Tips / Bets Cheltenham 2021 - Ante-Post Bets

Santini and Champ would be my 2 at this stage

 

The things with Champ is, he got so far back because of his jumping and if he did that in a Gold Cup that wasn’t run at a fast pace (this seasons wasn’t run as a fast race) he will be so far back when the taps get turned on.

ive been looking at the race sectionals from the festival and the RSA wasn’t especially spectacular

 

Champ reminds me a little of Synchronised!

 

Gypsy Island for the mares novice is one that stands out for me!! Along with Paisley Park at 7’s supposedly It was just a one off and we have seen horses come back from this before! So could be a very big price!

 

Funnily enough that is the horse I was thinking about when I watched his RSA win back. I could only see him winning a Gold Cup if they went so hard that it turned into a slog. Even then I don't think his jumping is good enough to be able to stay with the pace. He is obviously a talented horse, but they've got to get him into the race earlier if they go an even pace.

 

not for me. I think we will find the juveniles to be very modest with him the exception but even then I think he’s going to find open company much tougher

 

Some horses who will never win at Cheltenham (let alone the festival again)

 

I do agree but feel he has a touch of class about him something that Synchronised I think lacked! Synchronised I still don’t know how he won that day!! (Very sad about him in the National I must add) interesting they are talking about the king George for him which surely won’t suit him at all!! One horse I think would be interesting is Ok Corral but could just be short of what is needed but definitely of interest!

 

Put The Kettle On (because it’s something my mum always says when I see her)
Lisnagar Oscar (I backed it for the RSA prior to the season)

and god knows. A mare of Mullins.

 

I thought Allaho ran an absolute screamer in the RSA. Only 6YO and having only his third start over fences (8th lifetime start) he was a surprising favourite to me on the day given the circumstances of his career thus far. He kept on well enough in 3rd behind Champ and he is two years younger than the winner. 6YO is no age for a Chaser and if we think Champ is a good bet at 14/1 for the Gold Cup then surely Allaho has some chance of catching Champ up by next year given the age difference?

Both Champ and Allaho have ground to make up for next season. Champ is now rated 161 on official ratings, while Allaho is only 157, meaning that they are a good bit short of what it would take to win a Gold Cup. They are both within the feasible range to develop into Gold Cup contenders though. Looking at Al Boum Photo, he was rated 159 at the end of his Novice season and landed the Savills Chase that started him on his path to his first Gold Cup win.

Looking at it, I think Allaho might be the best value at 25/1 of the new faces on the scene.

Santini looks a solid candidate for being the biggest danger to an Al Boum Photo hat-trick. He has few miles on the clock and is a thorough stayer. Lostintranslation is respected but the trainer is not in the Henderson class when it comes to Festival success.

Allaho 25/1 and Santini 8/1 would be my two against the field.

 

Allaho would be my pick for the Ryanair given how strongly he travelled and failed to pick up when asked up the hill. I know lots of people were touting him for the Marsh rather than RSA and watching it back he looks a non stayer to me.

 

This year's Bumper may have been above average. Going into the race I had noted that Appreciate It had already recorded a better effort on RPR figures than Envoi Allen had been awarded for winning the previous year's Bumper.

Envoi Allen won the 2018 Bumper with a performance of 135 on Racing Post figures and Appreciate It went into this year's race with a 138 under his belt already. I thought he was a good bet to win an average renewal but on the day he could not cope with Ferny Hollow, who finished with a good rattle to win decisively. Ferny Hollow was beaten on his first two starts but the stable were a bit out of sorts when he made his debut and after his slightly disappointing second race the jockey stated that he had wrestled half a ton on half horse/half bear in a gruelling race and that there was unfinished business to be had with the horse at the festival. The Racing Post awarded Ferny Hollow 141 for his Bumper win, while Appreciate It was repeating his previous run with another 138 on their scale.

