Tips / Bets Cheltenham 2021 - Ante-Post Bets

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Just trying to keep track of mine in one post.

At this stage I have:

Arkle - Shishkin 5/1and Envoi Allen 141

Champion Hurdle - Goshen 6/1, Concertista ew at 25/1 and Saint Roi ew 33/1

Mares - Honeysuckle 4/1

Gold Cup - Santini 8/1 and Al Boum Photo 6/1
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Hi all,

You might recall that I was keeping a record of ante post bets placed from the Cheltenham festival this year just to see how successful some bets were. Unfortunately my spreadsheet is not complete as I did not have all the information but I have highlighted those bets in green which were winners (on best case scenario they were each way).

In total out of 73 bets placed by those across the forum, only 12 were successful which gives a winning bet ratio of just over 16%. So if you are thinking of placing an ante post bet for Cheltenham next year, approach with caution is what I would say.

 

16% is quite a good strike rate at decent prices. Not a bad showing

 

Did the 16% make a profit, I would guess so?

 

Not sure Mal as didn't have full bet details..the ones highlighted in green are indicated as winners assuming bets were placed each way..

 

I had Ferny Hollow at 33/1 and Monkfish at 20/1. I don't do each-way on ante-post bets because you are investing twice the money and the ****ty each-way terms are usually 1-2-3 and a fifth of the odds, so there is zero value when you already have the risks associated with Ante-Post bets and even getting a run. You need to get the full benefit of the win odds to offset the inevitable losing bets.

I was talking to someone recently and they were planning an ante-post each-way bet on a 50/1 shot. As I explained to them, the fifth of the odds for places 1-2-3 meant that you would get 10/1 for a place. £1 ew would give you a return of £11, so for a £2 stake you are betting 9/2 your money. 9/2 for a 50/1 shot is awful value and I think you would be better doing two horses and splitting the stake to get the full odds of one of them wins.

 

First bet for Cheltenham 2021 (courtesy of Zig Zag Zyggy):

Arkle Chase

Captain Guiness 20/1 e/w

 

Firstly, can I say that I can’t believe its only around 6 and a half months until the next edition (pandemic permitting) of the Cheltenham Festival. Cor blimey it only seems like 5 and a half months since the 2020 renewal. Time, flies, fun and all that…

Anyway, enough rambling. Down to brass tacks. If there is currently an anomaly in the markets then it may be in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and the 20/1 offered re FLINTEUR SACRE. This 5YO, in my opinion, has a huge amount going for him being from a yard that has won the race twice since ’16, being a full brother to a total, and I do mean total, superstar (Sprinter Sacre) and showing in 2 racecourse appearance a huge degree of promise on his debut and then a hint of potential greatness on his follow-up mission.

Flinteur Sacre debuted at Newbury back in January showing, in the process, undoubted potential before backing that up at Kempton Park, in scintillating style, with an absolute facile success. The way he travelled and quickened that day was truly mesmerising and was the sort of high-class performance that you very rarely see on a racecourse

I have no idea when he will reappear this term (I’ve unfortunately, as I said a couple of weeks ago, been blackballed by Lieutenant Henderson, as a result of me furloughing one of his Privates, so can’t put in a call to Seven Barrows) but am eagerly awaiting the reappearance of Flinteur Sacre who from what he has shown so far looks quite possibly something special.

Given all that I think he has going for him in terms of what he has displayed on the track, his undoubted potential, lineage (it needs to be remembered that as well as being one of the best chasers of the past 50 years Sprinter Sacre also ran a close 3rd in a Supreme Novices Hurdle) and stable form in the meeting commencer I wouldn’t have been surprised to see a quote in the region of 9/1 to 12/1 for that event. Given the actual odds currently being offered I think these represent value and I’d discourage no regular reader from taking them.

 

I do think Honeysuckle at the moment is a very much Backable hard to see Benie going for this race again! Owners love the mare races they will want to regain her crown I’m sure and without Benie this will be an absolute Penalty kick for her.

 

Yes the safest thing is that she will run there again but maybe they will be tempted to run the Champion Hurdle despite Epatante.

 

No Foxhunters, love that race.

 

For me it has to be (i). A real 'cheaters charter' of a race.

Hang your head in shame though, old boy. I can't believe you want to take a race away from our beloved Corithians!

 

What do we think about Easysland then??? He’s as short, in some places, as 6/4 for the X-Country. For me that quote is Bonkers with a capital ‘B’.

Don’t get me wrong I think Easysland capable of winning the heat by half the track but say this as (i) due to the fragility of the breed I’d want bigger re any horse even getting to the meeting 6 months prior to ‘tapes up’ let alone winning a bally race there and (ii) there has to be a chance that connections will show some ambition and go for something like the CGC or Grand National (with a prep elsewhere) instead. Rather than run in the much more mediocre waters of the X-Country. He’s 33/1 for the former, incidentally, and 25/1 for the latter.

Good horse but given the above would you take 6/4 right here, right now??? Not for me.

 

6/4 is stupid.

In June I bet on him for the National 25/1 e/w together with Kimberlite Candy 33/1 e/w.

 

No. He was my banker at 5/1 for this year and I would be interested in him for the 2022 GN. He is still only a 6yo

 

In regards Easysland it is a question of him being the “banker” for antepost accumulators.

So if you answer these and it might suggest whether the price is right now -

1 - what percentage chance do you think he is of turning up in the XCountry?

2 - what price would you expect him to be on the day of the XC if he does turn up?

I would say he is 80% of turning up, a 1/5 chance of either being injured or going for another race. I can’t see JP targeting him elsewhere so I think it’s more injury risk.

If he turns up I have him as a 4/6 chance. I don’t see anything other than Tiger Roll in opposition and he is much more likely to improve than TR is!!

So you are getting 6/4 about a 4/6 chance with a 1/5 risk (so evens the double) So I’d suggest the price is about right.

 

Mares Novice Hurdle - Princess Zoe 12/1

Turning into a bit of a fairytale this horse, owner is all about Cheltenham apparently and has backed it for this race, shes now won 4 on the trot in Ireland including a strong listed race, looking every inch the jumping type, loves soft ground, travels, stays, shes made for Cheltenham. They are considering running in the Cadran at Longchamp before going hurdling.