Cheltenham 2019 Ante Post Thread

Frodon is a fascinating horse for the festival, I think he is improving still and if the form of the weekend is to be believed then he ran right up to his mark (or even passed it) and at 161 he has similar handicap mark to many placed horses in the last five Ryanair chases.

 

Lets get real fellas. Frodon was put firmly in his place at last years Festival. He falls into that category of extremely good handicap horse but not quite good anough to mix it in the championship races. Similar comment applies to the other one she rides a lot, Black Corton.

 

I don’t know about that. Last year there was something amiss.before that this horse was very progressive. I’d be having a tilt at the gold cup.

 

Frodon is much better than Black Corton. I think the first run this season shows that his festival form was under par. I think by the time he got to the festival they’d bottomed him, with that great win on heavy and then two/three weeks later on soft at Ascot (Waiting Patiently routed them). If they are more sympathetic this season we will see him placed in the Ryanair.

Add in he will be ridden by Bryony and not STD, and that makes a difference too.

Not saying that he’s going to win it, but would you state that he’ll finish behind Cloudy Dream et al?

 

Waiting for Draconien.

 

I still think Mr Whitaker can improve somewhat from his effort on Saturday. With more juice in the ground he could well be a serious player in the Ryanair..

 

I was very impressed with Lalor this weekend. Jumped and travelled really nicely and then put some decent sorts to the sword with the minimum of fuss. Interesting that the current 2 favourites for the Arkle represent their only realistic festival contender for the trainers Amy Murphy and Kayley Woolacott. What pressure that must be to have all your festival eggs in the one basket 4 months away from the big day. Of the 2 I thought Lalor's debut was far more impressive than Kalashnikov. He certainly jumped better. I do hope one of these 2 wins but I wouldn't be taking 7/1 at this stage. Because both horses are with under the radar trainers I can see their price drifting a bit nearer the time. One at a decent price I've been impressed with in his 2 starts this season is Joseph O'Brien's Le Richebourg at 25/1. However he's already gone over further than the Arkle trip so his festival destination is hardly certain.

 

After finishing runner-up at Grade 2 level last week, at Cheltenham, Pym has been left on 138 by the old boy handicapper. I’ve no idea what Lieutenant Henderson (if he’s other targets in mind I bow to his superiority) has in mind but now that he has qualified for the race the Coral Cup looks absolutely, to me, made for this horse. 138 would have gotten him into 4 out of the last 5 runnings of the race and you would have to be tempted to send Pym straight there. Will look forward to seeing the market open re this race.

 

Bad news:

Draconien is out for the season.

 

Draconien is still widely quoted on Oddschecker, which is a disgrace but nothing new.

I disagree that we'll get better odds on Lalor nearer the time. Unless he gets stuffed he will continue to shorten. In fact there is no 7/1 left on him now.

Can't wait to see Lalor again. I am sure a good win will see him shorten.

Part of my reasoning is that Kalashnikov goes to Plumpton next (Dec 3rd) and he's unlikely to put in a statement showing at that track. His Chase debut was rated 141 by the Racing Post and that won't win an egg and spoon race at the Festival. Obviously open to loads more but needs to prove himself to warrant being favourite for the Arkle.

In comparison Lalor was rated 160 for his chasing debut and that is an excellent start to a Chasing career. For comparison, last year's Arkle winner Footpad began his season with a run rated 155 at Navan. Even Altior recorded only 160 for a 63 length win over Black Corton on his chasing debut. The Arkle winner of the previous season, Douvan, recorded 153 in his first chase so the general pattern suggests 160 on your first attempt chasing is a good start. Obviously, improvement is required and it has been a good era for Arkle winners with several really talented winners over the last decade.

I respect Kalashnikov but I like the Lalor form far more at this stage. I also like that he has Cheltenham form in the bag, whereas Kalashnikov hasn't run there yet. Others may emerge but Lalor has set a decent benchmark and is worthy of being favourite for me.

 

That's a Bold statement stick. I'm sure it's nothing Persilnal though.

 

Yeah that 6/1 will look tasty until the Saturday before the festival when they announce she goes for the mares race.

 

I have a bet 12/1 for the Champion Hurdle.

 

Laurina is appalling value at 5/1 and 6/1 across the boards. Mullins describes her as "Special" but she won probably the weakest contest they have ever added to the Festival in the Grade 2 Mares Novices Hurdle. Cheltenham is getting desperate in watering down the quality with egg and spoon races that are boring to watch. What next? Categories such as the old quiz show Ask The Family? The next race is for Mother and Elder Child only?

Laurina has an official rating of 152 and that is way short of what it will take to land a Champion Hurdle. She has scope of course but it will be a culture shock taking on better hurdlers than those she has faced so far. Jumping will be more of a factor and there will be more hustle bustle than that faced when beating low quality opposition. Vroum Vroum Mag was supposed to be the second coming but, despite Brough Scott having multiple orgasms about her on Channel 4 one day, she was a hurdler stuck in the 150's on ratings, and a hype horse akin to Yorkhill, who never really delivered on the promise of his JLT win despite having a substantial fan club.

I backed Buveur D'air for the 2018 Champion Hurdle when he was 5/1 and although he was not too impressive in landing it, I went out straight after the race to back him for the 2019 renewal. I feel the division has been weak for several years since Faugheen was in his pomp and the Henderson horse looked capable of putting in a hat trick when I saw him land his first title.

Assuming all is well with Buveur D'air I think he will make history in March without much fuss. He is 10 out of 11 over Hurdles and the only two to best him were Altior and Min in what was a good looking Supreme Novices in 2016. While it's true that he has faced many simple tasks because he has not really been taken on by the best around until the Festival, he still churns the wins out and is one of the few you would back to put in a 170 or slightly better run come the Festival. There is also the possibilty that he may be odds-on come March if the main rivals do not deliver as the hype is suggesting they wiil.

 

I bet Laurina in April.

 

Laurina non runner in Ascot.

 

I’d love to know how much money was put on others in the race before this was declared. Very typically Mullins

 

The drying ground is said to be why Laurina misses Ascot. Not good news if it's decent ground in the Champion you would think then?

Shocking value at 5/1 for the Festival. All her form so far is on Heavy, Heavy, Soft (Heavy in places) and Soft/Heavy (Heavy in places) That's got to be a concern until proven otherwise. Trained by a no name trainer she would be 20/1 for the Champion.