Not one for ante post betting myself but I did read one of the racing websites was currently quoting 50/1 for a certain Nigel Twiston Davies runner for the Cheltenham Gold Cup with Betfair and Paddy Power. That's some price for last years gold cup 3rd...which I m sure you can guess who it is.. The horse is set to skip the king George and have a nice little break before running at Cheltenham in the Cotswold chase which will give him some nice practice ahead of March. So a slightly different preparation and quite interesting. Trainer was on record as saying at one point he thought Bristol de Mai was the likely winner last year. Still relatively young surely for ante post fans the 50/1 represents good value as an each way play on Bristol de Mai in the gold cup. Thoughts anyone?
One negative would be that they are targeting the Cotswold Chase with him, which hasn’t been a great prep for the Gold Cup. I’m sure everyone knows my opinion on the Betfair chase and Lostintranslation but if that form goes literally for the rest of the season then BDM would look value at 50s.
Bristol de Mai has never won at Cheltenham in 4 attempts (2nd in the JLT, 7th in CGC, 3rd in Cotswold Chase and 3rd in CGC) - I just don't think he is that effective on the track. Clearly his CGC 3rd last season is the pick of that form but (and time will tell) I don't think it was the strongest of renewals. Admirable horse though he is, I just don't see him as a Cheltenham horse.
The chances of a horse being effective at both distances are probably equivalent. Not every 8f horse can run at 10f, not every 2 miler can run at 3 miles, but it's quite common that one can. It's not common that a horse is effective at 7f to 10f, and it's not common that a horse is effective from 8f to 12f. THEREFORE, the chances of a horse who can run 2 miles being effective at 3 miles, is similar to the chances of an 8f horse being effective at 10f, ie quite high. Midnight Run being decent at 2 miles is no particular detriment to his chances of being good at 3 miles as well, it's a pretty standard distance range for horses in that sphere.
just the 5 single figure antepost favourites for Dylanthomas so far with no case for any of them, thanks for the insight, perhaps he will write the names of a few more favourites before march so we know, 5 bankers and its only november
If it came up soft it could be interesting. Trainer has been banging the drum for a while that BDM can act on other tracks but maybe it's about getting him cherry ripe..does seem like he could be a bit fragile. Al boum photo, native river, sizing John and Don cossack (just looking at last 4 winners) had never won at Cheltenham prior to winning the gold cup so you never know. It just seems trainer is focused on one prize now following the defeat in the Betfair from a horse who had race fitness on his side. I think it's quite dangerous to rule him out. I always remember when Imperial Commander won the gold cup. You wouldn't have had him in the same league as Kauto Star/Denman but on the day the twisters delivered the goods. Just can't believe I m seeing 50/1 for horse I think might well place.
Last season's Gold Cup looks poor in retrospect. I felt all along that Presenting Percy was a terrible favourite, at an abysmal price all the way up to the race. He never really looked likely to be involved in the race and finished 8th. In that Gold Cup race Native River was struggling to raise a gallop right from the off. He was gritty in staying on for fourth place but never seemed at ease on the much faster ground than he encountered when outstaying Might Bite the year before. Might Bite was amiss last season and was pulled up in the Gold Cup, Thistlecrack was also pulled up, while Kemboy unseated rider at the 1st fence. With the quietly fancied Bellshill also pulled up and Grand National horse Anibale Fly finishing 2nd, I got the feeling that it was probably the best set of circumstances and ultimately would represent the best chance Bristol De Mai would ever have of winning a Gold Cup. The next Gold Cup looks a tougher one, with defending Champion Al Boum Photo being joined by big improver Kemboy and the up and coming Lostintranslation at the head of the betting. Santini has also been tipped up for the race, although I thought his comeback was poor enough to cross him off my list of candidates. Current EW terms are 1/5 odds and only 3 places. That means 10/1 a place and the question of whether Bristol De Mai can make that 3rd spot at least? I can't see it myself.
Imperial Commander was only beaten a nose by Kauto in the Betfair and was 3rd choice at 7/1 for the Gold Cup. Nige made a **** of it with his comments before and after the only race BDM has any chance of winning, he wont be winning this season unless its a prep race at 1/12.
BDM is a tough heavy ground grinder , doesn’t take a lot of racing and by the spring has cooked his eggs , plus the ground is often not his favoured , it’s obvious that he likes one track above all others , it’s not a criticism, just a fact , class horses act anywhere .
