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Cheltenham 2020 Ante Post Thread

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Pilgrim, Nov 13, 2019.

  1. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Horse just got stabbed in the foot and had surgery, doesnt really matter if hes a 170 horse or not, hes out of the race.

    Klassical Dream, provided he can turn around form with soon to be 9yo Petit Mouchoir, and provided his stablemate remains on the sidelines, only has a couple of juveniles whos form looks about 145 level to beat. Granted his own form doesnt amount to much more than 150 and he needs soft ground.

    Given that Klassical Dream already has 10 runs over Hurdles, hes not going to improve, worry for him given his limited ability is if one of those juveniles do happen to improve.
     
    #81
  2. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Let’s throw Getaway Trump back into the mix. He is a 150s hurdler and given the lack of competition in the sphere it would be no surprise to see him revert to hurdles after a couple of jumping mistakes over fences.

    surely if he did, he would be bang in contention for the Kempton Christmas hurdle
     
    #82
  3. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting Saldier out now till early next year not entered at Xmas time was 14-1 earlier this morning! Wierd market really
     
    #83
  4. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Sweet Jesus. Klassical Dream was racing over hurdles at the age of three for some pretty much obscure trainer in France. He had more than a year off the track and only made his debut for Willie Mullins after being gelded and didn't start out until Boxing Day. He's 4 from 5 for Willie and will be brought to a peak for Cheltenham in March, rather than for his comeback run that be meaningless in any serious CV for a horse.

    A little bit to prove for Klassical Dream but he remains one of the few who might go out and post a decent figure and one that might bear scrutiny. We have seen how awful the Apples Jade and Supasundae formlines have been. They were consistently overrated and from going off 7/4 Fav for last season's Champion Hurdle Apples Jade is now 66/1 for next season's renewal. Supasundae is 40/1 for anyone who gets on the "You never know, if it comes up heavy enough" bandwagon.

    The Champion Hurdle has been mediocre for a while now. Buveur D'air looked like he might be able to bring a touch of class to the division but it hasn't happened at all and I am disappointed with that. Looking back he beat a 10YO My Tent Or Yours who had come into that Champion Hurdle on the decline, down to a rating of 154. Of course, the Handicapper always raises them for Championship races and My Tent Or Yours went up 8 lbs at the age of 10YO.

    I reckon Klassical Dream is not a write off for improvement at 5YO if My Tent Or Yours can find 8 lbs as a 10YO. I reckon that whole era, of My Tent Or Yours, The New One, Jezki and Yanworth were all overrated and I feel the form book shows it for anyone willing to interpret it with unbiased eyes. Yorkhill and Vroum Vroum Mag were other consistently overrated horses.

    I think there is more to come from Klassical Dream.
     
    #84
  5. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Klassical Dream is 4 from 10 over Hurdles and was well beaten on his first try at open company, the 2nd and 3rd from the Supreme have been beaten a combined 100L in a few starts this season, the 3rd from his Punchestown "G1", was beaten 28L by Honeysuckle and 18L in a handicap off 144.

    If anyone is overrated its him at 160, has done nothing to earn that rating and superstars dont tend to lose 60% of their races. Would be the worst Champion Hurdle in years if this one paced soft ground lover was good enough to win it, seems unlikely though since he struggled to deal with Petit Mouchoir who was beaten 7.5L by BVD in his prime.
     
    #85
  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Your grasp of jump racing seems very poor Eddie. That's a very embarrassing standard of debating as well.
     
    #86
  7. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    I will translate that as you cant dispute any of those facts, 160 rating unearned, lost 60% of his races over hurdles. Lost to a horse that has been well beaten multiple times by BVD.

    Klassical Dream needed 2 horses to get injured to come back to the front of the betting, and youre giving it big licks again.
     
    #87
  8. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    No, you need to translate it as me saying that you cannot read jumps form.

    You are seriously lacking skills if you are quoting a horse's percentage of wins. Anyone with the merest modicum of intelligence could tell you that has **** all relevance come the Cheltenham festival.
     
    #88
  9. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    PS, I never lost faith in Klassical Dream. I said all along I thought Saldier was bad value and Buveur D'air was living on past glories from mediocre seasons. This season looks little better, hence the selection of Klassical Dream at 10/1. As long as he runs I will be delighted win or lose. It's a tough game this ante post, there are always some injuries and then sometimes we just make a **** selection to begin with. Difference is that some of us can accept when we have picked a duffer and don't wander off into Mills And Boon happy ending scenarios.
     
    #89
  10. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Course you will be delighted if he loses, you always come out smelling of roses no matter what happens, always happy enough.
     
    #90

  11. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    I do always find this thread quite amusing in the main as people look for the alleged value in a race in March early doors. Not much value though if your horse doesn't even line up even if you are sitting on a ticket of 33/1 or similar.

    I pay little attention to ante post markets for Cheltenham as I think you can still get some value on the day in the handicaps especially. I would rather have the cards more stacked in my favour knowing the ground, opposition etc. Still even though I don't pay much attention, the price of 50/1 for Bristol de Mai i the gold cup did jump out at me as covered earlier on this thread.

    I might if I get the chance put a spreadsheet together of all ante post bets on here from not606 posters so please feel free to put them up. This will just be for a bit of fun, so we can get an overall percentage of failed/successful ante post bets, best/worst ante post not606er, best price on successful bet, most successful race for ante post etc.

