Dlauro runs tomorrow (Punchestown 1,10 Maiden Hurdle). Dlauro won the only PTP that ran by 6l, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th have won later a PTP a Novices’ Hurdle or a Handicap Hurdle. Immediately after winning that PTP he was bought for £430,000 at the Cheltenham auction by Joseph P. O'Brien for the Australian Lloyd J Williams. The horse had several injuries and couldn’t debut under rules until the end of last season in a Punchestown bumper winning the race by 11l, 2nd, 3rd and 5th have won later. Earlier this month he was bought by JP McManus. It’s really strange that the horse has been sold by its owner after paying so much money when it seems to have a bright future. He may have been afraid if the horse is injured again or maybe he had an offer that he couldn’t refuse. Dlauro is 25/1 for the Supreme, 14-25/1 for Ballymore and 20/1 for Albert Bartlett. I have a bet 25/1 for the Ballymore Hurdle since June.
Looking at the Triumph Hurdle betting I saw Micro Manage as low as 10/1 with some firms as the Favourite. That would be short enough for me and it is surely the fact that he is trained by Willie Mullins and has quite a high Flat Rating (OR 107) that makes his price as short as it is. The Triumph is always tricky, so I like to get one at big odds early, just for an interest in the build up to Cheltenham. The main thing for me with Micro Manage is whether stamina is assured. He has won at a mile and a half but the Dam's other offspring ran at shorter and the one who tried his hand over obstacles was pretty useless. I am not sure I would automatically take the horse over the sticks given his progressive look and pretty decent Flat ranking. He sits as a very similar horse to the ill-fated Sir Eric at a similar. Willie Mullins says he has been schooled and is an excellent jumper of hurdles. The current plan is to send him hurdling but the other issue for me is that he suffered a stress fracture after his last run and will therefore not be seen until next year. I think with any favourite that you need to cafeful in balancing odds offered against risks involved. Alan King's Trueshan is very prominent in the ante-post market and he earned a Flat rating of 109 for upsetting Ebor Favourite Hamish last time out. Meeting the Haggas horse 6lb worse in than if it were a Handicap, Trueshan stayed on best after looking as if Hamish was travelling the better. On the negative side King felt that his own horse was floundering in the soft ground as well, stating that good, good/soft would be better than for his horse. The key thing is that Alan King said this on his website:- Reflecting on the performance, Alan said:”I thought we were in trouble when Hamish loomed up alongside, but Trueshan battled on really well. “We have schooled him over hurdles, but he won’t be going jumping. Instead he’ll be off on his winter holidays shortly. Not much point in backing a horse not going to be hurdling, so Trueshan has to be passed on. Goshen is the other horse close to the front of the betting. Gary Moore's gelding was not much cop as a 2yo but he has been progressive in rising to 88 (OR) on the Flat. He won his first Hurdle race easily but it was a Fontwell race where he was 4/11 Fav and his RPR of 135 for that win is nothing special as things stand. You would think other Flat recruits coming Jumping have as much scope at least and be coming from a higher starting point. Wanting 33/1 for an Ante Post play, I went with Rayapour. Rayapour is a son of Mastercraftsman out of a Sinndar mare and he was progressive this year in France for Alain Du Royer-Dupre. Starting in April with an effort rated 78 by the Racing Post, he finished in July with a second place in a Listed race in France, which was ranked 101 by The Racing Post. Stamina and soft ground are unlikely to cause problems for Rayapour and he has that tempting ex-French profile of a horse who could improve greatly for being sent to Willie Mullins and being gelded. Rayapour obviously finds himself in a stable packed with talent but Wiilie Mullins described him as "A nice horse to look forward to" while Ruby described him as "An exciting prospect". Both men explained that the gelding operation meant that it would be after Christmas before Rayapour made his debut but I like his profile and a winning debut would surely see him shorten quite a bit. Given the doubts expressed on some of the others, I like the 33/1 on Rayapour in a tricky contest. Triumph Hurdle Rayapour 33/1 for an early dart at a board about half a mile distant from the oche. (Bullseye unlikely warning.)
Timeform were less impressed by Midnight Run and awarded him 136p compared to the Racing Post's 148. 148 seems a bit high to me. The Racing Post have raised Envoi Allen's rating to 149 but he remains only 1 lb ahead of Midnight Run and Abracadabras. All three horses are entered in the Royal Bond, a Grade 1 over 2 miles on 1st December. Perhaps Midnight Run is not going to run but I would find it hard to tie in a horse being targeted at a Grade One at Fairyhouse over the minimum trip, if he was a 3 miler in the making this season? If he were to run, and win, surely the trainer would be hamstrung in taking him to the Supreme if he can turn over the current favourite for the race?
Commander of Fleet ran in the same race for Gigginstown before running 2nd in the Albert Bartlett last season. Very Wood also ran in it before winning the Albert Bartlett for them. Penhill ran in the race before winning the Albert Bartlett for Mullins. Obviously if he goes and wins it then they will have to consider the 2 mile route but will likely be done for speed and then up in trip. Midnight Run is a 3 mile chaser in the making, hes not going to be a specialist 2 miler but these good novices can run anywhere from 2 to 3 miles no problem, its only at the top level they will get found out by specialists. The difference between 2 and 3 miles in jump racing is probably equivalent to the difference between 8f and 10f on the flat.
Very powerful case you've made against it. The difference between a 7f horse and a 10f horse is greater than the difference between a 2 miler and 3 miler on the jumps imo. Horses like apples jade and faugheen winning from 2m to 3m are ten a penny. There really isn't much difference physically once you start getting into 2 mile plus horses, they are all slow stayers. It's far too common that horses are competent at both 2 miles and 3 miles to compare it to 8f - 12f or 7f-10f, my gut judgement is 8f - 10f is most accurate.