The 1st and 2nd from this year's Bumper clearly have appeal as Novice Hurdlers for next season. Ferny Hollow is a year younger and is a big strong boy who arguably has more scope but perhaps his size was the reason that he was very sticky at his fences when winning his Maiden Point To Point. Hurdles are not as high obviously but slick hurdling can be a big advantage. Both horses are quoted in the Supreme Novices, Ballymore and Albert Bartlett Hurdle races at next year's Festival but surely they are not the type who would need the 3 miles of the latter race. Looking at a list of Bumper winners and comparing it to the Supreme Novices winners list just doesn't bring up horses who won both, so perhaps that was an early warning for anyone who backed Envoi Allen for the Supreme this season. Of course he went on to win the Ballymore and logically you would think that the trends pointing to that race being the best target for Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It.

On balance I would take a chance that Ferny Hollow can become sharper over hurdles and the pace of a Ballymore should be more forgiving than a Supreme in terms of fluency requirements. There is no need to play this far from the 2021 Festival but if forced to nominate one now it would be:-

Ballymore Hurdle Ferny Hollow 16/1

 

He's a young and inexperienced horse though and I think it is dangerous to be 100% sure of anything based on only one run. For a short runner to be beaten only 2 lengths is not totally damning as far as I am concerned.

If one horse didn't stay in the RSA it was Battleoverdoyen. He didn't seem to get home over 2m5f the time before behind Faugheen but he travelled OK earlier in that race and again in the RSA he wasn't out of it until the latter stages, where he weakened quite markedly. I suspect if the Elliott horse has any hope it is going to be over shorter than they have been trying him at.

It doesn't say much for Champ's showing at Cheltenham if he simply outstayed a short runner by two lengths and that is indicative of the varied way we look at races as punters, where we sometimes see one negative aspect but then forgive it when thinking about horses tied to the same form line.

There is always that doubt about the extra distance in a Gold Cup, compared to the RSA from the year before, but several RSA winners have gone on to win the Gold Cup and even the Grand National, so to rule out a horse beaten only 2 lengths in an RSA is very much a personal opinion and I am not trying to put anyone away on the behalf of the bookies here.

 

Just started watching day 2 of the festival. Whilst Champ has the engine he was so ponderous at his fences. Took an age to get from one side to the other losing momentum so many times. 10/1 for 2021 Gold Cup is a joke of a price based on that performance. Apparently they'd done loads of work on his jumping prior to the RSA as well so I'm not sure even Yogi Breisner can make Champ a respectable jumper of fences. Not for me.

 

I think I've been put off Champ for the Gold Cup: That leaves me with just Santini at present, although it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if , Al Boum Photo made it 3 in a row

 

After watching 4 days of Cheltenham my biggest dream was 'please reduce it back to 3 days' and stop having races that mean other races are weakened. Grade 1 inflation at this single meeting is over the top.

 

I noticed Gary Nutting on ATR has put up Monkfish for next year's RSA Chase. That seems fairly logical given that he won this year's Albert Bartlett.

Watching the Albert Bartlett, I thought Monkfish had ruined his chance when he missed out one hurdle completely but he got going again and held every chance coming for home. My initial feeling was that he was going to get run out of it and finish a close third or fourth but he dug in late on and found enough to win it and land my ante-post bet at 20/1.

My main interest in Monkfish was because he seemed an assured stayer and Mullins had described the horse as desperately green, so improvement seemed assured. That looked a solid Albert Bartlett, with the clear first four in the betting filling the first four places and they were 10 lengths clear of the 5th placed horse.
The downside for anyone wanting to think about next season's RSA is Envoi Allen sitting as favourite for the race at 7/1. He's still unbeaten and though he won a weak looking Ballymore this year he did it easily enough and his OR of 160 is 8 lbs in advance of Monkfish.

Monkfish is also in the betting for the National Hunt Chase, where the first four from the Albert Bartlett fill the same spots in the betting for next years race. Reduced from 4m to 3m 5f 201y it is still a plodders race in my opinion and with amateur riders as well it is very much a poor relation to the RSA from my point of view.

I don't think I could get involved in the RSA until we have a better idea of who is going where early next season but for sure Monkfish will stay in my mind after hearing an excited guy in the local bookies shouting at the screen in the closing stages and crying out "Come on Spunkfish"

 

He reminds me of Monsignor. They both had/have huge huge engines.