It's also worth bearing in mind that the 11th richest man in Wales actually owns the 2 favourites in the market for the Supreme. Will he want them to clash or will one of them be re-routed to the 'Ballymore'???
A lot will depend on Al Dancer’s next run id say, of the two I’d be more likely to suggest he’d run elsewhere
That is true, but my point is that Battleoverdoyen won't be 6YO until June, whereas Champ will be 7YO on 23rd March.
Coincidentally, talking of horses stepping up in trip come the ‘Cotswold Chase’ read in ‘The Weekender’, at lunch time, that Paul Kealy (their ‘flagship tipster’ – the publications words not mine) is ultra keen to see Mister Whitaker go for that race ahead of a tilt at the CGC (he claims to have taken big prices re that one for the race). Mister Whitaker is also a possible for a 21 furlong handicap at Ascot on Saturday but Mr Kealy hopes he runs at Cheltenham 7 days later. Didn’t realise until I read his words that this one is actually a half-brother to Broadway Buffalo who was 2nd in a 4 mile NH Chase so you could say that he could do very well up in trip - time will tell, I guess. Currently, Mr Whitaker is 66/1 for 2019 CGC glory – and you can get that NRNB.
I think Mister Whitaker is a very interesting e/w angle for this years CGC. Clearly loves Cheltenham and stayed on nicely in the old Betvictor Gold Cup over what is surely these days an inadequate 20 furlongs.
Connections of definitly red who won the Cotswold Chase last season stated that the horse wasn't at his best in the gold cup as this race left it's mark on the horse. (along with it being too soft). Perhaps that is a factor. I have a feeling Definitly Red will perform a lot better in this year's gold cup and could be a decent each way bet. Probably not for win purposes but he could finish in the top 4 especially as this year he will be fresh for the race. Horse seems in good fettle and has done nothing wrong this season putting to bed a number of decent yardsticks.
Surely Mister Whitaker is a better bet for this weekend off 152 in a Handicap at 8/1 if he is a Gold Cup contender? He needs at least a stone and a half improvement to be in Gold Cup territory. He was beaten off 152 last time. He has never actually raced at Gold Cup trips either and while entered in the Gold Cup and handicap races at the Festival, connections say the Ryanair is "Very much his target" Unless you have NRNB it's likely money down the pan for the Big One itself.
“Could improve for step up in trip” (A bit like why Native River finished last in the Challow Hurdle. But probably immaterial if they are thinking Ryanair).
Re Mister Whitaker he is currently somewhat ‘blue’, on Oddschecker, for next Saturday’s ‘Skybet Chase’ at Doncaster. The old boy certainly has options over the course of the next 9 days! The big question though is will connections choose the right one. Over to you connections…
You cannot compare Native River to Mister Whitaker. Native River was 4YO in the Challow Hurdle and finished a weakening 6th of 6. Native River had won the Welsh Grand National over 3 miles 5 Furlongs by the age of six. He went into the Cheltenham Gold Cup that he won rated 166 and it was 3 years and ten weeks after his Challow Hurdle run. Mister Whitaker has just 57 days to improve to Gold Cup level and if he can't win off 152 in a Handicap it would seem unlikely he will win a Ryanair. Of course there is still scope for Mister Whitaker to improve at his age but his Festival win in the Close Brothers Handicap race came off a mark of 137 and that's a different level to Ryanair and Gold Cup races. People can back the horse if they fancy him but I was making the point that he's highly unlikely to run in the Gold Cup and surely a non-starter if he can't win on Saturday.
Really good news to see that earlier today, my old fave, Yanworth was given an entry in the ‘Stayers Hurdle’. He’s been back at Barbury Castle for a month now and is obviously in good health and showing connections plenty. 40/1 (or 33’s NRNB) available.
It was a rather childish attempt to demonstrate that horses can improve out of all recognition for a step up in trip. Let me try a more appropriate one - Imperial Commander won the Paddy Power Gold Cup over 2m4f off a rating of 139 and later the Ryanair when rated 156. Neither of these would necessarily scream Cheltenham Gold Cup winner would they? My supposition was that the step up to the Gold Cup trip MIGHT bring about enough improvement in Mister Whitaker to have an e/w sniff at Cheltenham however I stand duly corrected and apologise wholeheartedly for having dared to post such clear nonsense
OddDog, I am not denying that Mister Whitaker could improve for stepping up in trip. The huge factor against him is that he doesn't have the time to improve that previous improvers had available to them in the past. Imperial Commander had already improved to 174 when he was at the same stage Mister Whitaker is currently sitting at. He had gone into into the Betfair Chase rated 165 and ran Kauto Star to a nose, earning a new official rating nine pounds higher. He lined up in the Gold Cup rated that 174 figure and after beating Denman his mark was increased to 185 by the Official Handicapper. In the Aintree Bowl I thought he was generously priced at 11/8, given that he was top rated by 23 lbs but he jumped poorly and was struggling when unseating. He was a horse with problems and never got near his career best again. Imperial Commander was 9YO when he won the Gold Cup, compared to Mister Whitaker at 7YO now. Perhaps in a year or two Mister Whitaker will be running over further and have a good bit higher rating but he is a long way off for the moment and the clock is against him for this year's Ryanair and Gold Cup. Personally speaking, I would have been looking to have run Mister Whitaker over 3 miles by now if the target was going to be the Gold Cup. If he waits another week and goes for the Doncaster race at 3 miles and it turns out he doesn't like the extra distance, it leaves a negative fairly close to the Festival. Anyway, I don't see the need for the tone of your reply. I am only giving my opinion on the horse's Gold Cup chance this year and if he's not going to be running in it any backers would lose their stake without the NRNB in place. I thought this was about helping each other beat the Bookies?
66/1 ew NRNB with several firms Mister Whitaker rates a decent bet. I think many of the established protagonists have question marks (including Native River who benefitted from a light campaign last time but has been out of his comfort zone twice already this season). If he goes Ryanair then fine, money back.
Another novice chaser I have my eye on is Winter Escape. He ran a lovely race last Sunday at Punchy giving a stone and a hiding to a decent animal in a Grade 3. Not sure where he's headed, maybe JLT (around 14/1) however I read somewhere that the Arkle isn't ruled out. I can't even find him listed on oddschecker in that contest currently. He has entries at both 2m and 2m 5 at Leopardstown in early Feb and I will be interested to see where he goes.