Faugheen is ten a penny? Yeah ok. How about Roaring Lion, Saxon Warrior, Deauville. Yes, the first three home in the 2018 Irish Champion stakes, you've got a QE2 winner, a Guineas winner and then a horse who ran in races from trips of 8 to 12 furlongs. The difference between the two codes is stark, the reason you see horses trying different trips over obstacles is because of longevity and lack of need to appease the breeders. To say there isn't much difference physically is just an odd statement, without even moving away from a trip. Take the Gold Cup, you've got Lostintranslation who is a very different type to Might Bite, who is a very different type to Native River who is a very different type to Kemboy. My laugh was at you trying to compare the two codes, it is two totally different sports, comparing the two for me is missing the point of each sport.
Isn't Eddie a massive flat fan? For me flat racing is s**t and boring in comparison to national hunt racing which is much more of an exciting spectacle and rather importantly more down to earth with the people. Still each to their own. The forum is more active too when the jump racing gets in to full swing which says it all...
Horses that win over 2 miles and 3 miles are ten a penny, I gave two well known examples, there are countless. Solwhit from 2 miles to world hurdle, kauto star tingle creek to gold cup, my way de solzen world hurdle to arkle, numerous gold cup horses running well in supremes. In contrast, in flat racing its rare that a horse can can win from 8f to 12f at the top level, they tend to be champion 3yos. Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior are good examples of 8f to 10f horses, they are common, neither stayed 12f and neither would win at 7f. You'd struggle to find many 2 milers that don't stay at least 2m4. Mechanically might be a better word than physically to describe what I mean, the difference mechanically and anerobically between a 6f horse and a 10f horse, is far greater than the difference between the horses running over 2 and 3 miles in jump racing, despite the shorter distance range. The same novices head the betting for all 3 novice races, multiple champion 2 milers were able to win the 2m5 novice race. If you have a good novice hurdler it can run well in any of the 3 races. The best of them have the most speed and earn their place in the shorter distance races, the 3 miler is generally the race for the 2nd tier novices or horses in the 3 to 4 mile range. Horses like native river are a different range, 3 mile to 4 miles, those horses don't win top races at 2 miles, which is what we are talking about here. The further you go the wider a horses effective distance range as after a certain point its mainly a stamina test, there isn't much difference between 2 milers and 3 milers, that's my point.
Post 1 - 8 to 10 furlongs. Post 2 - 7 to 10 furlongs Post 3 - 8 to 12 furlongs or 6 to 10 furlongs Seems that you are more like a NH horse than a flat horse. Always changing your distances.
I can't continue to debate with you if you can't read nass. I'm writing on my phone so maybe I have not explained myself well but you have definitely misread at least twice. Faugheens being ten and penny and now with the distances. I said 8-10f and I have not changed that, I made a point that the difference between 7f and 10f is too great to show why I have to go with 8 and 10 as being more accurate a comparison.
Post 1 - "The difference between 2 and 3 miles in jump racing is probably equivalent to the difference between 8f and 10f on the flat." Post 2 - "The difference between a 7f horse and a 10f horse is greater than the difference between a 2 miler and 3 miler on the jumps imo" Post 3 - "In contrast, in flat racing its rare that a horse can can win from 8f to 12f at the top level, they tend to be champion 3yos." and " the difference mechanically and anerobically between a 6f horse and a 10f horse, is far greater than the difference between the horses running over 2 and 3 miles in jump racing" It seems you can't debate without changing the goalposts either. I can read, one of my many talents, I am guessed I am blessed.
As I added to previous post, the point about the difference between 7f and 10f being too great is my logic for thinking 8 to 10f is more accurate. I have not changed my opinion that 8 to 10 is accurate, everything else has been attempting to justify and explain my logic for that opinion, not change it.
so shall we get back to that original quote? "The difference between 2 and 3 miles in jump racing is probably equivalent to the difference between 8f and 10f on the flat." Today we have a mile race at Southwell, 12 runners and only 4 don't have experience over 10 furlongs. The one at Kempton 9 of the 14 have tried 10 furlongs or more. Two miler at Wetherby - 0 from the 7 have tried 3 miles. At Hereford - 2 from 11 under rules have tried 3 miles (a few have tried in P2P). Unfortunately we don't have any 10f or 3 milers today to compare.
I’ve missed the point in that direct quote? No, you’ve put your point across badly and the quote as I stated originally is hilariously bad.
Hilariously bad, and rubbish, better change my opinion then eh? Not sure what I done to offend you since a couple of days ago but I genuinely can't continue as you've misread multiple things and failed to comprehend the original quote.
You've not offended me, I just find outlandish remarks like the one you made about the comparison between two milers and three milers needs challenging, which i've done and I think most people on this forum would agree with me that the comparison to 8 to 10 furlong flat horses is inaccurate, hilarious and needed challenging. The thing is, I agree with you in terms of the broader point you were making, quality horses can get away with lots of negatives in terms of ground, trip, course etc Then when they step up to a grade where they meet horses of the same or similar ability they get found out by horses that are more specialised over the given set of race conditions. However, that is very different to the line that you ended on, whereby comparing horses switching between 8 and 10 furlongs, and horses running over 2 and 3 miles. That line in my opinion is wrong, and is what I challenged.
You didn't challenge it, you made a snide comment with no reasoning. And you still don't understand my point.
Humour me then, what is your point in ""The difference between 2 and 3 miles in jump racing is probably equivalent to the difference between 8f and 10f on the flat." If it isn't a direct comparison between horses competing in 2 and 3 mile races and the 8f and 10f race?