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Blue Sari available at 25/1 with 2 bookies.. That looks generous given his only defeat was btn ¾L by Envoi Allen who is 4/1 fav Also entered in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and is 16/1 for that with Envoi Allen 6/1 fav
At the moment the Irish challenge for the Champion Hurdle seems to hinge around the Morgiana being a true Grade 1 - what do you guys reckon? Saldier just ahead of Klassical Dream in the betting at 4s and 5s. BVD out to 10s after the injury and the two Henderson 4YOs yet to run this season. The only slightly appealing play I can see at the moment is Coeur Sublime at around the 20/1 mark. I was very taken with his reappearance at Down Royal and if you look back at the Triumph he was travelling better than anything coming round the final bend but just got outstayed up the hill in testing conditions. Given he is currently double the price on Envoi Allen () the price makes some appeal. I can imagine Elliot will step him up to Grade 1 over Christmas and if he can win convincingly at Leopardstown his price will tumble for the CH. I might even get my dad to stick a cheeky 20 quid e/w on him with Ladbrokes
BVD is long odds against to even make the race id say, how long does hoof take to grow? seems like it will be months with no serious work, really bad luck I seem to be putting on some poor animals recently Midnight Run had a very strange looking half fall after jumping the second the 2nd last today, had been wide all the way and was just getting outpaced in the straight, he done well to not go down but was virtually pulled up after, hopefully no damage done and back on track over 2m6 next time Obrien said before the race it was a fact finding mission to see if they needed to go up in trip, I could have told him before the race but given the history of the race, its no bad thing for an albert bartlett horse to run in it, this is a complete throw out run for him please log in to view this image
Ferny Hollow was 2nd on his debut for Willie Mullins today. Of course the "Shrewdies" were on at 8/11 Fav, rather than risking the horrors associated with Ante Post betting. Although beaten, Ferny Hollow went down by a couple of lengths to a promising Joseph O'Brien horse and there is plenty of time before Cheltenham for improvement to come. The Fairyhouse Bumper was won last season by Envoi Allen and I suspect there will be future winners from this renewal as well. Ferny Hollow is now a general 14/1 for the Chelenham Bumper, so although a win would have been preferable you would have to be satisfied holding a 33/1 ticket on a horse rated 128 by the Racing Post for his performance. It could be overrated of course but when considering that Envoi Allen was rated 119 on RPR for winning the same race last year, even a ball park figure indicates a decent platform to begin a career from. The bet is still alive although there is a long way to go and a lot of pieces need to fall correctly in the jigsaw puzzle. However, anyone who took odds-on on his debut did their dough chasing small reward. Each to their own.
My old man managed to grab some 25/1 e/w for me on Couer Sublime with Ladbrokes for the Champion Hurdle this morning. He's been nibbled at after being declared for the December Hurdle at Leopardstown (on Dec 29th), a race which will be devoid of Saldier, who has "had a setback" according to Mullins. Interestingly, Elliot has also entered two of his best novices for the December Hurdle (Abacadabras and Envoi Allen) and the impressive Hatton's Grace winner Honeysuckle is also entered alongside the likes of Klassical Dream, Supasundae, Apples Jade, Aramon and Sharjah - basically the best of the Irish Champion Hurdle challenge. Should be an informative race.
BVD out of the race. Saldier setback. Klassical Dream backers out of jail. My interest in jump season over before it began really.
One of my questions regarding Saldier was whether he might bounce after the win that had followed a long absence. I am not sure he has the pace for a Champion Hurdle, as he was under pressure before staying on to win last time. Klassical Dream is likely to be favourite for the December Hurdle and it's a race he needs to win to get back on track for Cheltenham. Honeysuckle arrived in the Hatton's Grace but she beat off Apples Jade in third and that horse has looked past it so far this season and Bacardys is no world beater. Honeysuckle shortened for the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle but beating Bacardy's and Apples Jade over 2 and a half miles is a long way from Glory over 2 miles at THE Festival. Honeysuckle's connections have said that, although she is entered in the December Hurdle, it is unlikely they will run her. Probably wise, especially bearing in mind that Mullins took on the Champion Hurdle favourite with Saldier first time out. OK he won it but at what cost? With Buveur D'air likely to be out for a fair time, if not for the rest of the season, it would take more than a stubborn belief that he is still a 170 rated horse with 10 lbs in hand of his field, in order to win back the title in March. If Klassical Dream wins the December Hurdle with anything much in hand I would expect him to be quite short for Cheltenham. Coeur Sublime hosed up last time and was raised from 145 to 155. Triplicate, who was third there beaten 26 lengths was awful next time when beaten 48 lengths and I would worry that the 10 lbs rise may have been a bit much and he probably would need to improve another 10 lbs to win the big one. He is young and unexposed though and open to plenty of improvement and it's looking a very open affair at the moment. Saldier and Honeysuckle look bad value at 6/1 and 10/1 and Pentland Hills is getting skinny now at 8/1. Paddy Power have Coeur Sublime tight now at 12/1, I wouldn't want to be betting 12/5 a place first three. Unless he wins the December race I can't see his price contracting much and if he is not involved in the finish he could drift back out.
