Tips / Bets Cheltenham 2021 - Ante-Post Bets

Yes, Cadran or Cesarewitch.

 

Wouldnt touch her in a Champion Hurdle. Theres way too much air when she jumps a hurdle. A line through Darver Star and Epatante has her well held. They would be mad not to stick to Mares.

 

Goshens price of 4/1 is mental! The horse could hardly jump a hurdle all season and then put in a lovely clean round until a final hurdle shocker (can you trust him). Then you have his age he will be 5 next March, stat against him. Then you look at Triumph horses attempting Champion Hurdle, stat against him. Most Triumph hurdle horses turn out to be stayers and the fact that he wins 2m races on the flat only confirms that he will need a trip to be seen in a better light. Then you have the fact that the Moores want a few flat runs into him before his first hurdle in January possibly. Not a great prep for a CH horse carrying my money. Hes got a flat rating of 88 and is very well treated but he would need to be running in the long distance cup at ascot or the cesarewitch and that rating would need to be 105+ before i would give him any sort of chance in a CH.

 

Supreme - Ferny Hollow, Malone Road, and Ballyadam are all Chevely Park so its a guessing game were they will end up. Only good thing is that willie trains Ferny so he might not care where the other 2 go. Ferny looks a serious animal and they finally figured out that it needs dropped out at the back. Hard to knock but the bumper winner hype rarely lives up to expectations as seen by previous winners. With the aintree and punchestown meetings abandoned and the bumper form held back its hard this season so im waiting until we see a few runs first before dabbling. One to keep an eye on in the Ballymore is Bob Olinger 25/1 and i expect that to be hell of alot shorter in a few months

 

A few more:

Ballymore

Ballyadam 16/1 e/w

Gold Cup

Minella Indo 14/1 e/w

Mares Chase

Elimay 10/1 win only

 

There is a 99% chance that the same thing will happen as with Gin On Lime last year but I take that risk. He won in March in France and now with Elliot.

Triumph

Quilixios 25/1 e/w

 

Micro Manage trained by Willie Mullins goes for the Irish Leger this weekend and Ruby says hes being aimed at the Supreme in March. He started off on the flat breaking his maiden at the second time of asking beating South Pacific easily, who is now rated 101. He then had a set back and was off for 8 months then returned to win a handicap by 12L over 1m4f. He was then put away with a view of a hurdling campaign aimed at running in the Triumph. However he had another set back and didnt reappear until last month were he finished 3rd in a Group 3 only beaten 2.5L over 1m6f. Missing the Triumph could have been a blessing in disguise as now a year older he can race in Supreme. He does have his issues but if he wins the Leger on Sunday and they can keep him healthy he could be a big player in March.

 

RSA

Commander of Fleet 33/1 e/w

Ryanair

Imperial Aura 25/1 e/w

 

I think the Bumper looks a poor race and id be surprised if any of them won a novice hurdle at the festival next year.

Havent looked deep down the list but Flinteur Sacre stands out as the leading candidate for the Supreme at this stage, he has far more ability than any of the horses who ran in the bumper. The concern with him would be that like Sprinter Sacre, he wont come into his own until he goes over fences and that natural exuberance and power on the bridle is fully put to use. If he turns up fit he will be bang there at the business end but could suffer the same fate of many a good Henderson horse of getting beat in this race despite being the best horse in the field.

 

Why do you think the bumper looks a poor race when bar Ocean Wind and Glancing Queen who have been running on the flat all the horses that finished top 8 havent seen a hurdle yet. They didnt even get to finish their bumper season cos of the virus.

 

My eyes tell me.

 

Japs eye

 

NH Chase

Run Wild Fred 20/1 e/w

 

Hi All,

I have put together a spreadsheet to track ante post bets like I did for last years Cheltenham Festival and will keep it updated right up until ante post betting stops.

At the end of the festival I will give an overall strike rate and declare who has been the most successful Not 606 poster ante post betting wise and give some info on how successful it has been overall. I think the success rate last year was around 16% so lets see if we can do better.

The moderators have not confirmed that there is any available prize money for this year so it will just be extra quodos and a feather in your cap..

Please keep posting details of your ante post bets (dont be afraid to do so its just a bit of fun) so that I can keep some decent records.

 

Does anyone know when Pertemps qualifying starts again???

We’ve got the mists, we’ve got the mellow fruitfulness, all we need now is the Pertemps qualifying…

 

I don't really like ante-post for Cheltenham- Bookies' cramped prices for horses; multiple entries for some; possible injuries for others.
However, there is one horse I watched very closely last year- and was probably the most improved staying hurdler in training.
Prior to Cheltenham last spring, he started off winning two three mile handicaps- his second off a 136 rating.
He was then put novice chasing, winning his first and then ran second, well beaten by Fakir D'oudairies (who named that one!)- but jumped poorly.
Put back over the hurdles, off 145 in a Pertemps Qualifier, he gave 29lbs to a real improver on the third leg on the third leg of a four timer- Treacysenniscorthy (and who named that beauty!) - and was beaten only a length.
Now not many stayers win- or finish placed- in top staying handicaps carrying 11st 10lbs, in England or Ireland, and I took the 25/1 ante-post for the Stayers Hurdle.
Ridden by a jockey I don't like, Brian Cooper, he got him hampered twice on the run to the last; then struck into; and lost a shoe.
Up the hill, he really rallied but couldn't get to surprise winner, Lisnagar Oscar- finishing second.
He's 20/1 ante-post at the moment, but I'm waiting for him to be declared before backing him- just in case he's not tried over fences again.
He's got yet another great Irish name. Ronald Pump.
Maybe he was a bad lad at school!

 

Mares' Chase to replace Novices' Handicap Chase at Cheltenham

I know a few already say that there are too many races at Cheltenham now but I think the addition of a Mare's Chase will be a good thing...

Salseretta is the current 6/1 fav

They are taking one out, so it's still the same number as previous...

 

I am looking forward to the mares champion. Chase and mares gold cup too. Plus the lady jockeys race and the race for military folk who are related to the Queen.

 

We'll need another day then Nass...