    I would just be intrigued to know what the success rate is etc....if people not interested fair enough.
     
    #91
  12. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Far more failures than successes in the past Pops - I had a 33/1 Gold Cup ticket for Don Cossack the year before he won it - when he ran in the Ryanair instead. So not only was my ante post bet sunk, I also backed him for the Ryanair on the day and he came 3rd. Needless to say I didn't touch him the year after when he won the Gold Cup <laugh>

    The best one I landed was Thistlecrack at 20/1 for the World Hurdle, struck before his seasonal reappearance in open company. I think he won at around 6/5 on the day.

    I haven't bothered the last few years because, as you say, there are plenty of good bets to be struck on the day and it is getting more difficult to identify potential targets, especially with the novices. But I have had one this season as stated above - Coeur Sublime 25/1 e/w Champion Hurdle with Ladbrokes.
     
    #92
  13. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    I 'll add it to my spreadsheet Oddy when I get that going.
    I can't quote any Oddy as I have never done an ante post bet for Cheltenham. I have only done two in my life and both those were on the grand national some years ago..both lost too :emoticon-0100-smile

    So I always maintain my discipline and won't be tempted. Regarding the champion hurdle I wonder if Elixr de nutz will turn in to a live outsider for that race. Don't think he has been out yet this season, is pretty useful and think he has been forgotten about in some ways. I read the Tizzard's hope he will turn in to a champion hurdle contender. Could be the dark horse to emerge from the pack.Interesting...
     
    #93
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  14. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Yep I think we might see Elixir de Nutz in either the International or Christmas Hurdle
     
    #94
  15. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    It’s an interesting one, I think there is something in following horses that you have liked at the previous festival, currently got some fancy prices for Lostintranslation for the King George and GC and also got a bit on Kalashnikov for the Ryanair both of which because I saw them at Cheltenham last season.

    plenty of dodgy antepost bets, it’s hard to get one right a few months in advance!
     
    #95
  16. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I don't really care if I don't get a run for my money on the day. That's all part of the gamble. If I manage to get to the race with the selection. It opens up options however.

    Depending on the odds a horse is on the day, a ticket at a higher price, sometimes significantly higher, gives you the option of hedging your bet to a certain extent. Nothing wrong with backing several horses for the same race as long as the odds warrant it.

    In addition, betting at really big prices costs very little and provides an interest in the early parts of the season, where odds are often very restrictive on horses kicking off their careers. We saw Klassical Dream beaten at 2/5 and Ferny Hollow was beaten at 8/11 but they are pretty much favourites for the races where I played early at 10/1 and 33/1.

    Plenty people decry Ante-Post betting but it is self evident when you back a 33/1 shot that the chances of winning are negligible. For me, bad ante-post betting is when you go balls-deep on something at poor odds.

    It would be interesting to see the stats on ante-post but equally I reckon the reading of the stats on when people are betting on the day, chasing losses, backing on races they hadn't studied and over-betting poor value runners might also be an eye-opener.

    I doubt many punters actually keep a record of their wins AND losses. We all have bets we should never have placed and I would rather lose a few quid on something at 20/1 than be trying to wire in at 2/13 in a prep race.

    Klassical Dream should go off favourite for the December Hurdle and if he wins it he should be quite a clear favourite for Cheltenham. Honeysuckle is unlikely to run and I think Envoi Allen is becoming the next hype horse at as low as 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle. He is favourite for the Supreme and the Ballymore and surely for once somebody can be patient enough to wait for another year to go for the big one. There seems an obsession with going for the jackpot before the horse has left sprog-hood behind.

    Klassical Dream is decent enough at 4/1 given the current picture. He COULD start 2020 at a good bit lower figure.
     
    #96
  17. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    You don’t keep a record of your wins and losses? How do you improve?
     
    #97
  18. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    That's quite a strange thing to say...would you throw £20 notes of a bridge for fun and enjoy getting nothing for it?

    I can't see how that is enjoyable one bit not getting a run -trying to second guess where your horse might run. And in the end you get no run at all....

    If I have a bet, I want to see the race and I want my horse to line up. I see no enjoyment seeing your hard earned squandered and nothing happening for you for it.

    It's about having discipline when you are betting.. if I am having a bad day I will never chase my losses. I am sure plenty do and get too carried away on the day. But it's just a bit of fun 're my analysis of ante post..i would genuinely like to know success rate etc..it's not for me and I m not gonna say told you so but I would like to do some analysis..
     
    #98
  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I suppose it depends on one's philosophy.

    I have had plenty of bets where I did get a run for my money but the horse ran like a sack of crap. There is no enjoyment in that for me. There is no crumb of comfort from the fact that I got a **** run for my money.

    My philosophy is that one successful ante-post bet can pay for the whole festival if the odds are big enough. It's all about the challenge and the dream of a big winner who might go off quite short on the day. It's not for everyone but it's far from throwing money away. Most interests in life cost money and could equally be, sometimes literally, looked upon as pissing money away.

    Vive La Difference.
     
    #99
  20. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I suppose chucking £20 or so at Cheltenham ante post bets is no more waste of money than a packet of fags. Each to their own
     
    #100
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