellent cruising speed and slick hurdling. The owner is having incredible success with mares in the last few years, whoever is buying for him is doing some job and looks like they have hit the target again. A good win tomorrow would see her made clear favourite and if she follows up in the Solerina she could end up a very short price favourite come the day.

I had backed Princess Zoe for this but they changed their minds once she won the Group 1, too good for the jumps apparently even though the owner was giving it big licks about a Cheltenham winner being his dream.

 

One of the most complicated races to bet on at the Festival is The Foxhunters Chase.The great difficulty happens because the immense majority of the participants are great strangers except for the old glories that end up here.

If you don't subscribe (and I don't) to the very few pages that are specific to point-to-point, which is where most of the runners come from, it's almost impossible to find any information. In fact if we look at the current market, and as I said before except for the old glories, more than half or three quarters of the horses will not ring a bell.

I have already written that my favourite for last year, and for this one if I could run, was Caryto Des Brosses. And I say "was" because after the injury that prevented him from running last year nothing more has been heard from him.Therefore, in the search for news to find out if he is not going to run anymore, I found something really striking when trying to find news about him through a horse that is much better known.

Hazel Hill was the winner at the Festival last year and this year he has not raced due to injury. He returned a couple of weeks ago at a point-to-point where he was a big favorite (1/3), but was surprisingly run over by a mare, Highway Jewel, no more and no less than by 25l.

It is clear that other horses have yet to come out to race here but Highway Jewel's performance cannot be overlooked. It's true that my idea for this race was (is) another horse that is not yet classified either but I don't think he will have any problem doing it, but with the current mare's odds it's worth taking the risk. If the rules for this year are the same as for the previous years I think she would still have to win another point-to-point to qualify or be among the first two in a under rules race. We also don't know if she will run at the Festival because she is only six years old, or if her owners or trainer want to do it but the fact that all the bookies except one have her on the market might be a clue.

Don't be fooled by the statistics that appear in the Racing Post for example. If we look for her, only her first two races appear in 2018 when the truth is that after those races she has won four times more, and her victory over Hazel Hill at the beginning of this month does not even appear. On the contrary, if we look for Hazel Hill's name, we find that result.

It's a speculative bet, like so many others, but with those odds we can try it without going crazy.

Foxhunters Chase

Highway Jewel 40/1 e/w with Betfair, PP and Unibet. Others 33/1.

 

Thanks all - spreadsheet updated with the latest ante post slips..

 

Paddy Power are now offering Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) on all races at this terms Cheltenham Festival.

 

Given the Paddy Power news I’ve gone

Put The Kettle On - QMCC 12/1
Protektorat- Marsh - 14/1

EW double

PTKO
Envoi Allen 10/11
Double

Protektorat
Chacun 5/4
Double

and a bigger double on

Envoi/Chacun

Will post rationale for the QMCC ones in that thread.

Marsh ones - Protektorat due to run Saturday over intermediate trip. They’ve got Allmankind for Arkle and don’t see why they’d step this one up to 3 miles given how well he jumped. (Also got Shan Blue in yard)

Given NRNB I think the 14s is value, given two points -

likelihood of relatively small field - Envoi should scare many off. 3 places at 14/1 EW looks very fair when easily could end up with 7 runners

Shortening potential. If he wins Saturday he would probably shorten, although small field declared Saturday. He looks an obvious one from UK side and worth having one from UK with all the worries about travel arrangements and the like.

 

Albert Bartlett - Ashdale Bob 20/1

The Navan Novice Hurdle has a great track record of producing leading novices in Ireland and I think this years winner has been slightly underestimated due to not having a sexy profile. He was 14/1 and a few of the talking horses bombed but he was impressive and the form looks quite high level in the division.

He runs in the G1 on Sunday against the well touted Bob Olinger, who has looked classy and is a major fancy for the Ballymore, but 2m4 in heavy ground at the top level is going to be a proper test of him after his public gallop maiden win. Ashdale Bob is not as flashy but with form in the book and the promise of more to come im backing him at 4/1 all day long.

If Bob Olinger is the real McCoy then he likely goes joint fav for the Ballymore and even a decent run in 2nd would make Ashdale Bob a big player for the 3 miler. I think hes an RSA horse for next year but there is currently no standout in the 3 mile race and he could just put himself in pole position at the weekend.

 

Great thanks guys I will add them to the spreadsheet.

Its not beyond the realms of possibility that the irish wont be able to make the journey over to the festival which starts in a little over 9 weeks time. If you think about it, it is not a million miles away and the government haven't ruled out the possibility of lockdown lasting until end of March.

Can you imagine that? Cheltenham with no crowds and no irish trained runners. This would be a huge shame as we wouldn't get to see so many of the stars but this will certainly provide opportunities for smaller trainers in England/Wales and Scotland to make their presence felt. Less wealthy owners will also have the chance of having a Cheltenham Festival winner instead of it being dominated by some of the big powerful owners (Ricci, O'Leary etc).

There is a risk that those with big ante post vouchers on the irish trained runners will have bets sunk even before it all starts although I would like to think the bookmakers would refund those bets if none of the irish can travel over due to government restrictions. As the festival steadily approaches, if transmission rates are still near the levels they are now, there is a real chance that something as bizarre/weird as this could happen and the festival could be very different.

 

Win Accy my 4 bankers here

39.8/1 non runner no bet with Paddy Power

 

Cheers Ron. I guess two of those might not make it over to the Festival....fingers crossed thats not the case.

 

That will change it to a double Pops. That's why I took the reduced NRNB

 

btw , did you back Bernies Boy the other day eddie ?

 

Im not one to aftertime

 

I have had a few goes at the supreme which probably says i dont have a strong fancy for it, Flinteur Sacre bombed but my other 2 were Meiter 33/1 and Third Time Lucki 25/1, was close to taking 14s Appreciate It but didnt and that ship has sailed now.

I wont be betting anything else but think Third Time Lucki is still decent value at 16s, he wasnt far behind Appreciate It in the bumper and has looked the part over hurdles so far, would be unbeaten but for that farcical gifted lead at Cheltenham. He won a race at Kempton which Menorah won en route to the Supreme, and he could run in the betfair hurdle which has been a decent pointer in the past. He gets 5 pounds off Metier in that so he would have to be winning it to have any chance off levels at Cheltenham.

There was shades of Vautour about Appreciate It and hes probably going to be a strong favourite on the day, but Third Time Lucki looks the last value for the e/w scum.

 

recall it did you a good turn last xmas , you had a good run going , and that one topped it off ....... probably hasn't won since then until the other day .......

 

Yes remember it well, it was during ascot tho im sure, the saturday last day of meeting, not xmas, havent backed it since

 

obviously my memory is playing up , time speeds up exponentially with age , in a subjective view !
yer dads name , and an anniversary ?

 

Chemial Energy for the champion bumper 18/1 with Skybet 3 places. I think this is potentially the best bumper horse we've seen in Ireland this season, certainly when you've Sir Gerhard in at 3/1 compared to this lads odds, not much separates them barring the colours they carry. A good strong gallop would suit this lad down to the ground, he is bred to stay and the fresher spring ground won't cause him much harm the way he carries himself.

My one and only foray into any ante post market for this year. Let's hope he gets a run.

Spueculate to accumulate

 

The dream is over.

 

Afraid so. RIP